California Statewide Megathread (non-governor)

[I’m not Stu]

Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) is just under 60% in the primary vote totals in a Hillary 59-36% state senate district. Looks like she’s not in any serious trouble for November.

The only Dem challenging Allen’s vacated assembly seat, Josh Lowenthal, is only at 37% in the primary vote total. That seat is almsot definitely going R in November.

Probably. 63% in AD-72 voted GOP in the primary. Tyler Diep probably wins. Janet Nguyen is very popular, more popular than Tom Umberg.

[Maxwell]

Republicans also managed to get locked out of Rocky Chavez's old assembly district, the first guaranteed D pick-up.

[DINGO Joe]

lol Republicans got locked out of the Lieutenant Governors race it looks like.

The Lt Gov R's actual got a slighty higher % of the two party vote than the R Gov candidates, probably because they had a couple of Hispanic candidate for Lt Gov.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/eleniforca/status/1009570000032522241?s=21

Feinstein endorsed Kounalakis. The parallels are pretty funny. Both Feinstein and Kounalakis are wealthy white women from San Francisco running against Hispanic State Senators from Los Angeles.

Governor: Newsom (San Francisco)
Senate: Feinstein (San Francisco) vs De Leon (Los Angeles)
Lt. Governor: Kounalakis (San Francisco) vs Ed Hernandez (Los Angeles)
Attorney General: Xavier Becerra (Los Angeles)
Insurance Commissioner: Poizner (Bay Area) vs Ricardo Lara (Los Angeles Area)
Treasurer: Fiona Ma (San Francisco)
State Controller: Betty Yee (San Francisco)
State Superintendent of Public Education: Marshall Tuck (Los Angeles) vs Tony Thurmond (Bay Area)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For those thinking that Clinton was the Democratic ceiling in California, it looks like a virtual certainty that at least Betty Yee will top her 30-point margin in November. She currently has a 62-34 lead in the primary with a liberal third party getting the remaining four percent.

The Democratic ceiling is 100% in the Senate race.

[I’m not Stu]

The Democratic floor in the Senate race is 100%. The Republican ceiling is 0%.

[Frodo]

Want to know how deep a hole the California Republican Party is in?  Check their voter registration numbers county-by-county:

How isolated are California Republicans? Let’s go to the map

[OSR stands with Israel]

Want to know how deep a hole the California Republican Party is in?  Check their voter registration numbers county-by-county:

How isolated are California Republicans? Let’s go to the map

Such a far fall from when the map looked like this:

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Want to know how deep a hole the California Republican Party is in?  Check their voter registration numbers county-by-county:

How isolated are California Republicans? Let’s go to the map

The party’s geographic woes don’t mean it’s impossible for Republicans to win in Democratic-leaning cities and counties. Republican Kevin Faulconer has been elected twice as mayor of San Diego, and last month, the GOP’s John Lee’s won a seat on the Los Angeles City Council, despite the Democrats’ 54% to 12% lead in the city.

Fairly easy to do when all local candidates run as 'nonpartisan'. Wouldn't be surprised if more GOP State Senate/Assembly candidates start running as 'nonpartisan/independent' ala Steve Poizner

[Oryxslayer]

Want to know how deep a hole the California Republican Party is in?  Check their voter registration numbers county-by-county:

How isolated are California Republicans? Let’s go to the map

The party’s geographic woes don’t mean it’s impossible for Republicans to win in Democratic-leaning cities and counties. Republican Kevin Faulconer has been elected twice as mayor of San Diego, and last month, the GOP’s John Lee’s won a seat on the Los Angeles City Council, despite the Democrats’ 54% to 12% lead in the city.

Fairly easy to do when all local candidates run as 'nonpartisan'. Wouldn't be surprised if more GOP State Senate/Assembly candidates start running as 'nonpartisan/independent' ala Steve Poizner

Except even poizner, with his history of goodwill, crossparty endorsements, benefited from downballot dropoff, vote and power-base in normally deep-blue Silicon Valley, was unable to get things to work out. Too many loyal minorities these days, and I'm saying that as a Poizner voter. If more GOP'ers try that route, then the well gets even more tainted.

[DrScholl]

Republican strength being larger in rural areas fits with the trend in other states. Rural California started trending Republicans decades ago and before that it voted somewhat like the south (Carter did quite well in parts of the Central Valley). Interestingly enough the current Republican center of strength in the state is full of descendants of settlers from Oklahoma.

[Tintrlvr]

Want to know how deep a hole the California Republican Party is in?  Check their voter registration numbers county-by-county:

How isolated are California Republicans? Let’s go to the map

This says the Democrats are only one point shy of the Republicans in Kern County by registration. Is that true? Is Kern really only dominated by the Republicans because of crap turnout among Hispanic voters?

[Tintrlvr]

Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) is just under 60% in the primary vote totals in a Hillary 59-36% state senate district. Looks like she’s not in any serious trouble for November.

The only Dem challenging Allen’s vacated assembly seat, Josh Lowenthal, is only at 37% in the primary vote total. That seat is almsot definitely going R in November.

Probably. 63% in AD-72 voted GOP in the primary. Tyler Diep probably wins. Janet Nguyen is very popular, more popular than Tom Umberg.

This one is striking. Janet Nguyen of course went on to lose the general election to Tom Umberg despite getting 58% of the vote in the primary.

[DrScholl]

The primary numbers aren't that predictive of anything in swing districts because the primary turnout is quite light in midterms or in presidential years it's skewed toward the party with a contested primary.

Want to know how deep a hole the California Republican Party is in?  Check their voter registration numbers county-by-county:

How isolated are California Republicans? Let’s go to the map

This says the Democrats are only one point shy of the Republicans in Kern County by registration. Is that true? Is Kern really only dominated by the Republicans because of crap turnout among Hispanic voters?

The registration is 34.87% Republican to 33.13% Democratic. Poor turnout does hamper Democrats somewhat, but I suspect that there are a number of conservatives registered as independent because they don't see Republicans as being conservative enough for them but still vote Republican anyway. There have been some trends in a couple of Bakersfield's council wards and Trump carried Bakersfield only 50-44 down from 55-43. Democrats usually carry 5 out of 10 incorporated cities (some are more town sized though) in the county.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Want to know how deep a hole the California Republican Party is in?  Check their voter registration numbers county-by-county:

How isolated are California Republicans? Let’s go to the map

The party’s geographic woes don’t mean it’s impossible for Republicans to win in Democratic-leaning cities and counties. Republican Kevin Faulconer has been elected twice as mayor of San Diego, and last month, the GOP’s John Lee’s won a seat on the Los Angeles City Council, despite the Democrats’ 54% to 12% lead in the city.

Fairly easy to do when all local candidates run as 'nonpartisan'. Wouldn't be surprised if more GOP State Senate/Assembly candidates start running as 'nonpartisan/independent' ala Steve Poizner

Except even poizner, with his history of goodwill, crossparty endorsements, benefited from downballot dropoff, vote and power-base in normally deep-blue Silicon Valley, was unable to get things to work out. Too many loyal minorities these days, and I'm saying that as a Poizner voter. If more GOP'ers try that route, then the well gets even more tainted.

Of course I'm aware of that. But even with the loss, Poizner out-performed GOP candidates in the other statewide races by 9-12%.

Again, at the district-level and for local "nonpartisan" GOP candidates wanting to move up to Sacramento, it could be an effective strategy throughout the next decade.


And speaking of the next decade & the above-post about Kern County, if stories like this are indications of strong millennial uprooting in Bakersfield, I could see Bakersfield becoming a purple/lean-blue city sometime in the 2020's. Not as positive about Kern County as a whole, as GOP strength (At least in 2016) lies in the unincorporated area. But certainly something to watch in the CA GOP's most populated city.

[Frodo]

An excellent reason as to why the California GOP is going nowhere anytime soon -or could force them to reinvent themselves as their old base is either dying off or moving to other states (mainly Texas):

Study finds Republicans are more likely to consider leaving California