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  AR-Mason Dixon (March): Hutchinson +39
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Author Topic: AR-Mason Dixon (March): Hutchinson +39  (Read 1566 times)
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« on: May 28, 2018, 02:01:03 pm »

63% Asa Hutchinson (R, inc.)
24% Jared Henderson (D)

Hutchinson approval: 65/27 (+38)

http://www.kait8.com/story/37947466/new-poll-shows-hutchinson-in-lead-for-governor

It’s from March, but I don’t think it was posted here.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2018, 02:09:42 pm »

Safe R.
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2018, 05:37:37 pm »

Even if 2018 ended up being as bad for Republicans as 1930, Hutchinson would still win by double digits. Titanium R.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2018, 05:37:59 pm »

Tossup/Tilt D
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2018, 05:42:09 pm »


lol
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Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2018, 06:38:18 pm »


Is this Tom Garrett's account?
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2018, 06:45:34 pm »

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kongress
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2018, 07:11:08 pm »


I'm inclined to go further. In the last blue wave, A-Hutch was among the many Republicans who drowned in it, getting stomped by some 15 points. Due to the national environment this year, I have a feeling this race is Safe D.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2018, 07:42:06 pm »

HUTCHISON UNDER 65
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2018, 07:59:44 pm »

Hutchison won't win by this much, but he'll prevail by a pretty big margin – likely somewhere between 15-20 points.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2018, 08:50:32 pm »

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Predictor
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2018, 10:37:12 pm »

Definitely Safe D, once you remove the bias and adjust for the national climate right now. Obviously.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2018, 10:50:20 pm »


Definitely Safe D, once you remove the bias and adjust for the national climate right now. Obviously.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2018, 12:28:02 am »

Hutchison won't win by this much, but he'll prevail by a pretty big margin – likely somewhere between 15-20 points.

Generally agree, but 20-25 seems more likely to me.
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2018, 06:36:16 am »

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2018, 09:03:45 am »

Hutchison won't win by this much, but he'll prevail by a pretty big margin – likely somewhere between 15-20 points.

I don’t get why so many people think Hutchinson can’t crack 60%. Care to explain your reasoning?
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2018, 11:21:41 am »

The Democrats will put all their money and man power in the 2nd District.  There will be no “walk around money” for the Delta or Pine Bluff.  The Democrats are not contesting 7 of 15 State Senate seats and 44 of 100 State House Seats.The Republicans are not contesting 4 Senate seats or 17 House seats. There is not a great incentive for many weak Democrats or Blacks to vote in many area of the State. 

Hardly anyone dislikes Hutchinson.  Most of the Democrat candidates for State office and Congress are relatively unknown.

Hutchinson could approach 70%.
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2018, 11:22:30 am »

The Democrats will put all their money and man power in the 2nd District.  There will be no “walk around money” for the Delta or Pine Bluff.  The Democrats are not contesting 7 of 15 State Senate seats and 44 of 100 State House Seats.The Republicans are not contesting 4 Senate seats or 17 House seats. There is not a great incentive for many weak Democrats or Blacks to vote in many area of the State. 

Hardly anyone dislikes Hutchinson.  Most of the Democrat candidates for State office and Congress are relatively unknown.

Hutchinson could approach 70%.
LOL No
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2018, 11:53:19 am »

The Democrats will put all their money and man power in the 2nd District.  There will be no “walk around money” for the Delta or Pine Bluff.  The Democrats are not contesting 7 of 15 State Senate seats and 44 of 100 State House Seats.The Republicans are not contesting 4 Senate seats or 17 House seats. There is not a great incentive for many weak Democrats or Blacks to vote in many area of the State. 

Hardly anyone dislikes Hutchinson.  Most of the Democrat candidates for State office and Congress are relatively unknown.

Hutchinson could  approach 70%.
LOL No

I live in a Delta county with a population of 49,000 that is about 53% Black. There was contest between white STate Senator and the black lady mayor of a small city.  Less than 2,000 voted in the Democrat primary.  The white Democrat was overwhelmingly renominated.  About 30 to 50% of his supporters in the primary will support Hutchinson in November.

I just do not see a large black vote in this area in November. The lower that vote, the closer Hutchinson can come to 70%.  It is good to set tough goals.

I did not say pass 70%.  I said approach.
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