CA Gov, Berkeley IGS: Newsom 33%, Cox 20%, Villariagosa 13%, Allen 12%,
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  CA Gov, Berkeley IGS: Newsom 33%, Cox 20%, Villariagosa 13%, Allen 12%,
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Author Topic: CA Gov, Berkeley IGS: Newsom 33%, Cox 20%, Villariagosa 13%, Allen 12%,  (Read 864 times)
Coastal Elitist
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« on: May 31, 2018, 09:55:56 AM »

The final Berkeley poll shows Gavin Newsom and John Cox advancing to the runoff. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1nn5d54r

Among voters  who report  having already  cast their  ballots, 38% say they  voted for  Newsom  and  23% voted for  Cox.   Allen  is  a  distant  third with 14% and none of the other candidates receive double-digit support among these voters

Newsom 33%
Cox 20%
Villariagosa 13%
Allen 12%
Chiang 7%
Eastin 4%
Others 4%
Undecided 7%
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2018, 10:07:15 AM »

If Villariagosa ends up in 4th after many on this forum declared him to be a lock for second at some point in the race, I'm going to laugh so hard. #PeakAtlas
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2018, 10:16:31 AM »

The minority vote still has a large portion that's undecided. 20% of Latinos and 20% of all others (I imagine African Americans and Asians) have yet to make up their minds. That's a substantial number.
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2018, 10:27:56 AM »

I'm curious, if Cox makes it to the runoff, do you think he could get to 40% of the vote in the general?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2018, 10:33:13 AM »

I'm curious, if Cox makes it to the runoff, do you think he could get to 40% of the vote in the general?

Yes
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2018, 10:35:53 AM »

I'm curious, if Cox makes it to the runoff, do you think he could get to 40% of the vote in the general?
No, he'll get 50% because of #redwave (or #bluewave by Atlas colors).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2018, 10:39:00 AM »

I'm curious, if Cox makes it to the runoff, do you think he could get to 40% of the vote in the general?

Yes

Because of muh gas tax and muh sanctuary cities Roll Eyes
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2018, 12:13:30 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2018, 12:41:04 PM by Fubart Solman »

Might have to update my predictions this weekend.

I'll have to look at it more in depth this evening, but I like that they now have "other NorCal" and "other SoCal" split up. I'll need to find a map/description of their exact definitions though.

Edit: looks like they asked about all the candidates.

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Edit 2: didn't realize this wasn't another PPIC poll haha. Maybe this poll always split other bits of NorCal and SoCal
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Canis
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« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2018, 12:55:18 PM »

The minority vote still has a large portion that's undecided. 20% of Latinos and 20% of all others (I imagine African Americans and Asians) have yet to make up their minds. That's a substantial number.
Yeah don't count Villa out just yet
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2018, 01:25:09 PM »

While Cox has received the endorsement of national leaders, there is simmering discontent among Allen supporters. We'll see what happens.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2018, 02:58:27 PM »

I am not eligible to vote in primary, due to residency,  but if I went with one,  it would be Villarigosa
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2018, 05:59:08 PM »

I'm curious, if Cox makes it to the runoff, do you think he could get to 40% of the vote in the general?

no. Cox is a perennial candidate with a lot of money that the GOP is mistaking for a good candidate. At least Allen actually has some kind of experience. Kashkari got 40% of the vote and that's while he was campaigning hard and being generally inoffensive and very very moderate in a GOP banner year. Cox would be lucky to get 36-37% of the vote.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2018, 09:13:55 PM »

I'm curious, if Cox makes it to the runoff, do you think he could get to 40% of the vote in the general?

no. Cox is a perennial candidate with a lot of money that the GOP is mistaking for a good candidate. At least Allen actually has some kind of experience. Kashkari got 40% of the vote and that's while he was campaigning hard and being generally inoffensive and very very moderate in a GOP banner year. Cox would be lucky to get 36-37% of the vote.
Kashkari did not campaign heavily and hardly anyone knew there was an election. Turnout was like 30%.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #13 on: May 31, 2018, 09:16:50 PM »

I'm curious, if Cox makes it to the runoff, do you think he could get to 40% of the vote in the general?

no. Cox is a perennial candidate with a lot of money that the GOP is mistaking for a good candidate. At least Allen actually has some kind of experience. Kashkari got 40% of the vote and that's while he was campaigning hard and being generally inoffensive and very very moderate in a GOP banner year. Cox would be lucky to get 36-37% of the vote.
Kashkari did not campaign heavily and hardly anyone knew there was an election. Turnout was like 30%.

California is also bluer than it was four years ago, and the turnout advantage won’t be R-favoured. I would be surprised if he gets 40%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: May 31, 2018, 09:31:55 PM »

i mean then again Gavin Newsom sucks so maybe idk
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2018, 12:57:14 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2018, 01:00:53 PM by Interlocutor »

I'm curious, if Cox makes it to the runoff, do you think he could get to 40% of the vote in the general?

no. Cox is a perennial candidate with a lot of money that the GOP is mistaking for a good candidate. At least Allen actually has some kind of experience. Kashkari got 40% of the vote and that's while he was campaigning hard and being generally inoffensive and very very moderate in a GOP banner year. Cox would be lucky to get 36-37% of the vote.
Kashkari did not campaign heavily and hardly anyone knew there was an election. Turnout was like 30%.

Besides an ABC debate, Brown campaigned even less. I think he spent more campaign money on his ballot initiatives than his re-election
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