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July 18, 2019, 12:15:23 am
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX-PPP (D): Cruz +3
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Author Topic: TX-PPP (D): Cruz +3  (Read 2693 times)
Cory Booker
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« Reply #25 on: September 20, 2018, 10:16:06 pm »

That's why I like about Beto and this race, Beto has come out of his shell and has been attacking Cruz
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #26 on: September 20, 2018, 10:58:28 pm »

Cruz is still favored, but O'Rourke has made this a closer race than I ever expected.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #27 on: September 21, 2018, 12:28:49 am »

The clear difference between this and Quinnepac isnít Beto; itís Cruz.  Beto is stuck at 45% in both, which is believable.  Cruzís numbers are the ones that fluctuate.  When a high-quality poll shows Beto breaking past the 45% barrier, then we know we have a toss-up race.  Until then, lean R seems right.
Spot on.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #28 on: September 21, 2018, 02:18:24 am »

The clear difference between this and Quinnepac isnít Beto; itís Cruz.  Beto is stuck at 45% in both, which is believable.  Cruzís numbers are the ones that fluctuate.  When a high-quality poll shows Beto breaking past the 45% barrier, then we know we have a toss-up race.  Until then, lean R seems right.

In the end, it's coming down to turnout. Beto has a chance of turnout is high enough. Cruz, at this point, is still favored though.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #29 on: September 21, 2018, 02:48:43 am »

Beto is closing in on the upset
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #30 on: September 21, 2018, 08:07:56 am »

Aren't more highly educated voters also more likely to vote, though?  So perhaps it balances out to some extent.

Not weighting by education is one of the reasons why polls and exit polls in 2016 were found after the fact to have undercounted WWC voters.

Yes, but this year is very likely to be a different electorate.  I think it's reasonable to assume that in 2016 lower educated voters were more motivated (relative to previous elections) than higher educated voters were, but in 2018 the reverse is probably true.

This is a reasonable expectation and I share it, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea not to poll education at all.

I would agree with that.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #31 on: September 21, 2018, 05:17:40 pm »

This is the Dems version of CA-SEN in 2010.

Yeah, I think you are right about that.

I think that'll end up being Tennessee.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #32 on: September 21, 2018, 05:22:57 pm »

This is the Dems version of CA-SEN in 2010.

Yeah, I think you are right about that.

I think that'll end up being Tennessee.

It doesn't have to be either/or.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #33 on: September 21, 2018, 05:26:42 pm »

This is the Dems version of CA-SEN in 2010.

Yeah, I think you are right about that.

I think that'll end up being Tennessee.

It doesn't have to be either/or.

The thing that gives me pause about Texas is that while I think Cruz will likely win, I don't think it will end up as a blowout like California was.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #34 on: September 21, 2018, 05:29:29 pm »

Cruz isn't likely to win, Cook moved this to tossup
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #35 on: September 21, 2018, 05:41:55 pm »

This has been a Toss-Up for a few weeks now on my map. Honestly the more people underestimate Beto the higher his chances get.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #36 on: September 21, 2018, 05:46:37 pm »

Icespear has said Gillum and Beto aren't winning. Dems have the momentum now with Kavanaugh allegations, we can make wave happen. Early voting will bank the votes in early.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #37 on: December 12, 2018, 06:55:59 pm »

Almost spot on. Cruz won by 2.56%
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #38 on: December 12, 2018, 10:27:22 pm »

This is the Dems version of CA-SEN in 2010.

Yeah, I think you are right about that.

I think that'll end up being Tennessee.

He shoots, he scores!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #39 on: December 14, 2018, 08:05:23 pm »

This should squash any talk of PPP being a ridiculous D pollster. They're generally close to the mark.
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1J
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« Reply #40 on: December 15, 2018, 09:40:18 am »

This should squash any talk of PPP being a ridiculous D pollster. They're generally close to the mark.

That's what I've been trying to tell some of the non-believers on here. Roll Eyes
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