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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11
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Author Topic: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +11  (Read 4114 times)
#gravelgang #lessiglad
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« Reply #50 on: May 30, 2018, 03:56:19 pm »

This is about what can be expected of Texas. At the end of the day, the votes are just not really there for a Democrat to win. The most that can be realistically hoped for O'Rourke is that maybe he will come somewhat close and build the TX Democratic party for the future. If O'Rourke can come within 5-8 points or so, he can show that maybe in a decade or two Democrats may start having a more realistic chance of winning statewide races in Texas.

This also means that Democratic hopes at winning the Senate basically require pulling an inside straight. Certainly quite possible given the strength of some of the Red State Dem incumbents and likely pickups in AZ and NV, but a tall order.

Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.

WV and TX are both incredibly overhyped races, especially by the so-called “experts”. I think Manchin is actually the safest Romney state Democrat at this point, even safer than you-know-who.

It is pretty natural that both WV and TX get overhyped.

TX naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:

1) It is a large and populous state. Similar to California or New York, it gets a disproportionated amount of the national attention no matter whether their races are really more competitive than other races.

2) It plays into the narrative about demographic change and hype about that.


WV naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:

1) It is close to Washington DC, and part of West Virginia is in the Washington DC media market. That means that national news reporters in DC are more likely to see occasional TV ads (or at least radio) targeted at WV voters. A handful of their co-workers also commute in to DC from the WV panhandle, which is more and more part of the DC exurbs. So as far as red states go, WV is one of the easier places for the national press to relate to. It is more accessible than Nebraska.

2) It plays into the 'racist WV hick' stereotype.

Good, comprehensive, balanced post.
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#gravelgang #lessiglad
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« Reply #51 on: May 30, 2018, 04:02:32 pm »

Re: the poll itself, it isn't exactly a surprising result. The range of reasonable expectations was and always has been a nail-biter O'Rourke win to a comfortable low-to-mid-double digit Cruz win, with a sizeable majority of outcomes falling into the Cruz win category.

In other words, his average polling lead of roughly 7% is large enough that he's considered the probable winner or prohibitive favorite, but narrow enough that a slightly larger than average polling error for Senate races is all that stands between Ted Cruz and the unemployment office. Well, more plausibly, DLA Piper, but whatever.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #52 on: May 30, 2018, 04:49:29 pm »

Robert Francis O'Rourke is probably another Wendy Davis; a liberal who is the darling of monied interests and national media but has little natural appeal in Texas. Like Davis he'll start out somewhat close and raise a ton of money from NY and California but fall behind the more the race goes on
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« Reply #53 on: May 30, 2018, 04:55:00 pm »

Robert Francis O'Rourke is probably another Wendy Davis; a liberal who is the darling of monied interests and national media but has little natural appeal in Texas. Like Davis he'll start out somewhat close and raise a ton of money from NY and California but fall behind the more the race goes on
You're funny
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Shameless Bernie Hack
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« Reply #54 on: May 30, 2018, 04:55:27 pm »

B-b-but muh Texas is a tossup! Only far-right crazies would vote for Cruz! Junk poll!

I mean the second sentence is just empirically correct.
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« Reply #55 on: May 30, 2018, 04:58:02 pm »

B-b-but muh Texas is a tossup! Only far-right crazies would vote for Cruz! Junk poll!

I mean the second sentence is just empirically correct.
I bet this guy dismisses polls showing Bredesen/McCaskill ahead by going "muh Missouri/Tennessee too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #56 on: May 30, 2018, 04:59:42 pm »

Cruz is Latino in a WWC Latino state, so it's no problem for him on winning.
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YH Stands with Sanchez!
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« Reply #57 on: May 30, 2018, 05:06:30 pm »

B-b-but muh Texas is a tossup! Only far-right crazies would vote for Cruz! Junk poll!

I mean the second sentence is just empirically correct.
I bet this guy dismisses polls showing Bredesen/McCaskill ahead by going "muh Missouri/Tennessee too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"

No. Missouri is tilt D and Tennessee is a tossup as of now.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #58 on: May 30, 2018, 05:22:04 pm »

As expected.
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« Reply #59 on: May 30, 2018, 05:28:47 pm »

These Texas Q polls have really made the blue avatars here cream themselves.
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« Reply #60 on: May 30, 2018, 05:31:17 pm »

These Texas Q polls have really made the blue avatars here cream themselves.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #61 on: May 30, 2018, 05:33:13 pm »

Texas is actually going blue if you go by the original NBC Colors
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Former President Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #62 on: May 30, 2018, 05:49:52 pm »

Expecting I to be a good bit closer than this. As others have pointed out, the cross tabs are a good bit in favor of Cruz than how it likely is. Still lean R.
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« Reply #63 on: May 30, 2018, 07:05:17 pm »

This race is likely R and always has been likely R.
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« Reply #64 on: May 30, 2018, 07:13:49 pm »

As expected.
I knew Wulfric would jackoff to this from a long distance away.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #65 on: May 30, 2018, 07:21:11 pm »

Best part of the poll: the Atlas leftist denial and whataboutism.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #66 on: May 30, 2018, 07:22:20 pm »

Best part of the poll: the Atlas leftist denial and whataboutism.

The vast majority of the red avatars are saying this is expected, but keep being a partisan hack. Smiley
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« Reply #67 on: May 30, 2018, 07:36:03 pm »

Best part of the poll: the Atlas leftist denial and whataboutism.
Worst: Blue avatar masturbation fantasy.
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« Reply #68 on: May 30, 2018, 08:20:04 pm »

I think O'Rourke could take an advantage against Cruz by attacking him on NAFTA and free trade in general since Cruz supports the construction of Trump's wall while pushing it could antagonize Texas' major trading partner which is Mexico, casting a pall over the trade talks, thus risking to restrict trade between Texas and Mexico and could cost jobs in Texas. And 1 out of 4 jobs in Texas depend on trade with Mexico.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2017/11/23/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-agree-dire-outcome-nafta-dies-senator-likes-trumps-border-wall

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/trade/2018/05/30/texas-lawmakers-grow-anxious-naftas-fate-negotiations-drag
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« Reply #69 on: May 30, 2018, 10:33:03 pm »

I think O'Rourke could take an advantage against Cruz by attacking him on NAFTA and free trade in general since Cruz supports the construction of Trump's wall while pushing it could antagonize Texas' major trading partner which is Mexico, casting a pall over the trade talks, thus risking to restrict trade between Texas and Mexico and could cost jobs in Texas. And 1 out of 4 jobs in Texas depend on trade with Mexico.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2017/11/23/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-agree-dire-outcome-nafta-dies-senator-likes-trumps-border-wall

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/trade/2018/05/30/texas-lawmakers-grow-anxious-naftas-fate-negotiations-drag

Good point, I hadn’t thought of thay
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Former President Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #70 on: May 31, 2018, 07:38:44 am »

I think O'Rourke could take an advantage against Cruz by attacking him on NAFTA and free trade in general since Cruz supports the construction of Trump's wall while pushing it could antagonize Texas' major trading partner which is Mexico, casting a pall over the trade talks, thus risking to restrict trade between Texas and Mexico and could cost jobs in Texas. And 1 out of 4 jobs in Texas depend on trade with Mexico.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2017/11/23/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-agree-dire-outcome-nafta-dies-senator-likes-trumps-border-wall

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/trade/2018/05/30/texas-lawmakers-grow-anxious-naftas-fate-negotiations-drag

Good point, I hadn’t thought of thay
someone contact O'Rourke's campaign team right now
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #71 on: May 31, 2018, 07:43:18 am »

I don't think NAFTA is really a big issue in Texas lol, literally nobody talks about it here....
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #72 on: May 31, 2018, 08:18:17 am »

The Beto camp was touting 3 point poll.
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UWS
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« Reply #73 on: May 31, 2018, 08:54:27 am »

I don't think NAFTA is really a big issue in Texas lol, literally nobody talks about it here....

Well, they should because their pockets depend on it.

And by the way, on jobs, again, O'Rourke could use the article below against Cruz in order to destroy him when talking economy by attacking him on his role in the lawsuit defending a Chinese company that stole an American invention and blueprints.

http://www.politifact.com/new-hampshire/statements/2016/feb/07/marco-rubio/rubio-attacks-cruz-role-lawsuit-defending-chinese-/
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #74 on: May 31, 2018, 09:09:56 am »

Trump is a free trader and having summits with Korea who is friends with China. Mexico and China is where we get our free trade from. That's why we are s center right country.
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