This is about what can be expected of Texas. At the end of the day, the votes are just not really there for a Democrat to win. The most that can be realistically hoped for O'Rourke is that maybe he will come somewhat close and build the TX Democratic party for the future. If O'Rourke can come within 5-8 points or so, he can show that maybe in a decade or two Democrats may start having a more realistic chance of winning statewide races in Texas.
This also means that Democratic hopes at winning the Senate basically require pulling an inside straight. Certainly quite possible given the strength of some of the Red State Dem incumbents and likely pickups in AZ and NV, but a tall order.
Interesting how Cruz +11 equals Safe Republican, but Manchin +12 is a fake poll and it's a tossup race.
WV and TX are both incredibly overhyped races, especially by the so-called “experts”. I think Manchin is actually the safest Romney state Democrat at this point, even safer than you-know-who.
It is pretty natural that both WV and TX get overhyped.
TX naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:
1) It is a large and populous state. Similar to California or New York, it gets a disproportionated amount of the national attention no matter whether their races are really more competitive than other races.
2) It plays into the narrative about demographic change and hype about that.
WV naturally gets overhyped for 2 reasons:
1) It is close to Washington DC, and part of West Virginia is in the Washington DC media market. That means that national news reporters in DC are more likely to see occasional TV ads (or at least radio) targeted at WV voters. A handful of their co-workers also commute in to DC from the WV panhandle, which is more and more part of the DC exurbs. So as far as red states go, WV is one of the easier places for the national press to relate to. It is more accessible than Nebraska.
2) It plays into the 'racist WV hick' stereotype.
Good, comprehensive, balanced post.
