CA Gov, Berkeley IGS: Newsom 33%, Cox 20%, Villariagosa 13%, Allen 12%,

[Coastal Elitist]

The final Berkeley poll shows Gavin Newsom and John Cox advancing to the runoff. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1nn5d54r

Among voters  who report  having already  cast their  ballots, 38% say they  voted for  Newsom  and  23% voted for  Cox.   Allen  is  a  distant  third with 14% and none of the other candidates receive double-digit support among these voters

Newsom 33%
Cox 20%
Villariagosa 13%
Allen 12%
Chiang 7%
Eastin 4%
Others 4%
Undecided 7%

[Coastal Elitist]

I'm curious, if Cox makes it to the runoff, do you think he could get to 40% of the vote in the general?

no. Cox is a perennial candidate with a lot of money that the GOP is mistaking for a good candidate. At least Allen actually has some kind of experience. Kashkari got 40% of the vote and that's while he was campaigning hard and being generally inoffensive and very very moderate in a GOP banner year. Cox would be lucky to get 36-37% of the vote.

Kashkari did not campaign heavily and hardly anyone knew there was an election. Turnout was like 30%.