CA Gov, Berkeley IGS: Newsom 33%, Cox 20%, Villariagosa 13%, Allen 12%,

[ON Progressive]

I'm curious, if Cox makes it to the runoff, do you think he could get to 40% of the vote in the general?

no. Cox is a perennial candidate with a lot of money that the GOP is mistaking for a good candidate. At least Allen actually has some kind of experience. Kashkari got 40% of the vote and that's while he was campaigning hard and being generally inoffensive and very very moderate in a GOP banner year. Cox would be lucky to get 36-37% of the vote.

Kashkari did not campaign heavily and hardly anyone knew there was an election. Turnout was like 30%.

California is also bluer than it was four years ago, and the turnout advantage won’t be R-favoured. I would be surprised if he gets 40%