Alberta Election 2019
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #25 on: July 18, 2018, 04:23:53 PM »

Fildebrandt is starting his own party 🤣
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mileslunn
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« Reply #26 on: July 18, 2018, 06:19:13 PM »

Fildebrandt is starting his own party 🤣

Sounds like the Libertarian one.  Here some policy proposals we just might see from him.

1.  Eliminate the provincial income tax and replace with a 10% PST.
2.  Entrench property rights in the Alberta constitution
3.  Eliminate as many environmental laws as possible.
4.  Cut off funding to all universities and colleges that don't fully allow free speech, that includes letting alt right speakers speak on campus
5.  Bring in school vouchers and allow home schooling and private schools to be fully tax deductible against PST and property taxes.
6.  End all restrictions on private health care and allow full market competition
7.  Withdraw from CPP and instead let the private sector take over here.
8.  Make all purchases of private health insurance fully tax deductible
9.  Bring in right to work laws.
10.  Make the right to keep and bear arms entrenched in law and opposed all restrictions on law abiding people owning firearms.

These would be a wet dream for people who feel the UCP is not libertarian enough, but somehow doubt they would be popular even in Alberta.

Joking aside, I suspect his party will go the same way the Trilium Party did in the last Ontario election and BC Conservative party in the last BC election, i.e nowhere.
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Njall
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« Reply #27 on: July 18, 2018, 09:47:35 PM »

Fildebrandt is starting his own party 🤣

For context, this appears to be a bit of a benevolent takeover of an existing party. Although it recently changed its name to the Freedom Conservative Party (when they did this, I predicted they were trying to get Fildebrandt to cross over), the party has existed in 1999 under a variety of names and usually with a separatist orientation. Over time, the party has been known as the Alberta First Party, the Separation Party, the Alberta First Party (again), the Western Freedom Party, and finally the Freedom Conservative Party.
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adma
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« Reply #28 on: July 18, 2018, 09:51:16 PM »

Joking aside, I suspect his party will go the same way the Trilium Party did in the last Ontario election and BC Conservative party in the last BC election, i.e nowhere.

Or, whatever Jim Pankiw has attempted in Saskatchewan.
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Njall
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« Reply #29 on: July 18, 2018, 10:17:47 PM »

Looks like Fildebrandt's party will still have an Alberta nationalist edge. According to him:

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Also, Fildebrandt says that they will only run candidates in ridings where the NDP "doesn't have a chance of winning." How they'll determine this isn't exactly clear, but I imagine it means that they'll run about 35-50 candidates, mostly outside of the major cities except for some suburban Calgary ridings with UCP incumbents and where the 2015 PC+WRP vote was strong.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #30 on: July 18, 2018, 11:12:51 PM »

So the Ottawa boy supports Alberta separatism now eh.
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adma
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« Reply #31 on: July 19, 2018, 09:27:12 PM »

With a name like "Freedom Conservative", I expect them to corner the Proud Boys demo.
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136or142
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« Reply #32 on: July 19, 2018, 09:37:18 PM »

With a name like "Freedom Conservative", I expect them to corner the Proud Boys demo.

The 'Pros' and the "New Boys (or Nu Boys)" were mentioned in an episode of WKRP in Cincinnati.  In my opinion, this is one of the best scenes ever in a television show:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhbqIJZ8wCM
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cp
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« Reply #33 on: July 20, 2018, 03:22:40 PM »

With a name like "Freedom Conservative", I expect them to corner the Proud Boys demo.

They're also a lock with incels, red pillers, racial realists, Rebel Media doners, Promise Keepers, and TERFs.

If they can get the support of the Stonecutters (and/or No Homers) they might be a real threat.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #34 on: July 23, 2018, 06:28:32 PM »

How many here think the NDP still could win and if so how would they do it both in terms of votes and geography.  I don't think they can win the popular vote, but I still could see them winning a narrow majority as their vote is more efficient than the UCP (UCP will likely get over 70% and in some cases 80% in much of rural Alberta), while low 60s is the highest I can see the NDP getting (probably in Notley's own riding) and in fact outside central Edmonton I don't see them getting over 50% in many ridings.

How it would happen is a combination of bozo remarks like in 2012 with the Wildrose party as well as Kenney's austerity plans scare off a lot of middle of the road voters, so the UCP only gets around 43-45%, which is very plausible.  Youth turnout is quite high and NDP wins big there while the Alberta Party gets around 15% of the popular vote and most of that comes at the expense of the UCP, not NDP with mostly former PC supporters who find the UCP too right wing going to the Alberta Party.  They only win one of two seats, but create the splits for the NDP.  Progressives unite behind the NDP, so they get close to 40% (note last federal election, 40% voted for centre-left parties, so if they all unite behind the NDP, they get around 40%).  Seatwise, the NDP not only sweeps Edmonton, but wins almost all seats in the Capital Region.  In Calgary, Alberta Party gets around 20% allowing the NDP to sweep all the inner ridings with the UCP only winning along the periphery thus it is closer but NDP still wins just over half the seats in Calgary.  In the rest of Alberta, NDP wins smaller centres like Lethbridge and Red Deer. 

Admittedly this is a long shot, but if the stars line up the NDP does have a path to majority albeit a very narrow one.  Nonetheless Trump in the US had a similarly narrow path to victory so as long as the path remains open they still can win.  That being said I think there is about an 80% chance UCP wins a majority next May and Jason Kenney becomes the next premier, but I think there is a 20% chance of either another NDP majority or a hung parliament.  Off course UCP could do better than expected and sweep Calgary, rest of Alberta and pick up much of suburban Edmonton winning around 65 seats and high 50s in the popular vote while NDP falls to mid 20s.  That would be the opposite extreme which is unlikely but possible.
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Njall
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« Reply #35 on: July 24, 2018, 01:23:23 AM »

The NDP chances of winning aren't yet at 0%, but I don't expect them to win the next election. The NDP don't necessarily have a greater vote efficiency than the UCP: I expect them to run up the margins in a number of Edmonton seats. If Notley could get over 60% in Edmonton-Strathcona when the party was getting 11% province-wide, I'd be surprised if she fell below 70% this time around. While I don't think that they'll win, I would expect the NDP to get at least 30% of the vote and 25-30 seats. But I digress...

It is fun to try and imagine what another NDP government would look like geographically. Right now, this would be my guess for the 44 seats (in no particular order) that they need to win another majority:

1-20. Every seat in Edmonton proper
21. Calgary-Buffalo
22. Calgary-Cross
23. Calgary-Currie
24. Calgary-East
25. Calgary-Klein
26. Calgary-McCall
27. Calgary-Mountain View
28. Calgary-Varsity
29. Lethbridge-East
30. Lethbridge-West
31. Red Deer-North
32. Red Deer-South
33. St. Albert
34. Morinville-St. Albert
35. Sherwood Park
36. Strathcona-Sherwood Park
37. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
38. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
39. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland
40. Leduc-Beaumont
41. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin
42. Banff-Kananaskis
43. Lesser Slave Lake
44. Peace River

Mathematically based on last election's results, for this to happen the NDP would somehow need to beat the UCP by a couple percent in the popular vote. But we all know that this sort of math rarely turns out to be accurate.

Also, just for fun: in the above scenario, the UCP seat with the narrowest margin of victory over the NDP would either be Calgary-Bow, Grande Prairie, or West Yellowhead (an outside shot). We would also have the highest chance of seeing two MLAs elected who are neither NDP or UCP. One would be Greg Clark in Calgary-Elbow for the ABP. The other would either be a second ABP MLA (probably Karen McPherson in Calgary-Beddington) or Derek Fildebrandt under the FCP banner in Chestermere-Strathmore.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #36 on: July 31, 2018, 05:28:43 PM »

Mainstreet out with another poll and looks like UCP has rebounded although regional numbers interesting.  UCP is taken a statiscally significant lead in Edmonton which is normally an NDP stronghold, but in Calgary UCP only 15 points ahead so NDP not totally out of it there.  Note these are the CMAs not city proper so UCP numbers are high in Edmonton as it includes surrounding areas in the Capital region which went mostly NDP, but far more vulnerable than the city proper.  On the other hand that is good news for the NDP in Calgary as the UCP is likely running up the margins in the surrounding areas as well as probably the south side of the city, so the NDP could very well be in the lead still in the central part.  Nonetheless UCP leads amongst all ages so a big turnout by millennials won't necessarily save the NDP if the poll numbers are correct.

UCP 52.1%
NDP32.5%
Alberta Party 5.4%
Liberals 4.8%
Greens3.1%
Others 2.1%
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Njall
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« Reply #37 on: August 01, 2018, 12:46:53 PM »

Mainstreet out with another poll and looks like UCP has rebounded although regional numbers interesting.  UCP is taken a statiscally significant lead in Edmonton which is normally an NDP stronghold, but in Calgary UCP only 15 points ahead so NDP not totally out of it there.  Note these are the CMAs not city proper so UCP numbers are high in Edmonton as it includes surrounding areas in the Capital region which went mostly NDP, but far more vulnerable than the city proper.  On the other hand that is good news for the NDP in Calgary as the UCP is likely running up the margins in the surrounding areas as well as probably the south side of the city, so the NDP could very well be in the lead still in the central part.  Nonetheless UCP leads amongst all ages so a big turnout by millennials won't necessarily save the NDP if the poll numbers are correct.

UCP 52.1%
NDP32.5%
Alberta Party 5.4%
Liberals 4.8%
Greens3.1%
Others 2.1%


The results amongst Millennials in particular in that poll are giving me flashbacks to the Calgary Mayoral election.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #38 on: August 01, 2018, 03:08:07 PM »

Mainstreet out with another poll and looks like UCP has rebounded although regional numbers interesting.  UCP is taken a statiscally significant lead in Edmonton which is normally an NDP stronghold, but in Calgary UCP only 15 points ahead so NDP not totally out of it there.  Note these are the CMAs not city proper so UCP numbers are high in Edmonton as it includes surrounding areas in the Capital region which went mostly NDP, but far more vulnerable than the city proper.  On the other hand that is good news for the NDP in Calgary as the UCP is likely running up the margins in the surrounding areas as well as probably the south side of the city, so the NDP could very well be in the lead still in the central part.  Nonetheless UCP leads amongst all ages so a big turnout by millennials won't necessarily save the NDP if the poll numbers are correct.

UCP 52.1%
NDP32.5%
Alberta Party 5.4%
Liberals 4.8%
Greens3.1%
Others 2.1%


The results amongst Millennials in particular in that poll are giving me flashbacks to the Calgary Mayoral election.

Agreed on millennials they mess up a lot, but even if millennials were say to vote NDP by a 20 point margin UCP would still be ahead albeit by a much smaller margin.  To be fair Mainstreet did correctly call the last Ontario election and asides from Calgary municipal election track record is pretty good.  They also overestimated the NDP in 2015 like most pollsters although still correctly predicted the winner.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #39 on: November 13, 2018, 03:24:36 AM »

Two more polls out, one from Abacus and one from Mainstreet.  Both show UCP with a healthy lead although seems UCP lead is more they are successfully uniting the conservative vote and less so about any enthusiasm for Jason Kenney although his approval ratings are okay.  Rachel Notley's are not great, but marginally better than Christy Clark, Brian Gallant, Philippe Couillard, and Stephen Harper, while significantly better than Kathleen Wynne and Greg Selinger so its tough to win with her approval ratings but not impossible.  Her biggest challenge is uniting the progressive vote won't be sufficient; she needs to pull away some traditional conservative voters to win and that will be tough.

Abacus - Online

UCP 48%
NDP 33%
Alberta Party 8%
Liberals 8%

Mainstreet Research - IVR

UCP 54.3%
NDP 29.1%
Alberta Party 5.5%
Liberals 5.2%

If Mainstreet were correct, you would see a UCP landslide, likely over 60 seats and possibly even over 70 seats while NDP would struggle to reach 20 seats.  If Abacus are correct, then solid UCP win, but probably 55-60 seats, while NDP still forms a strong opposition, probably around 25-30 seats.  Alberta Party will likely hold Greg Clark's riding and maybe Stephen Mandel will win, but cannot see them winning anything else.  I suspect the Liberals unless things change will get shut out with Calgary-Mountainview probably flipping to the NDP, maybe UCP if they win a landslide.  Still a little over 7 months to go so a lot can change, but the NDP definitely has a steep hill to climb and the UCP is without question the favourite at this point.
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Njall
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« Reply #40 on: November 13, 2018, 03:42:54 PM »

Of note, the two polls had marked disparities in the proportion of voters who are undecided. Abacus has undecideds at 26% of respondents, while Mainstreet has undecideds around the 9-10% mark.

Leading up to 2012 and 2015, undecided rates of 20-30% were pretty common in Alberta polling, so the Abacus number would represent a return to that norm if true. In both 2012 and 2015, undecided voters appeared to reject more extreme positions (principally those coming from Wildrose), flocking heavily to the PCs in 2012 and splitting between the PCs and NDP in 2015. If the UCP are to lose or underperform in the next election, it will be because undecided voters decide to reject them much as they did to the Wildrose in 2012 and 2015.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #41 on: January 17, 2019, 06:07:23 PM »

NDP plans a throne speech on March 18th so late April would be the earliest they could realistically call an election.  Some thought they might go earlier as they want to go when the students are still in school since they are strongest amongst youngest voters while in the winter before snowbirds return as UCP has big lead amongst them.  My guess is voting day will be May 31st which is the latest date possible.  Notley really needs a pipeline to go through to have much chance so they longer they wait the better the chances get.  Also more time to sprinkle election goodies as well as also more time for the UCP to have bozo eruptions and scare away moderate voters.  Still not sure timing will make a huge difference although UCP seems very anxious for an election.
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Njall
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« Reply #42 on: January 17, 2019, 11:48:31 PM »

My bet is on an election for April 15 or 16. Throne speech on the 18th of March, drop the writ on the 19th, and away we go.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2019, 06:04:13 PM »

Mainstreet has their quarterly mega poll and for Alberta they have the following:

UCP 52.3%
NDP 27.8%
Alberta party7.7%
Liberal 6.1%
Green 3%
FCP 2.4%

So on the surface UCP has a pretty big lead meaning unless they screw up badly they are heavily favoured.  Interesting that 14% are voting for centrist parties so will be interesting does that hold or do many vote strategically either NDP or UCP to stop whom they least want to win.  The one good news NDP has is on personal ratings Notley scores above her party and Kenney below so that would suggest it is more likely the gap will narrow than widen.


Notley: 36.9% Approve 49.3% disapprove
Kenney: 39.7% Approve 33.1% disapprove.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #44 on: January 22, 2019, 06:19:07 PM »

The problem I feel facing the NDP here, just from a little searching, is that their ceiling is just below the natural floor for any united conservative front. This is after all a conservative area, and like Kansas in the US, the Left wins when the Right is hopelessly divided. I wouldn't be surprised that we watch the NDP do everything right, the UCP do everything wrong, and the UCP still easily wins thanks to their floor.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #45 on: January 22, 2019, 06:41:10 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised that we watch the NDP do everything right, the UCP do everything wrong, and the UCP still easily wins thanks to their floor.

This.
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Lachi
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« Reply #46 on: January 22, 2019, 08:32:59 PM »

In terms of seat count, I've got the UCP in the low 50s right now. yes, for a conservative party in AB, that's a small majority, but they'll be holding onto that for a long time if they get it. The only thing that might save Notley is that Jason Kenny leads the UCP.
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Smid
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« Reply #47 on: January 30, 2019, 12:27:02 AM »

I did some work last year to come up with new vote margins following the redistribution, if anyone's interested.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #48 on: January 30, 2019, 04:06:00 PM »

Mainstreet has their quarterly mega poll and for Alberta they have the following:

UCP 52.3%
NDP 27.8%
Alberta party7.7%
Liberal 6.1%
Green 3%
FCP 2.4%

So on the surface UCP has a pretty big lead meaning unless they screw up badly they are heavily favoured.  Interesting that 14% are voting for centrist parties so will be interesting does that hold or do many vote strategically either NDP or UCP to stop whom they least want to win.  The one good news NDP has is on personal ratings Notley scores above her party and Kenney below so that would suggest it is more likely the gap will narrow than widen.


Notley: 36.9% Approve 49.3% disapprove
Kenney: 39.7% Approve 33.1% disapprove.

It will definitely be an interesting election. I feel like this is the most confident a government down by 25% has been going into an election in a long time haha.

I did some work last year to come up with new vote margins following the redistribution, if anyone's interested.

Definitely interested.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #49 on: January 30, 2019, 04:20:41 PM »

Mainstreet has their quarterly mega poll and for Alberta they have the following:

UCP 52.3%
NDP 27.8%
Alberta party7.7%
Liberal 6.1%
Green 3%
FCP 2.4%

So on the surface UCP has a pretty big lead meaning unless they screw up badly they are heavily favoured.  Interesting that 14% are voting for centrist parties so will be interesting does that hold or do many vote strategically either NDP or UCP to stop whom they least want to win.  The one good news NDP has is on personal ratings Notley scores above her party and Kenney below so that would suggest it is more likely the gap will narrow than widen.


Notley: 36.9% Approve 49.3% disapprove
Kenney: 39.7% Approve 33.1% disapprove.

It will definitely be an interesting election. I feel like this is the most confident a government down by 25% has been going into an election in a long time haha.

I did some work last year to come up with new vote margins following the redistribution, if anyone's interested.

Definitely interested.


I think their reasons are not unwarranted.  While Notley's approval ratings are not great, they are no worse than Christy Clark or Stephen McNeil's were in 2017 who both won the most seats although Christy Clark got defeated on a confidence vote.  I think the feeling rightly or wrongly is Albertans vote conservative more out of habit than anything else, but usually in the past the PCs were fairly moderate whereas UCP is a lot more ideologically driven and that once their policies come out many will go elsewhere. 

Certainly on policy issues, most polls I've seen suggests the median Alberta voter falls about midway between the NDP and UCP.  Most want a balanced budget, less bureaucracy, reduced wages for upper paid civil servants, middle class tax cut, at the same time most support abolishing the flat tax (which UCP plans to bring back), oppose frontline service cuts, and support raising the minimum wage even if maybe not to $15/hour so Albertans on the issues aren't as right wing as the stereotypes paint them.  So I agree an NDP win is unlikely, but when you look below the surface, I don't think it is impossible.  Wynne at this point was only 10 points behind, but high dissatisfaction with her made me think she faced more difficult odds than Notley does and once the campaign got under way her numbers fell.
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