Alberta Election 2019

[brucejoel99]

I wouldn't be surprised that we watch the NDP do everything right, the UCP do everything wrong, and the UCP still easily wins thanks to their floor.

This.

[brucejoel99]

Two new polls from Angus Reid and Pollara

Angus Reid:52-396

Pollara: 45-388

I suspect the NDP are getting into "couldn't quite get over the hump" territory. Maybe they pull it off if Alberta Party vote collapses (very possible if they are AnyoneButKenney) and there's a polling error.

Probably the NDP has to hope for a BC 2013 scenario (except reversed).

At this point, my guess is just Alberta 2019 will be like BC 1975 rather than BC 2013: that is, the NDP (like 1975's BC NDP) will get the same 40+% of the vote that they got when they won in 2015 (like 1972), but they'll lose b/c the united right-wing is consolidated behind the UCP (like 1975's Social Credit).

[brucejoel99]

Alright y'all, it's officially April 16th, Election Day, in Alberta so you know what that means: it's final prediction time! Please feel free to post your predictions of how you think the election will have played out by this time tomorrow.

As for me, I'm gonna say screw it, go w/ my heart (likely stupidly), & roll the dice to say:
NDP 43 (41.3%)
UCP 43 (39.4%)
AP 1 - Clark (12%)
LIB 0 (3.2%)
Freedom 0 (2.2%)

NDP minority government (possibly w/ Greg Clark providing confidence & supply), just b/c it'd be amazing to hopefully see the NDP snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

[brucejoel99]

Rip Notley. She was the best Alberta was ever going to realistically elect. Hopefully she sticks around & makes a play in 2023.

[brucejoel99]

If anybody's curious as to what happens next, Notley will still be Premier tomorrow. She remains in office until she resigns *or* is defeated in a confidence vote in the legislature. But with such a strong UCP majority, she'd be sure to lose a confidence vote, so to save the humiliation, she'll obviously skip that part.

The Lt. Gov. of Alberta (Lois Mitchell) will get a call or a visit from Notley sometime this week (tomorrow, perhaps). There, Notley will inform the LG that she wishes to resign, along with the rest of the Executive Council. If Notley wants to be extra-proper about it, she'll also advise the LG that Jason Kenney would make a suitable replacement. Regardless, the LG will respond by summoning Kenney, where she'll ask him to form a government for Alberta. Upon accepting, Kenney *officially* becomes Premier-designate, with Notley remaining a caretaker-Premier during the transition period (probably a couple weeks).

Fast forward to the last day of transition: Notley will visit the LG that morning & officially take her leave from her role as Premier. Then the swearing-in ceremony will happen with the LG presiding, the Secretary to Cabinet will swear in Kenney as Premier. Once sworn in, Kenney will present the LG with a letter called an instrument of advice, recommending the appointment of the rest of the Executive Council. The LG will accept, & Kenney's cabinet will be sworn in. At that point, the new (UCP) Government will be officially formed & free to exercise the full constitutional authority of the Crown-in-right-of-Alberta. The legislature will then be recalled sometime after that, once Kenney's got a Throne Speech ready.

Oh, & also, Notley officially announced during her concession speech tonight that she's not stepping down as leader, so she will take up the post of the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in the new legislature.

[brucejoel99]

I wonder if US leftists will learn from their Canadian cousins?  Or will they forge ahead to impose carbon taxes?

Ahh yes, we should learn from the party that lives in denial, with no plan for the future & nothing to offer people. The only thing that Jason Kenney & the UCP have offered is a failure to recognize that a changing economy & their climate change denial are a dead-end for the environment, the economy, & the future.

[brucejoel99]

Kenney has asked the Lt. Gov. to swear him in on April 30th. He'll then convene a spring session of the legislature during the third week of May.

[brucejoel99]

Kenney has asked the Lt. Gov. to swear him in on April 30th. He'll then convene a spring session of the legislature during the third week of May.

I wonder who will be in cabinet? Ric McIver, Jason Nixon and Tany Yao spring to mind.

Well, if I were a betting man, I'd say that Ric McIver will be the next Finance Minister.