Interesting Vermont results in 2016 elections
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  Interesting Vermont results in 2016 elections
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Author Topic: Interesting Vermont results in 2016 elections  (Read 1098 times)
BBD
Big Bad Don
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« on: May 31, 2018, 07:35:29 PM »
« edited: May 31, 2018, 07:38:39 PM by Big Bad Don (Insane-New York) »

I'm not sure if this is the right section to post this, but oh well.

I just scrolled through the NYT 2016 Vermont results, comparing the Senate results to the Presidential results, and I found some very strange and interesting results.

A few examples:

In the Isle La Motte township in the northwest, Trump narrowly beat Clinton 47.8%-46.4% (140-136), but Scott Milne decimated Pat Leahy 88.2%-10.6% (1,229-148!!!!!!!!). This is definitely the weirdest one.

In the township of Derby, Trump won 50%-44% (1,004-885), but Leahy won 79%-11.8% (1,073-160).

In the township of Reading, Clinton won 64.7%-34.3% (231-108), but Milne won 73%-25.6% (633-222)

All across the map, you can find areas that have pretty wild crossovers. There are also a ton of townships that have higher turnout for the Senate race than the Presidential race, although none are as crazy as Isle La Motte. Just curious if anyone with local knowledge of Vermont politics has any input.



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Solid4096
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« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2018, 08:14:55 PM »

All of these appear to be errors by quick glances at turnout differences.
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cvparty
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2018, 09:11:14 PM »

I'm not sure if this is the right section to post this, but oh well.

I just scrolled through the NYT 2016 Vermont results, comparing the Senate results to the Presidential results, and I found some very strange and interesting results.

A few examples:

In the Isle La Motte township in the northwest, Trump narrowly beat Clinton 47.8%-46.4% (140-136), but Scott Milne decimated Pat Leahy 88.2%-10.6% (1,229-148!!!!!!!!). This is definitely the weirdest one.

In the township of Derby, Trump won 50%-44% (1,004-885), but Leahy won 79%-11.8% (1,073-160).

In the township of Reading, Clinton won 64.7%-34.3% (231-108), but Milne won 73%-25.6% (633-222)

All across the map, you can find areas that have pretty wild crossovers. There are also a ton of townships that have higher turnout for the Senate race than the Presidential race, although none are as crazy as Isle La Motte. Just curious if anyone with local knowledge of Vermont politics has any input.




isle la motte's population is less than 500 sooo
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« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2018, 01:28:29 PM »

I'm not sure if this is the right section to post this, but oh well.

I just scrolled through the NYT 2016 Vermont results, comparing the Senate results to the Presidential results, and I found some very strange and interesting results.

A few examples:

In the Isle La Motte township in the northwest, Trump narrowly beat Clinton 47.8%-46.4% (140-136), but Scott Milne decimated Pat Leahy 88.2%-10.6% (1,229-148!!!!!!!!). This is definitely the weirdest one.

In the township of Derby, Trump won 50%-44% (1,004-885), but Leahy won 79%-11.8% (1,073-160).

In the township of Reading, Clinton won 64.7%-34.3% (231-108), but Milne won 73%-25.6% (633-222)

All across the map, you can find areas that have pretty wild crossovers. There are also a ton of townships that have higher turnout for the Senate race than the Presidential race, although none are as crazy as Isle La Motte. Just curious if anyone with local knowledge of Vermont politics has any input.




isle la motte's population is less than 500 sooo

Vermont (like many US states, but maybe more so than most) has a very de-centralized elections system, with elections administered separately by town clerks in each and every little tiny town. This is not the best infrastructure for accuracy. Consequently errors and arbitrary deviations are to be expected.
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muon2
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2018, 08:12:05 PM »

I'm not sure if this is the right section to post this, but oh well.

I just scrolled through the NYT 2016 Vermont results, comparing the Senate results to the Presidential results, and I found some very strange and interesting results.

A few examples:

In the Isle La Motte township in the northwest, Trump narrowly beat Clinton 47.8%-46.4% (140-136), but Scott Milne decimated Pat Leahy 88.2%-10.6% (1,229-148!!!!!!!!). This is definitely the weirdest one.

In the township of Derby, Trump won 50%-44% (1,004-885), but Leahy won 79%-11.8% (1,073-160).

In the township of Reading, Clinton won 64.7%-34.3% (231-108), but Milne won 73%-25.6% (633-222)

All across the map, you can find areas that have pretty wild crossovers. There are also a ton of townships that have higher turnout for the Senate race than the Presidential race, although none are as crazy as Isle La Motte. Just curious if anyone with local knowledge of Vermont politics has any input.




isle la motte's population is less than 500 sooo

Typing an extra digit is a easy error and can explain the result.

In the presidential race the results are Trump 140, Clinton 136, a total of 276, and the Atlas has others getting 30 for a grand total of 306. That's consistent with the town population.

Suppose that Milne's result has an extra digit, so 129 became 1229. If that is the error, then the senate results are Leahy 148 to Milne 129, a total of 277, completely in line with presidential vote. The Atlas has Leahy 148, Milne 133, and 17 for others for a grand total of 298. That's consistent with the kind of fall off from president to senate.

So it almost certainly wasn't an arbitrary number, but a normal typo.
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VPH
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« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2018, 10:54:16 PM »

These reporting errors aside, Vermont does have some interesting results, owing to a high degree of political independence as well as small towns.

Granby: 29% Clinton, 66% Leahy
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