Alaska thread: Mark Begich to challenge Bill Walker

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https://twitter.com/Nat_Herz/status/1002429531037339649

Interesting development, although I can only see this being good for the Republican nominee.

Rather Begich ran for his Senate seat again, tbh.

[heatcharger]

Wow, looking forward to the Republican goon winning this with 35% of the vote.

[Fubart Solman]

YES

Begich is King. Nothing against Walker, but he's no Mark Begich.

[wesmoorenerd]

My gut reaction to this news was negative, but logically Begich has a shot here. Begich held an 11 point lead over likely Republican nominee Mike Dunleavy in the general. Some problems, however:

1. Walker was planning on running for the Democratic ticket, but also said that if Begich declared he would run as an independent. Begich, therefore, pretty much has the Democratic nomination in the bag. However...

2. That 11 point lead is inaccurate since that poll was for a head to head race between Begich and Dunleavy. Since Walker will most likely run as an independent, like he did previously, there's a good chance the center-left vote is split between the two and Dunleavy could swoop in and take the victory with a low vote percentage. That's the worst case scenario for the Dems.

3. If Begich loses in the primary (somehow) or in the general, as previously mentioned, he has a significantly worse chance of unseating Sullivan in 2020 to regain his old Senate seat. Sullivan isn't particularly strong and Ethan Berkowitz may be able to defeat him, but Begich's loss would pretty much rule him out as a future candidate.

Let's hope Begich knows what he's doing.

[wesmoorenerd]

Hopefully Walker just drops out now.

Walker said if Begich declared he would run as an independent. Begich has the nomination in the bag now, but there's a good chance Walker and Begich split the vote and allow an easy Dunleavy victory. I really don't think Walker would drop out for Begich's benefit either way - he was a former Republican, after all.

[wesmoorenerd]

Sorry for the spammy posting habits, but some more Alaska news: former Lt. Gov Mead Treadwell is also considering throwing his hat in the ring last minute, and he would be a serious contender for the Republican nomination. Either way, we'll know by the end of today, since Friday, Jun 1 is the filing deadline in Alaska. Also, I read on some random blog that former State Rep. Mike Chenault may be dropping out of the race, but I see absolutely no other sources corroborating that story, so take that with a grain of salt.

[Xing]

If it’s a three-way race, congrats Governor Dunleavy.

[YE]

How would rural Alaska vote in a 3 way race? For Walker or Begich? 

[wesmoorenerd]

How would rural Alaska vote in a 3 way race? For Walker or Begich? 

I have a hunch Begich will do better than Walker, solely because Walker is so unpopular and rural Alaska mostly leans to the left. Republican strength in Alaska is mostly concentrated (I think) in the outskirts of Anchorage, Fairbanks, and small towns in that area.

[Politician]

Tossup->Lean R.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Begich should've run against Don Young.

[Lord Admirale]

I think if Walker drops out if he fails to get the Democratic-Libertarian-Independence nom, Begich can pull this off.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I think if Walker drops out if he fails to get the Democratic-Libertarian-Independence nom, Begich can pull this off.

It has been said in Alaskan Press that if Begich runs then Walker would drop out of the dem race and just run as an independent, we'll see if that happens today.

[Skye]

Man, this turn of events is so interesting.

Alaska is such a weird state.

[BuckeyeNut]

If it’s a three-way race, congrats Governor Dunleavy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK isn't s tipping point race,  anyways,  so the GOP can win it.

[fluffypanther19]

If it’s a three-way race, congrats Governor Dunleavy.

[Blair]

How unpopular/disliked is Walker?

My gut reaction too was that this would give the seat to the GOP, mainly because filling late never fills me with confidence but yeah Alaskan politics does seem insane enough for anything to happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have to wait late for this one to be called for GOP

[TheSaint250]

Come on, Bill! You can do this

[Alabama_Indy10]

Both Begich and Walker are FF's

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Except AK isn't a purple state,  walker was a surprise winner in 2014.

[Sestak]

Oh boy

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh sh!t.

[Pandaguineapig]

I also think that Begich working in D.C since he lost reelection could hurt much of his appeal