Any state trending red beyond the Trump years

[MillennialModerate]

I know some states trended red in this last election because the white working class rural voters fell for the con-artists “I’m for the forgotten man!” pitch. But that was just one election.

With millennial going Democratic in droves and the nation getting more urban, with minorities making up a larger and larger share of the electorate - you’d have to think the nation as a whole is becoming more Democratic, in theory anyway.

My question is, we have all seen Virginia go from “surprise toss-up!l in ‘08 to Toss-up in ‘12 to Likely D in ‘16.... and the state is trending more and more non-atlas blue.... so are there any states bucking the trend, being the reverse Virginia and becoming more GOP red not just now but becoming more non-atlas red indefinitely?

[MillennialModerate]

Oh I see

[PoliticalShelter]

I think you mean the word swing not the word trend. By definition it is impossible for there not to be at least a few states trending towards the GOP.

As for states swinging towards the GOP. That will depend entirely how the next few elections go. It is entirely possible that a Democratic president gets extremely unlucky and have all sorts of disastrous events happen, that allow a Republican candidate to win the Popular vote and swing most states towards him/her.

[twenty42]

I know some states trended red in this last election because the white working class rural voters fell for the con-artists “I’m for the forgotten man!” pitch. But that was just one election.

With millennial going Democratic in droves and the nation getting more urban, with minorities making up a larger and larger share of the electorate - you’d have to think the nation as a whole is becoming more Democratic, in theory anyway.

My question is, we have all seen Virginia go from “surprise toss-up!l in ‘08 to Toss-up in ‘12 to Likely D in ‘16.... and the state is trending more and more non-atlas blue.... so are there any states bucking the trend, being the reverse Virginia and becoming more GOP red not just now but becoming more non-atlas red indefinitely?

2008 —> D+7, 22 R states
2012 —> D+4, 24 R states
2016 —> D+2, 30 R states + ME-02

[MillennialModerate]

I think you mean the word swing not the word trend. By definition it is impossible for there not to be at least a few states trending towards the GOP.

Yes, you’re correct

[Sir Mohamed]

Maybe not trending further red, but I think PA, MI and WI may not reach Obama 2008 levels at the presidential level any time soon.

[Yellowhammer]

Michigan. It was considered a solid blue state by most until 2016, just as Virginia was 'solid Red' until 2008 when it wasn't anymore. It's still quite competitive and very much a toss up, but it swung to the right as quickly as Virginia swung to the left.
2020 will tell us if this was a lasting change.

[Mr. Smith]

Michigan, Ohio, and Maine.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

How about MN, WI and ME?

[MillennialModerate]

I can see Maine trending back that way.

Michigan was a fluke though

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can see Maine trending back that way.

Michigan was a fluke though

Possibly, but the margin for error is slipping because Detroit is shrinking. So Detroit declining might just mean in a future cycle a Democratic candidate gets the same level of support in raw numbers of Detroit, despite superior turnout by percentage and thus loses because there are simply fewer voters voting in the city. On the other hand they might be in Atlanta voting.


Missouri went from a swing state to solid GOP because the Dems lost ground in rural areas and also St. Louis is not what it used to be.

[Sadader]

I can see Maine trending back that way.

Michigan was a fluke though

Possibly, but the margin for error is slipping because Detroit is shrinking. So Detroit declining might just mean in a future cycle a Democratic candidate gets the same level of support in raw numbers of Detroit, despite superior turnout by percentage and thus loses because there are simply fewer voters voting in the city. On the other hand they might be in Atlanta voting.

Alternatively, I wouldn’t be particularly surprised with a major resurgence of Detroit pushing Michigan back left. We might see a bump back to a lean dem state in 2020, with a short-medium term trend making it an R leaning swing state, and longer term it being D again.

[Skill and Chance]

Michigan.  It will be a 10 point Republican win sometime during 2028-36.  Another sleeper possibility is Rhode Island, but that's only for the long run, like Mississippi is as a Dem opportunity right now. 

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Rhode Island, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas?