MD-WaPo/U.Md.: Hogan holds double digits lead among all opponents

[Virginiá]

All hail, Supreme Republican Overlord Hogan!

[Maxwell]

Surprised by Jealous leading the primary. Too many undecideds for it to mean much though.

well jealous got some very high profile endorsements, so I feel like it was bound to happen at some point.

[AtorBoltox]

A 10 point lead against opponents with extremely low name recognition is not a good result. Pure toss up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes,  especially against Ben Jealous who will be sure to turn out the Black vote when Harris comes to visit😀

[brand_allen]

A 10 point lead against opponents with extremely low name recognition is not a good result. Pure toss up

A 10 point lead is certainly not what I would expect from someone with a 74/20% job approval rating among registered voters.

But then again, this is Maryland we're talking about.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would like to see a PPP poll on this race

[Tartarus Sauce]

What did the polls show for Ehrlich at this point in 2006? Was he also hovering around 50%?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter at this point,  it's June,  in a 25% black state with Ben Jealous on the ballot.

[Yellowhammer]

Yes,  but with Blacks voters,  they wait til last minute to make up minds,  Baker or Jealous can make up  10 point spread.

Harris probably will be coming,  since she endorsed Jealous

Most black voters do not wait until the last minute to choose between voting republican or democrat, lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes,  but with Blacks voters,  they wait til last minute to make up minds,  Baker or Jealous can make up  10 point spread.

Harris probably will be coming,  since she endorsed Jealous

Most black voters do not wait until the last minute to choose between voting republican or democrat, lol.

No,  but they are undersampled and they will be a GOTV effort on the part of Jealous and Harris to get blacks to vote. We saw the same dead cat bounce in 2006 with Ehrlich and Martin OMalley.

Plus Ben Cardin is on ballot and energize Union households,  unlike in NH and MA,  where there aren't many minorities.

I believe once PPP polls this race, gap will close to 4 to 5.

[libertpaulian]

Tilt R with Jealous.  He can help drive up African-American turnout.

Likely R with any of the others.

[Cold War Liberal]

Tilt R with Jealous.  He can help drive up African-American turnout.

Likely R with any of the others.

Seriously, what is with this idea that Jealous is a good candidate? He hasn't held any elected office ever, and hasn't been in any office of any kind in half a decade. Neither has his running mate. His ideology isn't a very good fit for my state either. To pretend that black people will ignore this because he's black is condescending.

Also, why is Jealous uniquely qualified to turn out African-Americans? Rushern Baker, Valerie Ervin, and James Jones are also black. Baker is to Jealous's right, Ervin is to his left, and I have no idea what Jones's positions are, as he's a minor candidate.

Baker is like Clinton ideologically, while Jealous is like Sanders. I don't really expect any of them to win but I think Baker could make it close (~51-48) while Jealous (and, unfortunately, Ervin too) would give Hogan a healthy reelection (like 53-45)

Plus Ben Cardin is on ballot and energize Union households,  unlike in NH and MA,  where there aren't many minorities.

LMAO what? "Ben Cardin" and "energize" do not belong in the same sentence, ever. Nevertheless, he'll win reelection easily, especially since:
1) He has no real primary challenge (sorry Chelsea)
2) MDGOP doesn't really have anyone to put up against him (none of the Republican candidates even have Wikipedia articles lol)

[Politician]

Why are people still trying to have a conversation with olawakandi

[IceSpear]

Why are people still trying to have a conversation with olawakandi

Presumably the same reason they try to have conversations with bronz and Andrew.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, in a gubernatorial cycle, the states don't have to vote their respective party, and Hogan is still very popular.

[RINO Tom]

Why are people still trying to have a conversation with olawakandi

Presumably the same reason they try to have conversations with bronz and Andrew.

Conversations involving bronz and OC are some of the last remnants of good entertainment on this site.

[Bidenworth2020]

Tilt R with Jealous.  He can help drive up African-American turnout.

Likely R with any of the others.

Seriously, what is with this idea that Jealous is a good candidate? He hasn't held any elected office ever, and hasn't been in any office of any kind in half a decade. Neither has his running mate. His ideology isn't a very good fit for my state either. To pretend that black people will ignore this because he's black is condescending.

Also, why is Jealous uniquely qualified to turn out African-Americans? Rushern Baker, Valerie Ervin, and James Jones are also black. Baker is to Jealous's right, Ervin is to his left, and I have no idea what Jones's positions are, as he's a minor candidate.

Baker is like Clinton ideologically, while Jealous is like Sanders. I don't really expect any of them to win but I think Baker could make it close (~51-48) while Jealous (and, unfortunately, Ervin too) would give Hogan a healthy reelection (like 53-45)

Plus Ben Cardin is on ballot and energize Union households,  unlike in NH and MA,  where there aren't many minorities.

LMAO what? "Ben Cardin" and "energize" do not belong in the same sentence, ever. Nevertheless, he'll win reelection easily, especially since:
1) He has no real primary challenge (sorry Chelsea)
2) MDGOP doesn't really have anyone to put up against him (none of the Republican candidates even have Wikipedia articles lol)

any generic dem senator will energize voting for than no senate race.

[Cold War Liberal]

Baker is like Clinton ideologically, while Jealous is like Sanders. I don't really expect any of them to win but I think Baker could make it close (~51-48) while Jealous (and, unfortunately, Ervin too) would give Hogan a healthy reelection (like 53-45)

I'm not sure I'm quite following here - Is your opposition to Jealous rooted in his alleged weakness v. Hogan in the general election, even though you yourself have stated ITT that you plan on supporting Hogan in such a matchup?

No. Again, experience and platform are the biggest things to me. Jealous is idealistic, sure, but Baker is pragmatic AND has a record of actually getting things done AND is currently in office. Additionally, Baker is closer ideologically to what I believe is the mainstream of the MD electorate. I could be wrong!

My issue with Sanders and candidates who share his style (i.e. Jealous) is not their ideology; I agree with them on most issues. My issue is that they're idealistic without actually containing much substance. In Jealous's case, the issues he cares about are national. His website contains vague platitudes about Medicare for All and green energy which are great, but how the hell is he going to that stuff and also, say, provide free pre-K to everyone through a pot tax? Baker, on the other hand, is also progressive, but has pages and pages of issues, and it feels like he cares about the state. He specifically mentions the Chesapeake Bay restoration project and has a lengthy page dedicated to his plans to revitalize Baltimore. Both Jealous and Baker agree that Hogan has been terrible for education in our state, but Baker goes into more detail about how he plans to make the situation better. Stuff like this matters to me, and it should to more people. Idealism is great, but at some point we need to actually have a plan to get stuff done.

[YE]

To be honest, there's something about Jealous that strikes me as incompetent and in over his head. I'm still rooting for him tepidly but he's not my favorite Berniecrat. I might support Hogan in the GE as I don't really mind Hogan given the check on him in the legislature and if we're not gonna get some really nice progressive, might as well go for the incumbent (plus it may increase the chances of a fair MD map next round of redistricting). Of course my opinion is useless since I've never even been to Maryland.

Honestly at least Bernie Sanders had written hundreds of bills and introduced them to Congress. Jealous seems less substantive and substance matters more from executive offices than legislative offices, which is why I support more moderate candidates in gubernatorial ones and progressives in house races.

[Adam Griffin]

I'd say the real situation on the ground - if the election were held today - would produce a 6-point Hogan win. This race isn't completely lost for Dems.

[IceSpear]

Why are people still trying to have a conversation with olawakandi

Presumably the same reason they try to have conversations with bronz and Andrew.

lol, it's especially funny since you actually were having a conversation in this thread.

[kyc0705]

What did the polls show for Ehrlich at this point in 2006? Was he also hovering around 50%?

In the late spring/early summer of 2006, Ehrlich was trailing by about 10 points in every poll, and was averaging in the high 30s to low 40s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_2006#Polling

[sg0508]

I still believe this race will be much closer than many think.  Republicans have yet to prove to me that they can win a statewide in MD going away and their ceiling always seems around 52-53%.

Hogan may win, but I bet it's by <10 pts when all is said and done.

[Young Conservative]

What did the polls show for Ehrlich at this point in 2006? Was he also hovering around 50%?

In the late spring/early summer of 2006, Ehrlich was trailing by about 10 points in every poll, and was averaging in the high 30s to low 40s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_2006#Polling

in 2006, Democrats also benefited from a singular candidate instead of a crowded primary. This freed up financial resources and allowed O'Malley to focus on the GE.