Uruguayan presidential and congressional elections, October 26, 2019

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Rep. Fernando Amado (PC-Montevideo), generally considered to be on the left of the Colorado Party (and founder of the Batllistas Orejanos sector), quits to join the PI-led coalition.

[Peeperkorn]

Muy buen thread. Thanks, Alfred.

Uruguay really needs an economic liberal as the next president. The current model of "We do as Nordic countries do but with Latin American income (and people)" is a road to disaster.

[ag]

Muy buen thread. Thanks, Alfred.

Uruguay really needs an economic liberal as the next president. The current model of "We do as Nordic countries do but with Latin American income (and people)" is a road to disaster.

I mean, even beggars in Montevideo are blond.

[Peeperkorn]

Many of my left-wing colorado friends in politics kind of supported Amado's ideas, but they didn't believe in him as a person/leader. He was too much confrontative, and in Uruguay that's suspicious.

[Peeperkorn]

Muy buen thread. Thanks, Alfred.

Uruguay really needs an economic liberal as the next president. The current model of "We do as Nordic countries do but with Latin American income (and people)" is a road to disaster.

I mean, even beggars in Montevideo are blond.

No entendí. Saludos.

Didn't understand. Greetings.

[ag]

Muy buen thread. Thanks, Alfred.

Uruguay really needs an economic liberal as the next president. The current model of "We do as Nordic countries do but with Latin American income (and people)" is a road to disaster.

I mean, even beggars in Montevideo are blond.

No entendí. Saludos.

Didn't understand. Greetings.

Choose one language please.

[Peeperkorn]

Muy buen thread. Thanks, Alfred.

Uruguay really needs an economic liberal as the next president. The current model of "We do as Nordic countries do but with Latin American income (and people)" is a road to disaster.

I mean, even beggars in Montevideo are blond.

No entendí. Saludos.

Didn't understand. Greetings.

Choose one language please.

Ok ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Muy buen thread. Thanks, Alfred.

Uruguay really needs an economic liberal as the next president. The current model of "We do as Nordic countries do but with Latin American income (and people)" is a road to disaster.

The leftists I know in Uruguay have a real distaste for Martínez, does that count?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Speaking of Martínez, it’s looking likely that the Liber Seregni Front, the astorista coalition within the FA, will endorse him (possibly in exchange for the Socialists supporting one of them for mayor of Montevideo). https://www.elobservador.com.uy/nota/astorismo-se-inclina-por-martinez-y-negocia-proxima-intendencia--2018927195523

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Lacalle Pou’s sector Todos had a big conference in he town of Trinidad. He struck a more conciliatory tone this time than he has in previous elections, talking about “evolution” rather than “change” and emphasizing that he will not reverse popular FA policies like abortion and gay marriage.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

By the way, the Independent Party of Pablo Mieres has gained a few allies recently, taken from the moderate wings of the three major parties, and is generally trying to carve out its own niche on the center-left (as well as be a potential kingmaker in a runoff between the FA and a PN candidate with PC support). It had previously “co-governed” with the Broad Front until 2015, when it decided to informally join the opposition - although Mieres took care to distance himself and the party from the traditional parties. The main thing they’ve ever done has been inserting a clause into the country’s abortion law that would require a woman seeking an abortion to appear before a non-binding panel in exchange for their support.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Trans rights law was just approved in the Senate with all of the votes from the FA and Pablo Mieres

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Trans rights law was just approved in the Senate with all of the votes from the FA and Pablo Mieres

And now in the House with 62 votes in favor and just 26 against.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ignacio Estrada, substitute for congressman Álvaro Dastugue (the first ever evangelical pastor in Congress), has left Verónica Alonso’s campaign and endorsed Lacalle Pou because Alonso’s campaign was allegedly too dominated by evangelical interests (specifically, the Life Mission Church, run by Dastugue’s father-in-law Jorge Márquez). https://ladiaria.com.uy/articulo/2018/10/suplente-de-dastugue-abandona-espacio-de-alonso-para-respaldar-a-lacalle-pou/

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Broad Front plenary session officially approved the candidacies of Martínez, Cosse, Óscar Andrade (former deputy, current president of the construction workers’ union, candidate of the Communist Party), and Mario Bergara (director of the central bank and astorista). There is still officially room for others to declare before the official party Congress in December (where a ruling on Raúl Sendic’s potential Senate candidacy is also expected) but it looks like this is it at the moment. The MPP will decide whom to support then.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Big news in the FA. The MPP officially backs Carolina Cosse, making it much more of a race and less of a coronation for Martínez. Either way, an eventual Martínez-Cosse or Cosse-Martínez ticket is looking more and more likely.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Forgot to mention that Julio María Sanguinetti (potential Colorado frontrunner and until now one of the major unknowns in the primary) has endorsed Lacalle Pou and called him “pre-president.” Remember when the Whites and Colorado’s were at each other’s throats. Good times.

Anyway, everyone else in and formerly in the party (notably, current frontrunner Ernesto Talvi and centrist defector (to the PI) Fernando Amado) is pissed off at him for essentially capitulating to the Whites before the game’s even played. Should give a boost to Lacalle in the primary, and probably the general too if he can get a viable pink coalition together going into the first round.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

MPP’s support for Cosse is apparently having an effect; she’s now essentially tied with Martínez in the FA primary. https://www.elpais.com.uy/informacion/politica/martinez-cosse-cabeza-cabeza-interna-fa.html

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Reports from El Observador that local centers of the Education and Culture Ministry, intended to sponsor cultural activities in the interior were being used to campaign for the FA, as allegrd by two former employees (at least one of whom is an FA member). https://www.elobservador.com.uy/nota/centros-mec-al-servicio-de-la-cultura-o-del-frente-amplio--201912518551

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What are the odds Uruguay will elect a Conservative President this fall ?

Well, it’s looking fairly likely that the second round of elections will be between the FA (left-wing) candidate and the PN (right-wing) candidate, most likely Lacalle Pou. He’s about tied with Daniel Martinez, the more centrist of the two main FA candidates in the polls, but there haven’t been any second round polls with Cosse, the more left-wing of the two, vs. Lacalle Pou. In first round polling Martínez and Cosse have either performed about the same or Martínez has a slight advantage. Lacalle Pou has a steep hill to climb, since he already lost the past election and the PN has only won one election in the past 50 years - his brand of conservatism (called herrerismo, after his great-grandfather), although it’s fairly dominant within the party, isn’t very popular with the overall electorate. I think he’ll have an easier time winning against Cosse, who can be more easily tied to Pepe Mujica (a very polarizing figure within the country despite his international popularity) and the MPP/left wing of the party. If it’s against Martínez, who’s generally fairly popular in Montevideo and relatively unknown in the interior, he’ll have to work harder. It’s going to be a very negative campaign either way.

Side note: I don’t think Uruguay has ever really had divided government in the same way the US has had, and the results of the congressional election might influence voting behavior in the second round if the FA (unlikely) or PN+PC+PG combined (more likely but far from certain) gets a majority.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Pablo Mieres of the PI/La Alternativa is going to officially announce Selva Andreoli, wife of newspaper editor and former spokesman for the FLS/Astoristas Esteban Valenti and ex-FA member, as his running mate on March 19th. https://twitter.com/pindependiente/status/1105978548374982658?s=21

[LoneStarDem]

Very possible Uruguay will get the first pro-American President since the late Jorge Battle.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Pablo Mieres of the PI/La Alternativa is going to officially announce Selva Andreoli, wife of newspaper editor and former spokesman for the FLS/Astoristas Esteban Valenti and ex-FA member, as his running mate on March 19th. https://twitter.com/pindependiente/status/1105978548374982658?s=21

Lmao jk, La Alternativa is officially bust after Andreoli (and iirc her sector that she has with her husband, Navegantes, composed of ex-FA members) said she’d vote for the FA over the PN in a hypothetical second round. Mieres has officially removed the PI from that coalition and now Fernando Amado and Valenti and Andreoli and some Batlle cousin are left adrift, and also unable to legally run for Congress anymore because they don’t officially belong to any party or coalition anymore.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Very possible Uruguay will get the first pro-American President since the late Jorge Battle.

They’re closer now than they’ve ever been since 2004! Although in the latest Grupo Radar poll Martínez is beating Lacalle in the head to head 46%-41%, so he’s got a bit of an advantage as of now.

[Peeperkorn]

Primary elections results: