Uruguayan presidential and congressional elections, October 26, 2019

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Latin America's tiniest and, arguably, most normal country is going to have another round of elections in 2019. Things won't really start coming together until after the World Cup (they love their soccer) and the campaign won't kick into high gear until next year, but there are still some preliminary goings-on that are shaping the terms of the race in the land of legal weed.

FRENTE AMPLIO/BROAD FRONT

The leftist ruling coalition is...well, it's not collapsing, but it's not riding high, either. After five years of decent but not outstanding economic growth, the FA is betting on its economic and social record over the past fifteen years to stave off the advance of the opposition. A worryingly increasing homicide rate and a general feeling of insecurity, coupled with the revelation that Vice President and former future President Raúl Sendic (son of Tupamaro guerrilla Raúl Sendic) had used state oil refinery ANCAP as his personal credit card while he was at the helm, are throwing new and previously unseen obstacles in the coalition's way.

The current frontrunner, the one candidate everyone knows will run and who everyone knows will at least be competitive, is current indendente (departmental governor) of Montevideo Daniel Martínez, of the Socialist Party (part of the moderate wing of the coalition). He, uh...loves bikes, I guess. I don't know too much about his political views, but he has said Uruguay needs to dial it back on the state-run enterprises, reduce the debt, sign free trade agreements (including an upcoming one with Chile that is fiercely dividing the FA's moderate and radical wings), standard center/center-left stuff. He's fairly popular in Montevideo, despite everyone on the internet hating him for not cleaning up trash enough or whatever. With his 62 years of age (young for the FA!), he's attempting to take the mantle of the "renovation" wing of the FA, and barring any unforeseen developments he's currently the natural frontrunner for the presidential nomination. Unless...

The meme man of Montevideo himself, JOSÉ MUJICAAAAAA, President from 2010 to 2015, legalizer of marijuana, abortion, and gay marriage, and king of the leftist Popular Participation Movement (MPP, the largest single group within the FA) is currently a big fat question mark. If he stays out of the race, as he has said he wants to, Martínez is the undisputed frontrunner. No one else comes close. Mujica will probably support either Industry Minister Carolina Cosse or Canelones governor Yamandú Orsi (most likely Orsi, as Cosse is perceived as too close to current President Tabaré Vásquez) in the race against Martínez, but without the presence of the man himself the MPP and the left of the party will be much weaker in general. If he does run the race wis loooking to be a nailbiter, with the most recent poll showing Mujica and Martínez at 37% and 36% respectively.

Either way, however, Mujica will probably play a big role in the selection of the coalition's vice presidential candidate: if he is the nominee, it is generally understood that he will be allowed to handpick his running mate in order to ensure continuity for when he probably dies in office (he's 85, jeez), and if Martínez wins the moderates will give the radicals (the MPP and the Communist Party) the VP slot like they did in 2014. There's a good chance that would be Orsi, as he's seen as Mujica's protege, but there is also agitation within the party to put a woman on the ticket, which would most likely be either Cosse or Senator Constanza Moreira (of the left-wing Casa Grande sector).

PARTIDO NACIONAL/BLANCOS/NATIONAL PARTY/WHITES

The frontrunner for the right-wing opposition party is the same candidate they ran last time in 2014, Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou, son of former President (1990-1995) and 2010 nominee Luis Alberto Lacalle Herrera. He represents the more moderate (but still conservative) "herrerista" wing of the party, and is opposed by 2004 nominee and 2009 and 2014 VP nominee Jorge Larrañaga, of the more populist right-wing "wilsonistas." Larrañaga's main angle is the growing insecurity in the country, and he hopes that his attempt to launch a plebiscite on constitutional reform, aimed at strengthening and militarizing the national police force, will gain im support from the hardline conservatives and from voters impatient for something to be done about rising crime rates. Lacalle Pou opposes the proposed reforms and has not signed on to the proposal (it needs 10% of the voting population to sign it, or around 250,000 people, in order to get onto the ballot in October). Verónica Alonso is also a potential candidate, but she )as well as Larraága, frankly) doesn't have much chance. Might be a good running mate for Lacalle Pou, though.

It's generally expected that the real competition will be between these two parties, and that there will almost certainly be a second round in the Presidential election (to take place the November after the first=. This has led (or rather will lead) to fierce competition between the blancos and frentistas for the votes of the so-called "disenchanted frentistas," the ones who voted for the FA in 2004, 2009, and/or 2014, but in the past five years may have soured on the party and in this election make up the majority of the undecided voters. The blancos want to convince them to make the leap to the other side, whereas the FA wants to keep them in their pocket, and this has led analysts to conclude that both parties will try to run towards the center in the general election (as candidates are wont to do) - hence the candidacies of Lacalle Pou and Martínez. The FA has seen a sharp drop in popularity over the past five years, due in large part to the Sendic scandal (which saw him being forced to resign and is currently causing controversy within the coalition, since Raulito wants to head up his traditional list for his Senate candidacy), but since his resignation they have bounced back from their lowest depths. The PN is holding steady at its 2014 levels, not moving up, not moving down (well, maybe a tiny bit up). The polls generally show the FA with a slight lead in both the parliamentary and presidential elections, although short of a majority, and the second round is neck and neck between Martínez and Lacalle Pou, with each at 40%. Apparently the numbers don't change much with Mujica and/or Larrañaga, but that was behind a paywall so I couldn't see the actual figures. The main thing, I think, is that whoever wins is going to have a tough time actuall doing things, since it's looking fairly clear at this point that no one party will get a majority of deputies (50/99). However, the two "traditional parties," the PC and PN, together are generally considered the political right, and may form a sort of coalition government if the PN wins the Presidency.

OTHER PARTIES: COLORADOS, INDEPENDENT PARTY, PEOPLE'S PARTY, POPULAR UNITY

The Colorado Party, one of the oldest continuously existing political parties in the world, has been in a bit of a slump for the last 20 years. After dominating much of the 19th and 20th century and producing some of Uruguay's greatest leaders (for good and ill), including the famed reformer  José Batlle y Ordóñez, '70s dictator Juan María Bordaberry, andfirst post-dictatorship President Julio María Sanguinetti. After the economic crisis of the early 2000s, under Colorado President Jorge Batlle (a descendant of Battle y Ordóñez and two other previous presidents), the party collapsed and has septn the past few decades attempting to carve out a space between the right-wing blancos and left-wing FA. It is currently fighting for a distant third place in the polls with the Independent Party (Partido Independiente), a centrist and "social-Christian" offshoot of the FA, and the People's Party (Partido de la Gente), a personalist movement centered around businessman Edgardo Novick. The PC's most likely candidate is José Amorín Batlle, yet another member of that family, although other possibilities including economist Ernesto Talvi are also being floated. The PI will nominate somebody random and the PG will nominate Novick. There's also a far left party called Popular Unity (Unidad Popular), with one (1) deputy in Congress, and they might manage to get a second one this time around, so that's nice. Good job.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Sendic (former VP and head of ANCAP who was forced to resign over a massive embezzlement scandal) was officially charged with various counts of misuse of public funds several days ago, although he was not jailed. If he had been (and when he eventually is) he would be unable to run for Senate or head up his sector of the FA, Compromiso Frenteamplista/Lista 711. As it stands, he will be able to do so unless the Electoral Court rules against him or the appeals process is finally finished (he has stated he plans to plead not guilty and appeal the charges), which may take a while, even until after the election.

This puts a lot of the FA in an uncomfortable position, as they certainly do not want the smiling face of their single biggest electoral liability plastered all over Montevideo. The more moderate wing (as well as most of the top leadership) is pushing for the party infrastructure to act quickly and drop Sendic, or even expel him from the party (although this is a long shot), whereas the more radical wing wants to wait until the whole process is resolved, which is stupid and bad. If Sendic is allowed to run with the endorsement of the FA the opposition will not shut up about it, especially if Mujica is the nominee, as he was the one who had been pushing to get Sendic on the ticket in 2019. Party president Javier Miranda has said "if I were him I would step aside, but I'm not him," so I suppose we'll have to wait until the hellish bureaucracy that is the FA's internal party structure gets around to whatever it is they get around to.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Oh, there was also a big meeting between Lacalle Pou, Larrañaga, and Julio María Sanguinetti (of the PC if you remember him) about a formal coalition (possibly with Sanguinetti at the head) to face off against the FA in 2019. This might make it somewhat easier for Mujica to justify his candidacy if he runs and wins, as he won't be the only "dinosaur" in the race and the opposition won't be able to make the generational-change argument. Of course, there's nothing formally established yet, but we'll see.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Opción Consultores poll puts Larrañaga at 44% vs 43% for Mujica in a potential second round and 42% vs 41% for Martínez. Lacalle Pou gets the same numbers against Mujica but loses to Martinez 43% to 41%.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Opción Consultores poll puts Larrañaga at 44% vs 43% for Mujica in a potential second round and 42% vs 41% for Martínez. Lacalle Pou gets the same numbers against Mujica but loses to Martinez 43% to 41%.

Please keep us up to date! This is really interesting. You said that Larrañaga doesn't have much of a chance at the nomination (is that the right term?). Has your opinion changed. It seems like maybe running on a populist platform would win more votes than being a vague moderate like Lacalle Pou wants.

I think it would, especially since Lacalle Pou would be in a tough position with regards to Larrañaga’s proposal if he were the nominee, but the whole establishment seems to be behind him and the only poll I’ve seen has him at 60% to Larrañaga’s 20%. Of course, there’s still a year before the actual primary, but LLP is definitely the frontrunner at this point.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Interesting article about how a good performance in the World Cup could potentially help out the FA (although of course with the caveat that the election will still be over a year away by the time it's over).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Interesting article about how a good performance in the World Cup could potentially help out the FA (although of course with the caveat that the election will still be over a year away by the time it's over).

This type of nonsense is always talked about by "experts" around here too, and it's basically bullcrap. This article is pretty bad, full of "well, this might happen, but it might not", a comparison with 9/11 in the US (lol) and the only example that they can come up with is when in 2014 a second round loss led to a whopping...2% loss of the vote in the voting intention (lol)

The only way this could have any sort of impact is if the election was held within a month or so of the end of the world cup.


In fact, looking at Argentina for the past 32 years, it seems that the opposite is true!

Oh, I certainly don't think it's going to have any actual effect, but it's fun to think about. Like how good weather on Election Day helps incumbents.

Also there's no news ever in Uruguay and I have to do something to fill this thread until December.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Man, apparently stuff's still happening during the World Cup. Danilo Astori (finance minister under both Vásquez governments and Mujica's vice president, although from what I hear not a very influential one) reeeeally wants to be President. But: doesn't look like he'll run unless he can get broad support behind him to challenge Martínez. He needs the backing of sectors beyond beyond just the FLS (Frente Líber Seregni, named after the FA's founder and first president, the most moderate wing of the coalition and itself a coalition of three smaller parties), especially Mujica and the MPP and getting that support might be difficult. Just recently he had a private meeting with Mujica to ask for his support (most of the sector basically follows Mujica's lead wherever he goes, with some exceptions), and it doesn't seem like he got a hard yes. Mujica, along with others in the MPP, want a so-called "indepdendent" candidate to go against Martínez, someone without too-close ties to either him or Astori - this may rule out Yamandú Orsi, who has been talked about (as previously menitoned) as a sort of substitute candidate for Mujica and is seen as close to him, and central bank president Mario Bergara, who has indicated that he wants to run if Astori doesn't. Cosse might be a good option, but her star is apparently fading within the MPP as of late, as she's seen as too close to Vásquez.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Grupo Radar poll of a potential FA primary conducted June 17-24 (660 people, online):

Martínez 42%
Orsi 16%
Mujica 14%
Cosse 14%
Bergara 5%
Astori 5%
Other/DK: 5%

Mujica does better among youngs (barely winning the under-30 vote) whereas Martínez dominates among olds, middle- and upper-class people, and FLS voters. He also wins MPP voters, albeit barely, and he’s far below Orsi and Mujica’s combined total there. Over 60% of potential voters don’t want Mujica or Astori to run, and that includes the FLS for Astori. RIP the dream, 4ever in our hearts.

http://www.gruporadar.com.uy/01/?p=2243

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Worth noting that if you add up Orsi, Mujica, and Cosse's results in that poll you get 44% to Martínez's 42%. And that's assuming a 1:1 transfer of all that support to the mythical MPP savior, which is not likely (especially with Cosse's voters, who I would imagine jare less hard-leftist than Orsi's or Mujica's).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Good article about the divisions among the wilsonistas. Mostly focuses on Larrañaga's people (the so-called Group of 8 and most of the wilsonista), who want him to run as a centrist (con la mano dura) as opposed to Lacalle Pou's muh market reforms and create more of a wilsonista big tent campaign, but there's some good attention given to Verónica Alonso and the "rebel governors," who are talking about running a third candidate. This would almost certainly be Alonso, who has the highest approval rating among her, Larrañaga, and Lacalle Pou, although Cerro Largo governor Sergio Botana's name is also in the mix. Both camps are bullish about their chances of becoming the main wilsonista candidate and eventually beating Lacalle Pou.

https://www.elpais.com.uy/que-pasa/blancos-rojo-vivo.html

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(Todos, led by Lacalle Pou, and Alianza Nacional, led by Larrañaga, are the main sectors of the herrerista and wilsonista wings, respectively. Alonso is a wilsonista but is not in Alianza Nacional.)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Orsi says he will not be a candidate. The left/MPP will really have to scrounge around for someone to challenge Martinez now. Labor Minister Ernesto Murro’s name has been floated, but he’s constitutionally ineligible to run for any office until 2020 due to having served as director of the Banco de Previsión Social until 2015. He’s also tight with the PIT-CNT, the main labor organization in the country, and not that popular. Really a sacrificial lamb for the MPP, or maybe a name being tossed out to make whoever they do choose to run seem more popular. Cosse?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Factum survey gives the country’s education system a 36% approval rating, with 61% disapproving. Education has been consistently mentioned by all parties as a key issue facing the country for a while now, with the left demanding 6% of GDP be spent on education and the right supporting the comprehensive Eduy21 plan (which is not without support from the left, mind you).

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Alonso is officially running.

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Several sectors within the FA are planning on making endorsements soon, most notably the PS and Vertiente Artiguista (part of the astorista bloc) for Martínez. Cosse and Murro are both angling for the PCU’s endorsement.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Breakaway group of white governors (Wilsonistas who left Alianza Nacional) nominates Enrique Antía (governor of Maldonado) as their candidate in the primary. Group is officially called Mejor País; its program emphasizes decentralization (as do most wilsonistas in general).

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https://www.elpais.com.uy/informacion/politica/larranaga-acorta-diferencia-lacalle.html

New poll out for the White primary. Lacalle Pou still leads 48-29 but Larrañaga is closing the gap. Alonso is in third with 18%.

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Larrañaga’s plebiscite is making a big push for signatures this weekend; the campaign is saying they’re currently at around 100K out of 280K needed to get on the ballot.

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Communist Party has formally nominated former congressman and current president of the construction workers’ union Óscar Andrade, after some rumors swirled about endorsing Martínez (never that likely) or potentially Cosse. Cosse, who had previously said she’ll “do whatever he party asks” has been nominated by the relatively young and small Left Path sector.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Rep. Fernando Amado (PC-Montevideo), generally considered to be on the left of the Colorado Party (and founder of the Batllistas Orejanos sector), quits to join the PI-led coalition.

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Muy buen thread. Thanks, Alfred.

Uruguay really needs an economic liberal as the next president. The current model of "We do as Nordic countries do but with Latin American income (and people)" is a road to disaster.

The leftists I know in Uruguay have a real distaste for Martínez, does that count?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Speaking of Martínez, it’s looking likely that the Liber Seregni Front, the astorista coalition within the FA, will endorse him (possibly in exchange for the Socialists supporting one of them for mayor of Montevideo). https://www.elobservador.com.uy/nota/astorismo-se-inclina-por-martinez-y-negocia-proxima-intendencia--2018927195523

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Lacalle Pou’s sector Todos had a big conference in he town of Trinidad. He struck a more conciliatory tone this time than he has in previous elections, talking about “evolution” rather than “change” and emphasizing that he will not reverse popular FA policies like abortion and gay marriage.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

By the way, the Independent Party of Pablo Mieres has gained a few allies recently, taken from the moderate wings of the three major parties, and is generally trying to carve out its own niche on the center-left (as well as be a potential kingmaker in a runoff between the FA and a PN candidate with PC support). It had previously “co-governed” with the Broad Front until 2015, when it decided to informally join the opposition - although Mieres took care to distance himself and the party from the traditional parties. The main thing they’ve ever done has been inserting a clause into the country’s abortion law that would require a woman seeking an abortion to appear before a non-binding panel in exchange for their support.