Is Idaho trending democratic
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2024, 06:05:55 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Is Idaho trending democratic		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Is Idaho trending democratic  (Read 2836 times)
Da2017
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,475
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 05, 2018, 01:02:00 PM »
Does Idaho have an underlying democratic trend?
Logged
cvparty
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2018, 01:11:30 PM »
idk if it's actually trending D right now but if Boise continues to grow rapidly and trend D the state should as well
Logged
ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,250
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2018, 01:14:10 PM »
Nope.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2018, 01:21:38 PM »
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2018, 01:25:22 PM »
Is Idaho trending Republican or remaining fairly stable?
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,014
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2018, 01:37:52 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2018, 02:05:34 PM by RINO Tom »
Everywhere is trending Democratic, except for the Midwest - which has, overnight, become Appalachia except even worse.  It is known.

EDIT: For real, though, even if you are the type that thinks 2016 trends are here to stay for a while, and an explosion of Boise's suburbs into bastions of *educated* DLCers, Idaho is so Republican now that it wouldn't even be remotely competitive in the near future, and by the time such trends would tilt the scales over to the Democrats, we are almost CERTAINLY likely to have a few events/elections that swing the coalitions in a different way.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,522
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2018, 01:45:36 PM »
Maybe, but not fast enough to be remotely competitive in the near future.  Kind of like Rhode Island trending Republican, Rhode Island is still solidly Democratic at the presidential level.
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,722


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2018, 01:46:51 PM »
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,961
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2018, 06:53:58 PM »
No. It was all McMullin and Mormons in 2016.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2018, 03:44:07 PM »
Even with Trump's abysmal Mormon performance the margin between him and Hillary was almost the same as between Romney and Obama.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2018, 03:48:05 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on June 05, 2018, 06:53:58 PM
No. It was all McMullin and Mormons in 2016.
Logged
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,436


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2018, 11:53:17 PM »
All I see is that ID might swing significantly toward D (albeit not nearly enough to flip it outright) if the national result is Democratic landslide. Otherwise, if the NPV margin were closer, the state will swing back toward R.

Additionally, an analysis done by FiveThirtyEight indicated that even the most pro-Democratic gerrymander of ID would give the Democrats a less than 4% of winning one of the two congressional seats.
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2018, 12:03:16 AM »
I can see the argument for Montana, but not Idaho
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2018, 12:04:55 AM »
Quote from: morgankingsley on June 09, 2018, 12:03:16 AM
I can see the argument for Montana, but not Idaho
Logged
MarkD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,172
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2018, 02:35:40 PM »
In 2004 Idaho voted 30.26% Democratic and 68.38% Republican.
In 2008 it voted 36.09% Democratic and 61.52% Republican.
In 2012 it voted 32.62% Democratic and 64.53% Republican.
In 2016 it voted 27.49% Democratic and 59.26% Republican.

So no, I don't see any trend to the Democratic ticket. Not recently. In 2008 it trended that way but it has snapped back.
Logged
Thunder98
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,576
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2018, 02:58:14 PM »
Quote from: MarkD on June 09, 2018, 02:35:40 PM
In 2004 Idaho voted 30.26% Democratic and 68.38% Republican.
In 2008 it voted 36.09% Democratic and 61.52% Republican.
In 2012 it voted 32.62% Democratic and 64.53% Republican.
In 2016 it voted 27.49% Democratic and 59.26% Republican.

So no, I don't see any trend to the Democratic ticket. Not recently. In 2008 it trended that way but it has snapped back.

The Margins difference between 2012 and 2016 were almost zero. But indeed the margins between 2004 and 2008 were quite significant gains for the Democrats.

2016: 31.8% margin win for Trump
2012: 31.9% margin win for Romney
2008: 25.4% margin win for McCain
2004: 38.1% margin win for Bush
Logged
Tartarus Sauce
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,363
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2018, 05:20:42 PM »
Boise will trend Democrat from this point onward for awhile, but that's not enough to flip the state. Not even close.
Logged
icemanj
Rookie
**
Posts: 116
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 22, 2018, 08:38:52 PM »
Why is Blaine County so reliably democratic?
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,636
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 22, 2018, 11:24:27 PM »
Quote from: icemanj on July 22, 2018, 08:38:52 PM
Why is Blaine County so reliably democratic?
Ski bunnies.
Logged
Dr. MB
MB
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,838
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 23, 2018, 10:33:09 PM »
Idaho will be a swing state by the 2050s. I guarantee.

Rapid growth in the Boise area, slow turning of the suburbs from solid Republican to lean Republican, increased strength in Pocatello and Kootenai County, as well as increasing the Hispanic vote, will cause Idaho to trend D in the longterm.
Logged
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 24, 2018, 06:10:18 PM »
Third Party votes + Mormons revolting for one cycle does not a trend make.
Logged
Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,058
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 24, 2018, 09:46:30 PM »
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on July 24, 2018, 06:10:18 PM
Third Party votes + Mormons revolting for one cycle does not a trend make.

Basically. In fact, the Trump voters in the Panhandle are actually more likely to vote for Democratic candidates at the state level than the Mormons.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,427
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 25, 2018, 06:39:17 AM »
No, its a rural state, but its becoming less conservative; along with other GOP strongholds.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,014
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 25, 2018, 08:19:28 AM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on July 25, 2018, 06:39:17 AM
No, its a rural state, but its becoming less conservative; along with other all GOP strongholds.

FTFY, OC.  This is Atlas, after all. Smiley
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 25, 2018, 09:50:12 AM »
Idaho will probably become slightly more like Colorado, but so slowly it will do little to move the needle.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 11 queries.