First county in Oklahoma to flip?

[I’m not Stu]

Which county in Oklahoma will be the first to vote Democratic? My guess is Oklahoma County.

[Peanut]

Oklahoma is the most likely.

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty much has to be Oklahoma.  Only other plausible scenario involves a GOP collapse in agricultural areas circa 2024 due to an escalating trade war. 

[I’m not Stu]

First county to flip: Oklahoma County
Second County to flip: Tulsa County

[Skill and Chance]

First county to flip: Oklahoma County
Second County to flip: Tulsa County

I think Cleveland (Norman) would flip before Tulsa.  Dems would be credible statewide if/when they are winning all 3 convincingly.

[RINO Tom]

First county to flip: Oklahoma County
Second County to flip: Tulsa County

I think Cleveland (Norman) would flip before Tulsa.  Dems would be credible statewide if/when they are winning all 3 convincingly.

Extremely tall task...

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Oklahoma is the most likely.

[Skill and Chance]

First county to flip: Oklahoma County
Second County to flip: Tulsa County

I think Cleveland (Norman) would flip before Tulsa.  Dems would be credible statewide if/when they are winning all 3 convincingly.

Extremely tall task...

Ehhh... all 3 are GOP outliers compared to other cities/college towns of similar size, even in the middle of the country.  I'm not saying they should end up voting like the Bay Area cities, but look at Omaha, Lincoln, Kansas City, Lawrence, and even Dallas by comparison.  There's a lot of room for Dem improvement in urban Oklahoma. 

[RINO Tom]

First county to flip: Oklahoma County
Second County to flip: Tulsa County

I think Cleveland (Norman) would flip before Tulsa.  Dems would be credible statewide if/when they are winning all 3 convincingly.

Extremely tall task...

Ehhh... all 3 are GOP outliers compared to other cities/college towns of similar size, even in the middle of the country.  I'm not saying they should end up voting like the Bay Area cities, but look at Omaha, Lincoln, Kansas City, Lawrence, and even Dallas by comparison.  There's a lot of room for Dem improvement in urban Oklahoma. 

Your perception of the average super duper enlightened White college grad cosmopolitan isn’t transferable to every area.  There will always be a LOT of affluent, cosmopolitan Republicans, especially in a place like Oklahoma.

[I’m not Stu]

Could Drew Edmondson win Oklahoma, Cleveland, and Tulsa counties in the gubernatorial race, especially if Mick Cornett loses the GOP nomination?

[cvparty]

First county to flip: Oklahoma County
Second County to flip: Tulsa County

I think Cleveland (Norman) would flip before Tulsa.  Dems would be credible statewide if/when they are winning all 3 convincingly.

Extremely tall task...

Ehhh... all 3 are GOP outliers compared to other cities/college towns of similar size, even in the middle of the country.  I'm not saying they should end up voting like the Bay Area cities, but look at Omaha, Lincoln, Kansas City, Lawrence, and even Dallas by comparison.  There's a lot of room for Dem improvement in urban Oklahoma.  

Your perception of the average super duper enlightened White college grad cosmopolitan isn’t transferable to every area.  There will always be a LOT of affluent, cosmopolitan Republicans, especially in a place like Oklahoma.

college-educated republicans are the new hampshire to your mt treasurer ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

[RINO Tom]

First county to flip: Oklahoma County
Second County to flip: Tulsa County

I think Cleveland (Norman) would flip before Tulsa.  Dems would be credible statewide if/when they are winning all 3 convincingly.

Extremely tall task...

Ehhh... all 3 are GOP outliers compared to other cities/college towns of similar size, even in the middle of the country.  I'm not saying they should end up voting like the Bay Area cities, but look at Omaha, Lincoln, Kansas City, Lawrence, and even Dallas by comparison.  There's a lot of room for Dem improvement in urban Oklahoma.  

Your perception of the average super duper enlightened White college grad cosmopolitan isn’t transferable to every area.  There will always be a LOT of affluent, cosmopolitan Republicans, especially in a place like Oklahoma.

college-educated republicans are the new hampshire to your mt treasurer ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

EDIT: For real, though, my only interest in this topic is checking hyperbole at the door.  Everyone knows White college graduates have been drifting toward the Democrats for a long time, and this trend was very much accelerated with the Clinton-Trump matchup.  It's also entirely possible these trends continue to intensify, I don't deny that.  However, at least part of that trend is Millennials being the most college-educated generation in history and also strongly Democratic; they will continue to be a larger and larger share of the "White college grad" population every single year, and that will inevitably affect how that "group" votes, at least a little.  However, it seems that posters here prefer to talk about "White college grads" as a static group that is the same e very two/four years, because that more easily paints the picture of a bunch of smart, educated, worldly people who are simply so noble that they can't stomach how dumb and racist the GOP is and have seen the light and become Democrats, LOL.  Sure, some of those people exist, but it's not the whole story.  Your average wealthy, affluent White college grad who voted for Bush in 2004 is still voting Republican.  I also caution anyone to project trends much further out than 2020 (an election where I do project we will see a continuation of the 2016 trends, coupled with a reversion to 2012 numbers with "WWC" voters, resulting in a resounding Trump defeat).

[Skill and Chance]

Because a party pushing high tariffs and trade restrictions is clearly acting to further the economic interests of wealthier-than-average people in commodities producing states?

[RINO Tom]

Because a party pushing high tariffs and trade restrictions is clearly acting to further the economic interests of wealthier-than-average people in commodities producing states?

As if that’s the defining issue of the GOP, especially in the long run?  Color me skeptical.  Also, have you glanced at the alternative party?  I know you fancy future Democrats as Tories of sorts, but if anything they’re going in the OPPOSITE direction and fast.

[Sumner 1868]

Because a party pushing high tariffs and trade restrictions is clearly acting to further the economic interests of wealthier-than-average people in commodities producing states?

As if that’s the defining issue of the GOP, especially in the long run?  Color me skeptical.  Also, have you glanced at the alternative party?  I know you fancy future Democrats as Tories of sorts, but if anything they’re going in the OPPOSITE direction and fast.

Not really. Both Republicans Democrats are clearly trying to recreate Gilded Age-style politics where both parties are for corporate interests and elections are mostly roll calls for identity groups. I mean just look at the kind of candidates the DNC backs.

[Del Tachi]

Oklahoma is currently the most competitive county in the state (Trump won it by 10 points in 2016 with 7% going to Johnson), but I think that Tulsa will actually be more likely to flip because its younger and more educated than OKC.

[RINO Tom]

First county to flip: Oklahoma County
Second County to flip: Tulsa County

I think Cleveland (Norman) would flip before Tulsa.  Dems would be credible statewide if/when they are winning all 3 convincingly.

Extremely tall task...

Ehhh... all 3 are GOP outliers compared to other cities/college towns of similar size, even in the middle of the country.  I'm not saying they should end up voting like the Bay Area cities, but look at Omaha, Lincoln, Kansas City, Lawrence, and even Dallas by comparison.  There's a lot of room for Dem improvement in urban Oklahoma.  

Your perception of the average super duper enlightened White college grad cosmopolitan isn’t transferable to every area.  There will always be a LOT of affluent, cosmopolitan Republicans, especially in a place like Oklahoma.

college-educated republicans are the new hampshire to your mt treasurer ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

“College-educated Republicans” is a misnomer because if they are voting Republican even still after having a college degree, then they’ve clearly lacked in picking up on critical thinking skills

LOL, not bad, gotta say.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

First county to flip: Oklahoma County
Second County to flip: Tulsa County

Those were Ford's strongest counties in 1976 in OK. How times change, Jimmy Carter won a majority of counties in the state but lost it.

[I’m not Stu]

Oklahoma and Tulsa counties are now more Democratic than the state as a whole. The counties Jimmy Carter won are far more GOP now. Oklahoma and Tulsa counties significantly trended Democratic from 2012 to 2016. Jimmy Carter won Cimarron, which is now the most Republican county.

[Nyssus]

Oklahoma is the most likely.

[I’m not Stu]

If Oklahoma County flips in 2020, does that indicate a national Democratic landslide victory against Trump?