MN-08: Joe Radinovich vs. Pete Stauber

[Jeppe]

17% Joe Radinovich
16% Michelle Lee
9% Jason Metsa
6% Kirsten Kennedy

https://www.scribd.com/document/381044538/MN08-Primary-Poll-Memo-Joe-for-Minnesota

I don’t really know why people were cheering when Phifer dropped out, it made it a lot easier for Lee to win because now she’s the only anti-mining progressive remaining in the race, and she’s a well-known, popular figure in Duluth.

[OneJ]

I mean Lee isn’t guaranteed to get ahead of Radinovich though.

[Jeppe]

I mean Lee isn’t guaranteed to get ahead of Radinovich though.

She probably is currently. Internal polls usually way overestimate a candidate’s support (Stacey Evans released a poll showing her down by 8 points a week before the primary, she lost by 50). It won’t be that extreme, but Radinovich is really hurt by splitting the pro-mining, moderate vote with both Metsa and Kennedy. Radinovich would beat Lee easily one-on-one, but the large amount of candidates running is hurting Radinovich and benefiting Lee.

Phifer winning the endorsement would probably have been better for Radinovich in the long-run. Metsa and Kennedy would’ve dropped out because they pledged to do so if an endorsement was made, while Lee still would’ve ran regardless, leaving Radinovich as the only pro-mining candidate against 2 progressive anti-mining candidates. But I guess politicians suck at politics.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This poll is obviously trash, but I have a hunch that actual office holders with fundraising and GOTV networks and connections to the local machine are going to have an easier time than some local news anchor.

[Jeppe]

This poll is obviously trash, but I have a hunch that actual office holders with fundraising and GOTV networks and connections to the local machine are going to have an easier time than some local news anchor.

Why would somebody do better than in their own internal poll?

[henster]

So is Michelle Lee electable? Given how women candidates have performed I wouldn't count her out in the primary.

[Jeppe]

So is Michelle Lee electable? Given how women candidates have performed I wouldn't count her out in the primary.

She's probably the weakest general election candidate. Her fundraising is non-existent and she's very progressive. However, she's a long-time news anchor in Duluth and she's the only one running against the PolyMet Mine, a contentious issue in the area. There are lots of environmentalists in this district, it was the only district where Rebecca Otto beat Walz in the previous statewide poll.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This will be one of the few gop pickups

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This poll is obviously trash, but I have a hunch that actual office holders with fundraising and GOTV networks and connections to the local machine are going to have an easier time than some local news anchor.

Why would somebody do better than in their own internal poll?

Any number of reasons, it wouldn’t be the first time tbh.

[OneJ]

This poll is obviously trash, but I have a hunch that actual office holders with fundraising and GOTV networks and connections to the local machine are going to have an easier time than some local news anchor.

Why would somebody do better than in their own internal poll?

Usually, the purpose of an internal poll is to create a particular narrative for a particular race, especially if posted publically. It's not impossible for a candidate that the internal is done for to perform better in a poll that's not an internal.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This poll is obviously trash, but I have a hunch that actual office holders with fundraising and GOTV networks and connections to the local machine are going to have an easier time than some local news anchor.

Why would somebody do better than in their own internal poll?

The reason why I'm throwing this poll straight in the trash is less due to it being an internal and more due to that it literally has 62% undecided.

[Bman409]

any updates on this one?

[Zaybay]

TBH, Im not worried about Lee's "progressive values" making this seat R cause shes "unelectable", because thats dumb, especially since the previous incumbent was just as progressive.

No, Im worried about what will actually matter, her mining stance, and her fundraising.

This is a mining district, and going against what many do as a livelihood is highly risky, almost as risky as Manchin saying he hates coal. Money is also something we need in this race and she doesnt have it.

Then again, she does have some things working in her favor. Her name Rec is rather high, as she is a famous news anchor in the area. The statewide election is likely to create a large D wave for her, along with the actual D wave. The R candidate is not the greatest, as well, and the seat is still rather D downballot.

If she wins, Ill put this as tilt-D, but she could easily win this. I still remember when people were putting Balter at likely R because she was considered a weak candidate, and Newman made the race DOA.

Thats the Zaybay analysis!

[Jeppe]

Leah Phifer exiting the race was a big blow to Radinovich. All it did was unite the environmentalist vote behind Lee, who already enjoyed intrinsic advantages as a well-known journalist in Duluth. Radinovich goes into the Tuesday primary as a favorite, but with Kennedy & Metsa drawing away pro-mining votes away from him, Lee could easily end up winning. After all, nobody in this race is really raising serious dough.

[Minnesota Mike]

any updates on this one?

Most local prognosticators seem the think Radinovich is ahead. I believe he has raised the most money and also had some PAC support.

[Bman409]

Thank you

[Atlas Force]

I don’t really know why people were cheering when Phifer dropped out, it made it a lot easier for Lee to win because now she’s the only anti-mining progressive remaining in the race, and she’s a well-known, popular figure in Duluth.

She probably is currently. Internal polls usually way overestimate a candidate’s support (Stacey Evans released a poll showing her down by 8 points a week before the primary, she lost by 50). It won’t be that extreme, but Radinovich is really hurt by splitting the pro-mining, moderate vote with both Metsa and Kennedy. Radinovich would beat Lee easily one-on-one, but the large amount of candidates running is hurting Radinovich and benefiting Lee.

Phifer winning the endorsement would probably have been better for Radinovich in the long-run. Metsa and Kennedy would’ve dropped out because they pledged to do so if an endorsement was made, while Lee still would’ve ran regardless, leaving Radinovich as the only pro-mining candidate against 2 progressive anti-mining candidates. But I guess politicians suck at politics.

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lol

[IceSpear]

How could extrapolating from a poll with 60% undecided possibly go awry?

[wesmoorenerd]

Radinovich is one of my favorite candidates of the cycle. I'm incredibly glad he won and I sure as hell hopes he holds the seat.

[smoltchanov]

Radinovich is one of my favorite candidates of the cycle. I'm incredibly glad he won and I sure as hell hopes he holds the seat.

He is a very good candidate, for sure. But this time republicans have one of the potentially strongest candidates too. So, most likely, it will be rather close.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We definitely dodged a bullet here, yeah.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We definitely dodged a bullet here, yeah.

[Jeppe]

Jason Metsa underperformed badly, he barely finished ahead of Kirsten Kennedy, the woman who raised less than $10,000 and had no name recognition. That's the end of a political career right there.

[😥]

This will be one of the few (2-4) GOP pickups

[wesmoorenerd]

Jason Metsa underperformed badly, he barely finished ahead of Kirsten Kennedy, the woman who raised less than $10,000 and had no name recognition. That's the end of a political career right there.

Radinovich and Metsa pretty much had the same base (Metsa was a tad more pro-mining, but still), and given how well Radinovich did, it's unsurprising that Metsa had few votes.