CA Primary Night!!

[Coastal Elitist]

Was Cox's performance stronger than expected?

At the expense of Allen, sure. But the combined R vote was less than expected I think, given Republicans’ high ballot return rate

Where did you see that Republicans had a high ballot return rate? I didn't see that at all.

[Bojack Horseman]

Ultraconservative Steve Poizner is currently in first place in the Insurance Commissioner race. He changed to an independent to run for a second, non-consecutive term. I wonder if not having the party label may result in an R pickup.

[Coastal Elitist]

Ultraconservative Steve Poizner is currently in first place in the Insurance Commissioner race. He changed to an independent to run for a second, non-consecutive term. I wonder if not having the party label may result in an R pickup.

Yeah he's moderate and the only one that's qualified for the position. He believes that the position should be non-partisan.

[libertpaulian]

Democrats are set to gain AD-76. Rs currently locked out.


Tasha Boerner Horvath
(Party Preference: DEM)
17,017   
25.2%
Elizabeth Warren
(Party Preference: DEM)
17,347   
25.7%
Philip "Phil" Graham
(Party Preference: REP)
14,271   
21.1%
Thomas E. Krouse
(Party Preference: REP)
5,404   
8.0%
Maureen "Mo" Muir
(Party Preference: REP)
5,895   
8.7%
Amanda Rigby
(Party Preference: REP)
3,776   
5.6%
Jerome Stocks
(Party Preference: REP)
3,330   
4.9%
Brian Wimmer
(Party Preference: REP)
551   
0.8%

...

[Bojack Horseman]

Ultraconservative Steve Poizner is currently in first place in the Insurance Commissioner race. He changed to an independent to run for a second, non-consecutive term. I wonder if not having the party label may result in an R pickup.

He's not even close to ultraconservative lol. He's really moderate.

This is the Steve Poizner I knew of: https://youtube.com/watch?v=X8P8vW0PNgk

[Coastal Elitist]

Ultraconservative Steve Poizner is currently in first place in the Insurance Commissioner race. He changed to an independent to run for a second, non-consecutive term. I wonder if not having the party label may result in an R pickup.

He's not even close to ultraconservative lol. He's really moderate.

This is the Steve Poizner I knew of: https://youtube.com/watch?v=X8P8vW0PNgk

He apologized for that. He admitted that he was trying to win right wing votes for the primary. He's also received endorsements from the San Francisco Chronicle, East Bay Times, San Jose Mercury News

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Was Cox's performance stronger than expected?

Not really

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Obama campaigned for Vilarigosa, instead of Newsom.  He wasn't LA mayor. He was the mayor of SF,  where he legalized SSM.

Outside of endorsing Feinstein, he didn't get involved in the CA primaries. All the Villaraigosa ads featuring Obama were of quotes from 2008-2012

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I'm honestly shocked that Renteria broke 1%. I had her at 0.75% and I don't think anyone else on the prediction page had her listed separately from "others."

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Newsom had a sex scandal on him. That's why Obama ended up endorsing Vilarigosa. Obama,  Harris will campaign for Newsom and he will come out on top.  The race is competitive and Cox shouldn't be underestimated.

LOL, you realize that Cox and Allen got about 36% all together of the vote, while all Dems combined ad up to 59%? And turnout in November will be even higher, what is supposed to benefit Dems. Newsom should crack 60%.

As of now dems are actually above 61 and the the GOP is slightly above 37.

[Maxwell]

Ultraconservative Steve Poizner is currently in first place in the Insurance Commissioner race. He changed to an independent to run for a second, non-consecutive term. I wonder if not having the party label may result in an R pickup.

He's not even close to ultraconservative lol. He's really moderate.

he only got 41% of the vote. He'll be the best performing "conservative" on the ballot and he'll probably still lose by 9 or 10.

[Maxwell]

Ultraconservative Steve Poizner is currently in first place in the Insurance Commissioner race. He changed to an independent to run for a second, non-consecutive term. I wonder if not having the party label may result in an R pickup.

He's not even close to ultraconservative lol. He's really moderate.

he only got 41% of the vote. He'll be the best performing "conservative" on the ballot and he'll probably still lose by 9 or 10.

He outpreformed republicans all across the state though. He is the only other republican besides Arnold to have won statewide in California since the year 2000
heres his map from 06

he's definetly demonstrated his ability to win in blue wave years I wouldn't count him out just yet

lol he ran against Cruz Bustamante, who has a unique record of blowing almost every race he's ever run, and California has become a lot more Democratic since 2006 (fun fact, Democrats gained more seats in 2012 than they did in 2008, which was a much better year for Democrats nationally, and while the rest of the nation got swamped in 2014, Democrats GAINED a seat in California)

And he out-performed every single Republican on the ballot to get... 41% as the only center right candidate and the combined Democratic vote still ended up beating him by double digits. Poizner might close that gap some but I doubt he's going to even get within single digits.

If he had received 45-46% of the vote yesterday i would've paid attention.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cox will not win. Are we being serious right now? It's in my name, I'm as pessimistic as they come, but come on, people!

[Politician]

Cox will not win. Are we being serious right now? It's in my name, I'm as pessimistic as they come, but come on, people!

[Politician]

Ultraconservative Steve Poizner is currently in first place in the Insurance Commissioner race. He changed to an independent to run for a second, non-consecutive term. I wonder if not having the party label may result in an R pickup.

He's not even close to ultraconservative lol. He's really moderate.

he only got 41% of the vote. He'll be the best performing "conservative" on the ballot and he'll probably still lose by 9 or 10.

He outpreformed republicans all across the state though. He is the only other republican besides Arnold to have won statewide in California since the year 2000
heres his map from 06

he's definetly demonstrated his ability to win in blue wave years I wouldn't count him out just yet

lol he ran against Cruz Bustamante, who has a unique record of blowing almost every race he's ever run, and California has become a lot more Democratic since 2006 (fun fact, Democrats gained more seats in 2012 than they did in 2008, which was a much better year for Democrats nationally, and while the rest of the nation got swamped in 2014, Democrats GAINED a seat in California)

And he out-performed every single Republican on the ballot to get... 41% as the only center right candidate and the combined Democratic vote still ended up beating him by double digits. Poizner might close that gap some but I doubt he's going to even get within single digits.

If he had received 45-46% of the vote yesterday i would've paid attention.

Before 2012 the districts in California were gerrymandered to favor incumbents.

[Oryxslayer]

Ultraconservative Steve Poizner is currently in first place in the Insurance Commissioner race. He changed to an independent to run for a second, non-consecutive term. I wonder if not having the party label may result in an R pickup.

He's not even close to ultraconservative lol. He's really moderate.

he only got 41% of the vote. He'll be the best performing "conservative" on the ballot and he'll probably still lose by 9 or 10.

He outpreformed republicans all across the state though. He is the only other republican besides Arnold to have won statewide in California since the year 2000
heres his map from 06

he's definetly demonstrated his ability to win in blue wave years I wouldn't count him out just yet

lol he ran against Cruz Bustamante, who has a unique record of blowing almost every race he's ever run, and California has become a lot more Democratic since 2006 (fun fact, Democrats gained more seats in 2012 than they did in 2008, which was a much better year for Democrats nationally, and while the rest of the nation got swamped in 2014, Democrats GAINED a seat in California)

And he out-performed every single Republican on the ballot to get... 41% as the only center right candidate and the combined Democratic vote still ended up beating him by double digits. Poizner might close that gap some but I doubt he's going to even get within single digits.

If he had received 45-46% of the vote yesterday i would've paid attention.

Before 2012 the districts in California were gerrymandered to favor incumbents.

Which kinda became a Pub-mander sometime around 2006 when California kept getting blue. Similar to how NJ has transitioned from a pub-mander to a dummymander. This is the main reason for some , but not all, of the dems house gains in CA in 2012.

[Coastal Elitist]

Cox will not win. Are we being serious right now? It's in my name, I'm as pessimistic as they come, but come on, people!

No one is saying he will. We're talking about the insurance commissioner race.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Most likely Cox vs Newsom County map for November as of June 6th, 2018

[Holmes]

Butte and probably Placer go D if Newsom is getting over two thirds of the vote. Del Norte probably not.

[Coastal Elitist]

Um no. Orange County is not going to Newsom. Brown didn't even win it. I doubt Newsom outperforms Clinton. Also San Bernadino and Riverside both have been more willing to vote for a Republican for Governor in past years.

[DrScholl]

The combined Democratic share of the vote in Orange County is far higher than it was in 2014 (same in Riverside and San Bernardino). Of course Brown was unopposed but it still is worth comparing the numbers. Newsom could sweep SoCal because Cox is not a great candidate even from a generic standpoint.

[Canis]

I predict OC will go to newsom but it will be real close like 51-49 close and riverside and sanbernadino will be close but ultimately go to Newsom just because of the climate in the country rn plus Betty Yee carried OC in the primary with the only other candidates being a republican and a Peace and Freedom candidate the peace and freedom vote will overwhelmingly break to Yee so Oc is likely to vote dem this year in most statewide races

[Sir Mohamed]

I predict OC will go to newsom but it will be real close like 51-49 close and riverside and sanbernadino will be close but ultimately go to Newsom just because of the climate in the country rn plus Betty Yee carried OC in the primary with the only other candidates being a republican and a Peace and Freedom candidate the peace and freedom vote will overwhelmingly break to Yee so Oc is likely to vote dem this year in most statewide races

Orange County will go to Cox with about 53-47%, because he's a pretty good fit. I also did pretty well in the primary.

[Greedo punched first]

Does Feinstein or de Leon win OC in the runoff?

[Oryxslayer]

Um no. Orange County is not going to Newsom. Brown didn't even win it. I doubt Newsom outperforms Clinton. Also San Bernadino and Riverside both have been more willing to vote for a Republican for Governor in past years.

Dems and repa are basically tied in the primary vote right now - expect dems to pull ahead once the postals are tallied. Newsom is going to win and increasingly blue county.