2006 midterms under president Kerry

[Politician]

Changes:
All Republicans survive except Santorum. DeWine hangs on by the skin of his teeth.
Lamont defeats Lieberman in Connecticut.
Republicans unseat Menendez in New Jersey and pickup Maryland.

[dw93]

Republicans make gains, but 2006 under a Kerry administration is nothing like 2010 or 1994. Keep in mind, the Congressional GOP was embroiled in a lot of scandals unrelated to Bush and the Iraq war and those are likely to get at least some level of attention.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I think Republicans land a stronger candidate in Nebraska, and win, while DeWine still loses.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I think Republicans land a stronger candidate in Nebraska, and win, while DeWine still loses.

Yeah, I don't see Nelson holding on in a midterm under a Democratic President.

[NewYorkExpress]

Connecticut (remember, Lieberman is now Vice President): R Appointee (probably Chris Shays) 50%, Richard Blumenthal 47% (R Hold)

Florida: Katharine Harris 50%, Bill Nelson 48% (R Gain)

Maryland: Michael Steele 48%, Ben Cardin 47.99% (R Gain)

Minnesota: Mark Kennedy 50%, Amy Klobuchar 48% (R Gain)

Missouri: Jim Talent 55%, Jay Nixon OR Claire McCaskil 43% (R Hold)

Montana: Conrad Burns 46%, Brian Schweitzer 45% (R Hold)

Nebraska: Don Stenberg 57%, Ben Nelson 42% (R Gain)

New Jersey: Thomas Kean Jr. 48%, Bob Menendez 47.5% (R Gain)

New York: Hillary Clinton does not not run for re-election, instead running for Governor of New York.  Andrew Cuomo 55%, Rudy Giuliani 43% (D Hold)

North Dakota: John Hoeven 51%, Kent Conrad 48% (R Gain)

Ohio: Sherrod Brown 51%, Mike DeWine 47% (D Gain)

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey 50%, Rick Santorum 48% (D Gain)

Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee 60%, Sheldon Whitehouse 39% (R Hold)

Tennessee: Bob Corker 57%, Harold Ford 41% (R Hold)

Virginia: George Allen 55%, Jim Webb 44% (R Hold)

West Virginia: Shelly Moore Capito 50%, Robert Byrd 49% (R Gain)

Wisconsin: Paul Ryan 51%, Herb Kohl 46.7% (R Gain)

[MATTROSE94]

Connecticut (remember, Lieberman is now Vice President): R Appointee (probably Chris Shays) 50%, Richard Blumenthal 47% (R Hold)

Florida: Katharine Harris 50%, Bill Nelson 48% (R Gain)

Maryland: Michael Steele 48%, Ben Cardin 47.99% (R Gain)

Minnesota: Mark Kennedy 50%, Amy Klobuchar 48% (R Gain)

Missouri: Jim Talent 55%, Jay Nixon OR Claire McCaskil 43% (R Hold)

Montana: Conrad Burns 46%, Brian Schweitzer 45% (R Hold)

Nebraska: Don Stenberg 57%, Ben Nelson 42% (R Gain)

New Jersey: Thomas Kean Jr. 48%, Bob Menendez 47.5% (R Gain)

New York: Hillary Clinton does not not run for re-election, instead running for Governor of New York.  Andrew Cuomo 55%, Rudy Giuliani 43% (D Hold)

North Dakota: John Hoeven 51%, Kent Conrad 48% (R Gain)

Ohio: Sherrod Brown 51%, Mike DeWine 47% (D Gain)

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey 50%, Rick Santorum 48% (D Gain)

Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee 60%, Sheldon Whitehouse 39% (R Hold)

Tennessee: Bob Corker 57%, Harold Ford 41% (R Hold)

Virginia: George Allen 55%, Jim Webb 44% (R Hold)

West Virginia: Shelly Moore Capito 50%, Robert Byrd 49% (R Gain)

Wisconsin: Paul Ryan 51%, Herb Kohl 46.7% (R Gain)

Seems about right, though I have Rick Santorum eking out a very narrow victory.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is what I think would have happened a whole If Kerry was Narrowly Elected(He wins IA , NM and OH).

2004 Senate Election: Daschle wins

So Senate would be 54 Republicans 46 Democrats

2004 House Elections: Republicans 229 Democrats 206(Including Bernie Sanders)



2006 Midterm Elections:

Democrats Pick Up : PA, and OH

Republicans Pick Up: MD , NE , ND,

Senate Overall: Republicans 55 Democrats 45

House : Republicans 242 Democrats 193


2008 Election:

Romney/McCain 387 54.5%
Kerry/Edwards 151 44.5%

CA is won by Kerry by 2 points


2008 Senate :

Republicans Pickup : LA,  SD , MT, AK(Dems collapse in AK 4 years earlier)

Democrats Pickup : Nothing

Senate : 59 Republicans 41 Democrats

House: Republicans 270 Democrats 165


With an Incumbent up for election in 2008 the Democrats do worse than the Republicans did in OTL

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

This is what I think would have happened a whole If Kerry was Narrowly Elected(He wins IA , NM and OH).

2004 Senate Election: Daschle wins

So Senate would be 54 Republicans 46 Democrats

2004 House Elections: Republicans 229 Democrats 206(Including Bernie Sanders)



2006 Midterm Elections:

Democrats Pick Up : PA, and OH

Republicans Pick Up: MD , NE , ND,

Senate Overall: Republicans 55 Democrats 45

House : Republicans 242 Democrats 193


2008 Election:

Romney/McCain 387 54.5%
Kerry/Edwards 151 44.5%

CA is won by Kerry by 2 points


2008 Senate :

Republicans Pickup : LA,  SD , MT, AK(Dems collapse in AK 4 years earlier)

Democrats Pickup : Nothing

Senate : 59 Republicans 41 Democrats

House: Republicans 270 Democrats 165


With an Incumbent up for election in 2008 the Democrats do worse than the Republicans did in OTL

I think it was not too feasible for the GOP to pick up ND and NE at all; Conrad and Nelson were both incredibly popular individually.

Keep this in mind- just two years earlier, in a high-turnout election, Dorgan, who is arguably more liberal than Conrad, won in a ~68% landslide while Bush was simultaneously carrying the state with 63%. Pomeroy also held on with no issues. These elections were consistent with the way ND voted at the time. Conrad should have had no trouble under any situation, barring things like a dead girl or live boy.

NE also liked sending back incumbent Democrats, and again, Nelson was individually popular.

It would have taken massive polarization to knock these guys out, and I just don't see that happening with the way things were in the political times of 2006. Many of the problems that the House GOP had in 2006 were brought on by themselves. I could see the GOP losing seats because of those many problems, but would ultimately see their majority held afloat if they were under the conditions of a typical Democratic midterm.

[Politician]

This is what I think would have happened a whole If Kerry was Narrowly Elected(He wins IA , NM and OH).

2004 Senate Election: Daschle wins

So Senate would be 54 Republicans 46 Democrats

2004 House Elections: Republicans 229 Democrats 206(Including Bernie Sanders)



2006 Midterm Elections:

Democrats Pick Up : PA, and OH

Republicans Pick Up: MD , NE , ND,

Senate Overall: Republicans 55 Democrats 45

House : Republicans 242 Democrats 193


2008 Election:

Romney/McCain 387 54.5%
Kerry/Edwards 151 44.5%

CA is won by Kerry by 2 points


2008 Senate :

Republicans Pickup : LA,  SD , MT, AK(Dems collapse in AK 4 years earlier)

Democrats Pickup : Nothing

Senate : 59 Republicans 41 Democrats

House: Republicans 270 Democrats 165


With an Incumbent up for election in 2008 the Democrats do worse than the Republicans did in OTL

Republicans don't pickup Alaska if they already held it. Or do you mean Arkansas?

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is what I think would have happened a whole If Kerry was Narrowly Elected(He wins IA , NM and OH).

2004 Senate Election: Daschle wins

So Senate would be 54 Republicans 46 Democrats

2004 House Elections: Republicans 229 Democrats 206(Including Bernie Sanders)



2006 Midterm Elections:

Democrats Pick Up : PA, and OH

Republicans Pick Up: MD , NE , ND,

Senate Overall: Republicans 55 Democrats 45

House : Republicans 242 Democrats 193


2008 Election:

Romney/McCain 387 54.5%
Kerry/Edwards 151 44.5%

CA is won by Kerry by 2 points


2008 Senate :

Republicans Pickup : LA,  SD , MT, AK(Dems collapse in AK 4 years earlier)

Democrats Pickup : Nothing

Senate : 59 Republicans 41 Democrats

House: Republicans 270 Democrats 165


With an Incumbent up for election in 2008 the Democrats do worse than the Republicans did in OTL

Republicans don't pickup Alaska if they already held it. Or do you mean Arkansas?

I mean Arkansas

[Lechasseur]

Changes:
All Republicans survive except Santorum. DeWine hangs on by the skin of his teeth.
Lamont defeats Lieberman in Connecticut.
Republicans unseat Menendez in New Jersey and pickup Maryland.

This, but Brown might still win in Ohio.