Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[wxtransit]

What are the chances Horwath could eventually become the NDP's national leader?

Elle ne parle pas francais

She doesn't? Yeah no, she's not going to be leader.

[136or142]

Don't get me wrong - from a purely partisan point of view, the NDP did great - they went from a third party to official opposition, have 40 MPPs and a chance to prove themselves while the Liberals are decimated.  But, from an ABF point of view, they didn't do so well.  And really, as Kelly McParland (certainly no friend of the NDP) said in the National Post today, if they can't win against a Doug Ford and a wiped out Liberal party, when do they think they will take over?

After 4 years of proving themselves in opposition and during the same 4 years, of Doug Ford proving he can't govern.  (Of course, conservative propagandist hacks like McParland will do their best to convince everybody to disbelieve the evidence.)

I also wonder about Horwath's leadership in the sense that she's been the NDP leader for nearly 10 years.  There does tend to be a 'best before date' for leaders of about 10 years.  Horwath maybe though is a bit fresher than her actual years because people maybe didn't pay attention to her for her first several years as NDP leader.

[Jeppe]

Aside from Catherine Fife, there isn’t really a clear successor-in-waiting to Horwath now that Jagmeet Singh is in federal politics now.

[DabbingSanta]

Don't get me wrong - from a purely partisan point of view, the NDP did great - they went from a third party to official opposition, have 40 MPPs and a chance to prove themselves while the Liberals are decimated.  But, from an ABF point of view, they didn't do so well.  And really, as Kelly McParland (certainly no friend of the NDP) said in the National Post today, if they can't win against a Doug Ford and a wiped out Liberal party, when do they think they will take over?

After 4 years of proving themselves in opposition and during the same 4 years, of Doug Ford proving he can't govern.  (Of course, conservative propagandist hacks like McParland will do their best to convince everybody to disbelieve the evidence.)

You haven't even given him a chance yet. This sort of attitude is why people voted for him, honestly. Not like you give Trump or any other conservative a chance either.  Cue the rants about FPTP.

[ON Progressive]

A firm called One Persuasion did an exit poll of 5703 voters, and it is very interesting: http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/exit-poll-suggests-wynnes-early-concession-speech-may-have-saved-liberal-seats

Highlights (all numbers PC v NDP):
Men went 47-30 PC, women 38-33 NDP
Age: 18-24 went 53-31 NDP, 25-34 went 48-24 NDP. Meanwhile, 55-65 went PC 42-32 and 65+ 45-28 PC
Education: High school or less 51-31 PC, community college/trade school 45-33 PC, Bachelor’s 36-34 NDP, Graduates 37-32 NDP

These are a lot of the same trends happening throughout the Western world. Non-university voters going conservative, highly educated voters swinging more to the left. Huge age and gender gaps as well.

[adma]

One interesting thing to note in Durham Region that Whitby really didn't turn out to be that distinctive compared to Ajax and Pickering for NDP vote.  Since these suburbs are all pretty similar (except for Whitby being in the Oshawa CMA) I guess it isn't really surprising.

Is that observation on behalf of Whitby being underwhelming (which I disagree on), or Ajax/Pickering being surprising?

[136or142]

Don't get me wrong - from a purely partisan point of view, the NDP did great - they went from a third party to official opposition, have 40 MPPs and a chance to prove themselves while the Liberals are decimated.  But, from an ABF point of view, they didn't do so well.  And really, as Kelly McParland (certainly no friend of the NDP) said in the National Post today, if they can't win against a Doug Ford and a wiped out Liberal party, when do they think they will take over?

After 4 years of proving themselves in opposition and during the same 4 years, of Doug Ford proving he can't govern.  (Of course, conservative propagandist hacks like McParland will do their best to convince everybody to disbelieve the evidence.)

You haven't even given him a chance yet. This sort of attitude is why people voted for him, honestly. Not like you give Trump or any other conservative a chance either.  Cue the rants about FPTP.

Personally I'm tired of hearing this 'this is why people voted for him' crap.  
1.We who knew Trump would be a disaster were right and the idiots who voted for him were wrong.

2.I'm not even a New Democrat, but Ford especially was saying 'if the NDP win it would be a disaster' during the campaign, and the NDP hadn't even won yet.  

So, take your 'anti elitism' or whatever, and shove it.  I'm an educated person with, I think, a decent intelligence, and if using my God given brain to judge how things are very likely to turn out is a problem, then we have very big real problems.

[adma]

A bit odd, I think.  The worst region for the Green Party is the city of Toronto (though not by much.)

NDP/Lib absorbing all that energy; plus traditionally rotten results in ethnoburbia.

[adma]

Ottawa 8 ridings
Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, Nepean, Orleans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean

Total votes: 435,231
P.C: 147,814, 34.0%
NDP: 130,184, 29.9
Liberal: 131,491, 30.2
Green: 16,866, 3.9
Other 8,876

The NDP's best ever showing in Ottawa, probably, and still third place (and just one seat!) We will never elect a progressive mayor.

Was it actually better than 1990?

Question I have: how did 1990 compare to the Cassidy/Gigantes 70s?

[DC Al Fine]

What is it with you people and your bizarre hypotheticals? Horwath led the NDP to their best result in over 25 years. She's safe. Atlas would probably be speculating about kicking Diefenbaker out in 1957 too

[adma]

I expected Guelph to be won by the Greens, but not with nearly 50% of the vote, and the NDP in third place.

Schreiner was a double-barrelled Lib-NDP proxy; so what's so surprising, under the circumstance?  

[136or142]

What is it with you people and your bizarre hypotheticals? Horwath led the NDP to their best result in over 25 years. She's safe. Atlas would probably be speculating about kicking Diefenbaker out in 1957 too

Diefenbaker was paranoid, they should have kicked him out in 1957!

[adma]

In the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock riding, the Greens received 20% of the vote.

Parry Sound-Muskoka.

[136or142]

I expected Guelph to be won by the Greens, but not with nearly 50% of the vote, and the NDP in third place.

Schreiner was a double-barrelled Lib-NDP proxy; so what's so surprising, under the circumstance?  

This was mentioned back in B.C in 2001, when there was a hope that the NDP would win 3 seats and the Green Party 1, with official party status at 4 seats.

Is there any way the Greens and the Liberals could team up in the legislature to give themselves official party status?

[136or142]

In the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock riding, the Greens received 20% of the vote.

Parry Sound-Muskoka.

Sorry, my mistake.

[adma]

There are polling division maps, apparently (only select ridings): https://globalnews.ca/news/4260146/ontario-election-poll-level-results-2/

Can't find the data anywhere.

And the new polling divisions are ghastly.

Truly.

I said it before after the Whitby-Oshawa byelection (when this new system made its debut): this is an absolute, positive, unmitigated ***disaster*** for those of us into polling-division electoral geography.  Essentially, they destroyed the point of it all--whatever *anyone* used these maps for, in order to get an in-depth political feel for a place (or as a guide to future campaigning)--at this point, they might as well discard polling divisions altogether and go completely internet-balloting, or something.  Put it all out of its mercy.

And this is something you *can't* blame the Ford Tories on.  (Nor can you blame it for the Ford Tories being elected, as campaigns have earlier polling division results as bases to work from.)

[adma]

Is there any way the Greens and the Liberals could team up in the legislature to give themselves official party status?

Who knows.  Let's remember that Elizabeth May has had a history of setting up federal Green-Lib alliances; and that Schreiner essentially serves as a "Guelph Liberal" proxy.

Also IIRC in the NDP's own 2003-4 interval as a 7-seat party, populist Tory Bill Murdoch offered (abortively) to caucus with the Dippers to give *them* OPS.

[King of Kensington]

Is that observation on behalf of Whitby being underwhelming (which I disagree on), or Ajax/Pickering being surprising?

I was under the impression that they were competitive in Whitby (though Whitby still leaned more to the Tories) but not at all competititive in Ajax/Pickering.

[136or142]

Any possibility these Federal Liberal M.Ps might run for the provincial leadership:
1.Mark Holland
2.Francesco Sorbara
3.Yasmin Ratansi
4.Adam Vaughan
5.Navdeep Bains
6.Kate Young
7.Bob Nault
8.Kim Rudd
9.Shaun Chen
10.John Oliver

[Hatman 🍁]

Have I put any ridings in obviously wrong regions?  I didn't really know what to do with Haldimand-Norfolk and Huron-Bruce.

Mind breaking them down by the EKOS regions?

Here:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/


Regions broken down on a map:

I'll get around to it if nobody does it before me.  That said, I don't really like their regional breakdowns (too many regions and I think the ridings around Lake Simcoe should be recognized as a separate region - Cottage Country.)  In addition to that region being the strongest Conservative, it's also the strongest Green.  I think 'Cottage Country' is clearly its own region (it could also be called Central Ontario.)

In the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock riding, the Greens received 20% of the vote.

I also think the idea of Nipissing being in 'the North' is really stretching things.


A couple of other points
1.In the last election, the Liberals received, I think, 38.6% of the vote (close to that anyway,) in this election, the Liberals received over 30% of the vote in just 18 of the 124 ridings.

2.The NDP lost 9 ridings by less than 5% of the vote, but they won 7 ridings (including Oshawa!) by less than 5% of the vote.  I don't know if that's a wash or not in close ridings, but if you're going to look at the narrow losses, I think you should also take into account the narrow wins.

It's odd that the NDP barely held on to Oshawa when they improved so much in Whitby (not sure about Durham.)  The Whitby NDP candidate was nominated a long time before the election, I don't know if that played a role or not in the NDP doing relatively well there.

Hey, I spent a lot of time thinking about these regions. And the idea that Nipissing being in the north 'as stretching things' is borderline offensive to this son of a North Bayer.

And 'cottage country' generally only refers to Parry Sound-Muskoka, and usually just the Muskoka party (though there are cottages in Parry Sound of course, including my family's!)

[136or142]

Have I put any ridings in obviously wrong regions?  I didn't really know what to do with Haldimand-Norfolk and Huron-Bruce.

Mind breaking them down by the EKOS regions?

Here:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/


Regions broken down on a map:

I'll get around to it if nobody does it before me.  That said, I don't really like their regional breakdowns (too many regions and I think the ridings around Lake Simcoe should be recognized as a separate region - Cottage Country.)  In addition to that region being the strongest Conservative, it's also the strongest Green.  I think 'Cottage Country' is clearly its own region (it could also be called Central Ontario.)

In the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock riding, the Greens received 20% of the vote.

I also think the idea of Nipissing being in 'the North' is really stretching things.


A couple of other points
1.In the last election, the Liberals received, I think, 38.6% of the vote (close to that anyway,) in this election, the Liberals received over 30% of the vote in just 18 of the 124 ridings.

2.The NDP lost 9 ridings by less than 5% of the vote, but they won 7 ridings (including Oshawa!) by less than 5% of the vote.  I don't know if that's a wash or not in close ridings, but if you're going to look at the narrow losses, I think you should also take into account the narrow wins.

It's odd that the NDP barely held on to Oshawa when they improved so much in Whitby (not sure about Durham.)  The Whitby NDP candidate was nominated a long time before the election, I don't know if that played a role or not in the NDP doing relatively well there.

Hey, I spent a lot of time thinking about these regions. And the idea that Nipissing being in the north 'as stretching things' is borderline offensive to this son of a North Bayer.

And 'cottage country' generally only refers to Parry Sound-Muskoka, and usually just the Muskoka party (though there are cottages in Parry Sound of course, including my family's!)

Sorry!

1.That Nipisses me off!  

2.https://cottagelife.com/outdoors/top-misconceptions-about-ontario-cottage-country/

If you’ve got a cottage in Simcoe County—the area that includes Barrie and Collingwood—or pretty much anywhere close to Georgian Bay, you can ski just about every day of the winter and never run out of hills. Ice fishing, snowmobiling, skating…we could go on and on.



I'll redo the regional results when all the polls are in.  There are still 4 polls outstanding last time I checked.

[Krago]

Ontario’s startling election in eight before-and-after maps

[Oryxslayer]

Ontario’s startling election in eight before-and-after maps

Why Ontario's new merged polls suck in 8 maps - there I fixed it.

[Bacon King]

Yeah Horwath for now is fairly safe. The people getting the boot are her campaign staff who sent Horwath and NDP resources to reach seats rather then shoring up the NDP-leaning ones in the south. The only reason she would get the boot is if the provincial NDP decides that they need someone with a more 'moderate' image at the helm to pull in the left-liberals in the 905. If that happens though, it would be several years in the future, not right post-election.

Alright at this point I'm convinced you have literally no idea what you're talking about. This post demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of these election results, the campaign preceding it, Canadian political dynamics, and Ontario political geography entirely. I've noticed this pattern for a while now and I honestly mean this in the least offensive way possible, but please stop writing posts with an authoritative tone in international election threads where you don't actually know anything about the topic at hand. It's embarrassing for you, it's a distraction from other conversations in-thread, and it openly spreads misinformation to anyone who doesn't actually know the facts at hand.

Your post is wrong on so many levels but rather than explain line by line why you're wrong, I want to take this opportunity address the "disease" rather than this "symptom", so to speak -- your approach to participating in international election discussions. You're the Drake of International Elections and it's not working any better for you than it is for him

[ON Progressive]

Ontario’s startling election in eight before-and-after maps

Why Ontario's new merged polls suck in 8 maps - there I fixed it.

Yeah, these new maps look awful.