Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[mileslunn]

Anybody know why Oliver Paipoonge and Neebing just outside Thunder Bay usually go PC despite the area being very weak for them.  Yes it was partly vote splits, but I've noticed even federally in 2011, this area sometimes goes conservative so anything unique that would cause it to lean that way?

[mileslunn]

Another interesting tidbit, if you took only the election day polls and excluded the advanced polls, Liberals would have won 9 seats thus maintaining official party status (Eglinton-Lawrence and Thunder Bay-Atikokan) so perhaps Wynne's concession helped and maybe had she done it while advanced polls were still open the OLP would have retained it's official party status.  NDP still would have gotten 40 seats as they would have won Ottawa West-Nepean while PCs would have won only 74 seats losing Eglinton-Lawrence and Ottawa West-Nepean but holding everything else.  Usually they do better in advanced polls but seems largely a wash since although their supporters are more likely to show up earlier, they weren't polling as well during advanced polls as they were on election day.

[mileslunn]

I can confirm PCs did win Wellington County, it was 34.8% to 31.1% for the Greens.  Lets remember 40% of the population of Wellington county lives outside Guelph and the PCs got 55% here.  Funny enough is in Ottawa, Wellington County, Waterloo Regional Municipality, Middlesex County, and Essex County, the PCs in each case got between 34-35%, all that varied was how other parties went in each of those are majority urban but with a sizeable rural portion.  In Frontenac County, they got only 29% while in Hamilton only 31% so a bit lower there.

[mileslunn]

Also Liberals did win one county, it was Thunder Bay District although to be fair it was more local candidates than widespread support for the Liberals in Thunder Bay.

[mileslunn]

If completed the results for Southern Ontario by municipality and counties provincewide.  For municipalities, PCs best one was Brudenell, Lyndoch & Raglan where they got 79.5%, while for NDP best was Armstrong 79.1% (although in Northern Ontario).  NDP's best in Southern Ontario was Windsor at 55.2%.

[mileslunn]

Here is the Toronto results.  I might take me a few days to make maps for Ontario as a whole, but if you want I can just copy and paste the data in.  Might take a few posts however.

East York

NDP 44.4%
Liberal 26%
PC 24%

Etobicoke

PC 43.4%
Liberal26.7%
NDP 25.4%

North York

PC 41.5%
Liberal 29.1%
NDP 25.5%

Scarborough

PC 39.9%
NDP 31.5%
Liberal 24.1%

Toronto

NDP 49.2%
Liberal 25.1%
PC 20.3%

York

NDP 38.7%
PC 30.1%
Liberal 27.2%

[DL]

Something is messed up in Scarborough

[Holmes]

Something is messed up in Scarborough

Voter fraud.

(Also Toronto and York)

[mileslunn]

Fixed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Awaiting the rest of the numbers

[King of Kensington]

Excellent work.

I take it you're having to make a few choicess in Toronto and the Yorks given that I don't think these polls respect the old municipal boundaries.

[King of Kensington]

East York voting to the left of York is a reversal of the Harris era pattern.  It does have a larger middle class population (and affluent Leaside/Bennington represents a pretty large chunk) while York is more working class and "ethnic" (plus Ford did really well there municipally). 

[mileslunn]

Excellent work.

I take it you're having to make a few choicess in Toronto and the Yorks given that I don't think these polls respect the old municipal boundaries.

I had to do that even with present municipal boundaries, especially in rural areas so I made a judgement call in where the majority of votes came from.  These won't be 100% exact for that reason never mind those who vote advanced especially in rural areas might come from multiple municipalities and those who vote by special ballot could come from anywhere (which is why I excluded those, but assume the percentage would be roughly the same anyways or at least close) so this is more to get an idea of what the map would look like.  I am quite confident the numbers I have or within 0.3% of the actual numbers.  Etobicoke and Scarborough however have ridings correspond exactly to old boundaries so those are 100% exact.

[mileslunn]

East York voting to the left of York is a reversal of the Harris era pattern.  It does have a larger middle class population (and affluent Leaside/Bennington represents a pretty large chunk) while York is more working class and "ethnic" (plus Ford did really well there municipally). 

True enough, in fact I think Doug Ford in 2014 would have won York outright municipally.  I also believe in 2010, George Smitherman would have won East York.  North York I believe is the only one that flipped from Rob Ford 2010 to John Tory 2014.  Rob Ford pretty much won all the suburbs in 2010, while in 2014 the more affluent ones went over to John Tory, but the more working class ones stayed with Doug Ford.

[mileslunn]

Here is the data by county for Ontario.  Most as expected but some interesting ones.  Both the PCs and NDP got over 60% in three and two respectively.  PCs only got under 30% in one county in Southern Ontario, but multiple in Northern Ontario.  Otherwise urban Southern Ontario and Northern Ontario mostly orange, while blue in rural and suburban Southern Ontario.  One red district however.  Below I copy and pasted from the spreadsheet so if anyone beats me to this in maps great.  Maps by both winner and percentage vote for PCs, NDP and Liberals would be interesting.


                  
Algoma District                  
                  
      PC 0.344187   NDP 0.486947   Liberal 0.090096   Green 0.031801   
                  
Brant County                  
                  
      PC 0.42812   NDP 0.40304   Liberal 0.09352   Green 0.04737   
                  
Bruce County                  
                  
      PC 0.514577   NDP 0.260297   Liberal 0.173574   Green 0.034367   
                  
Chatham-Kent                  
                  
      PC 0.520168   NDP 0.362356   Liberal 0.069313   Green 0.034980   
                  
Cochrane District                  
                  
      PC 0.287650   NDP 0.566222   Liberal 0.101073   Green 0.018090   
                  
Dufferin County      
      PC 0.52412   NDP 0.18919   Liberal 0.107949   Green 0.163039   
                  
Durham Regional Municipality                  
                  
      PC 0.439608   NDP 0.347217   Liberal 0.163334   Green 0.035855   
                  
Elgin County      
      PC 0.56746   NDP 0.31463   Liberal 0.06704   Green 0.03954   
                  
Essex County                  
                  
      PC 0.35046   NDP 0.51213   Liberal 0.090314   Green 0.037540   
                  
Frontenac County                  
                  
      PC 0.291224   NDP 0.387878   Liberal 0.246311   Green 0.063369   
                  
Greater Sudbury                  
                  
      PC 0.22630   NDP 0.55629   Liberal 0.15672   Green 0.03670   
                  
Grey County                  
                  
      PC 0.530432   NDP 0.242315   Liberal 0.130539   Green 0.068290   
                  
Haldimand-Norfolk      
      PC 0.57101   NDP 0.268990   Liberal 0.092029   Green 0.041409   
                  
Haliburton County      
      PC 0.54191   NDP 0.297929   Liberal 0.093453   Green 0.044656   
                  
Halton Regional Municipality                  
                  
      PC 0.44246   NDP 0.23164   Liberal 0.27027   Green 0.04430   
                  
Hamilton      
      PC 0.30529   NDP 0.48375   Liberal 0.139345   Green 0.046868   
                  
Hastings County                  
                  
      PC 0.520022   NDP 0.3095554   Liberal 0.117173   Green 0.037613   
                  
Huron County      
      PC 0.546525   NDP 0.3085828   Liberal 0.094873   Green 0.038037   
                  
Kawartha Lakes      
      PC 0.568806   NDP 0.2582893   Liberal 0.102468   Green 0.045376   
                  
Kenora District                  
                  
      PC 0.42894   NDP 0.39978   Liberal 0.12273   Green 0.04405   
                  
Lambton County                  
                  
   PC 0.529067   NDP 0.372646   Liberal 0.045443   Green 0.035322   
                  
Lanark County      
      PC 0.56704   NDP 0.27747   Liberal 0.09185   Green 0.04426   
                  
Leeds and Grenville United Counties      
      PC 0.61286   NDP 0.19755   Liberal 0.13368   Green 0.04795   
                  
Lennox and Addington County      
      PC 0.404891   NDP 0.3745136   Liberal 0.152524   Green 0.052274   
                  
Manitoulin District      
      PC 0.201044932    NDP 0.617345873   Liberal 0.090909091   Green 0.053291536   
                  
Middlesex County                  
                  
      PC 0.348637   NDP 0.488124   Liberal 0.106416   Green 0.041505   
                  
Muskoka District      
      PC 0.458443   NDP 0.206609   Liberal 0.086143   Green 0.238139   
                  
Niagara Regional Municipality      
      PC 0.393892633    NDP 0.409716662   Liberal 0.140319974   Green 0.04057182   
                  
Nipissing District                  
                  
      PC 0.444405   NDP 0.405866   Liberal 0.089655   Green 0.031488   
                  
Northumberland County      
      PC 0.439849   NDP 0.235872   Liberal 0.264395   Green 0.046218   
                  
Ottawa                  
                  
      PC 0.341274   NDP 0.297742   Liberal 0.301509   Green 0.038639   
                  
Oxford County      
      PC 0.553064   NDP 0.306800   Liberal 0.068541   Green 0.045287   
                  
Parry Sound District                  
                  
      PC 0.541967   NDP 0.246923   Liberal 0.077356   Green 0.116989   
                  
Peel Regional Municipality                  
                  
      PC 0.406253   NDP 0.303053   Liberal 0.232278   Green 0.032433   
                  
Perth County      
      PC 0.481988   NDP 0.334911   Liberal 0.110150   Green 0.057125   
                  
Peterborough County                  
                  
      PC 0.394998   NDP 0.330518   Liberal 0.230898   Green 0.035366   
                  
Prescott and Russell United Counties      
      PC 0.392471   NDP 0.224241   Liberal 0.327050   Green 0.029366   
                  
Prince Edward Division      
      PC 0.475089244     NDP 0.316079466   Liberal 0.164907652   Green 0.031662269   
                  
Rainy River District                  
                  
      PC 0.386506   NDP 0.416689   Liberal 0.159110   Green 0.033324   
                  
Renfrew County      
      PC 0.686910   NDP 0.170909   Liberal 0.097278   Green 0.031235   
                  
Simcoe County                  
                  
      PC 0.50210   NDP 0.26256   Liberal 0.14583   Green 0.07825   
                  
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry United Counties                  
                  
      PC 0.60545   NDP 0.21628   Liberal 0.13194   Green 0.03642   
                  
Sudbury District                  
                  
      PC 0.248554913    PC 0.579146287   Liberal 0.108937305   Green 0.026678524   
                  
Thunder Bay District                  
                  
      PC 0.206724   NDP 0.369795   Liberal 0.374870   Green 0.028077   
                  
Timiskaming District      
      PC 0.20890   NDP 0.67609   Liberal 0.05045   Green 0.01915   
                  
Toronto      
      PC 0.32727339   NDP 0.364719881   Liberal 0.261363191   Green 0.030391196   
                  
Waterloo Regional Municipality                  
                  
      PC 0.34626   NDP 0.40743   Liberal 0.16792   Green 0.06337   
                  
Wellington County                  
                  
      PC 0.34832   NDP 0.22547   Liberal 0.10210   Green 0.31062   
                  
York Regional Municipality                  
                  
      PC 0.53748262   NDP 0.194223526   Liberal 0.225755239   Green 0.029807619   

[King of Kensington]

So PC vote by county/census division ranked:

Renfrew  68.7%
Leeds and Grenville  61.3%
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry  60.5%
Haldimand-Norfolk  57.1%
Kawartha Lakes  56.9%
Elgin  56.7%
Lanark  56.7%
Oxford  55.3%
Huron  54.7%
York  53.7%
Haliburton  54.2%
Parry Sound  54.2%
Grey  53%
Lambton  52.9%
Dufferin  52.4%
Chatham-Kent  52%
Hastings  52%
Bruce  51.5%
Simcoe  50.2%
Perth  48.2%
Prince Edward  47.5%
Muskoka  45.8%
Nipissing  44.4%
Halton  44.2%
Durham  44%
Northumberland  44%
Kenora  42.9%
Brant  42.8%
Lennox and Addington  40.5%
Peterborough  39.5%
Prescott and Russell  39.2%
Niagara  39.4%
Rainy River  38.7%
Essex  35%
Middlesex  34.9%
Wellington  34.8%
Waterloo  34.6%
Algoma  34.4%
Ottawa  34.1%
Toronto  32.7%
Hamilton  30.5%
Frontenac  29.1%
Cochrane  28.8%
Greater Sudbury  22.6%
Timiskaming  20.9%
Thunder Bay  20.7%
Manitoulin  20.1%

[mileslunn]

Some interesting patterns.  The three the PCs cracked the 60% mark are all rural Eastern Ontario and as discussed earlier for some reason it seems rural Eastern Ontario is where they are able to run up the margins the most, more so than rural Southwestern Ontario.

While it was the suburbs that gave the PCs their majority, they generally only got a plurality of votes there usually in the 40s in most suburban areas, it was in the rural Southern Ontario where they generally got a majority of votes, over 50%.  York Region being the notable exception where PCs got over 50%.  Also Simcoe County is the only other county where the largest urban centre in the county exceeds 100,000 people and the PCs topped the 50% mark.  In the 40s, mostly suburban ones and some mixed rural/urban counties.

The 30s seemed to be mostly counties that had one of the larger cities although except Toronto, all of them did extend out to the countryside and some included a sizeable rural portion but not enough to offset the clobbering the PCs got in the urban portions.  Toronto likewise so the Tories clobbered in the central areas, but did better in the suburbs as in the map shown above.

Asides from Frontenac County, all the PC ones under 30% were in Northern Ontario were despite its rural nature, they performed quite poorly in most areas although did well in a few areas.  Frontenac County also unlike other counties is quite sparsely populated in much of the rural part so that is a big reason the PCs got under 30% and the more populated rural areas tend to be close to Kingston where the NDP actually made it quite competitive with the PCs.  The areas outside of commuting distance with Kingston don't have a whole lot of people which contrasts with say Middlesex County, Essex County, or Wellington County where you have lots of small towns in the surrounding countryside so have slightly more influence.  Ottawa and Hamilton you have all three and generally PCs as shown earlier were worst in old city, mixed in the suburbs, while won in the rural portions.

[mileslunn]

So PC vote by county/census division ranked:

Renfrew  68.7%
Leeds and Grenville  61.3%
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry  60.5%
Haldimand-Norfolk  57.1%
Kawartha Lakes  56.9%
Elgin  56.7%
Lanark  56.7%
Oxford  55.3%
Huron  54.7%
York  53.7%
Haliburton  54.2%
Parry Sound  54.2%
Grey  53%
Lambton  52.9%
Dufferin  52.4%
Chatham-Kent  52%
Bruce  51.5%
Simcoe  50.2%
Prince Edward  47.5%
Muskoka  45.8%
Nipissing  44.4%
Halton  44.2%
Durham  44%
Northumberland  44%
Kenora  42.9%
Brant  42.8%
Lennox and Addington  40.5%
Peterborough  39.5%
Prescott and Russell  39.2%
Niagara  39.4%
Rainy River  38.7%
Essex  35%
Middlesex  34.9%
Wellington  34.8%
Waterloo  34.6%
Algoma  34.4%
Ottawa  34.1%
Toronto  32.7%
Hamilton  30.5%
Frontenac  29.1%
Cochrane  28.8%
Greater Sudbury  22.6%
Timiskaming  20.9%
Thunder Bay  20.7%
Manitoulin  20.1%

Missing Perth County, should go in between Simcoe and Prince Edward.  Also missing Hastings County which PCs got over 50% in.

[King of Kensington]

The exurban/rural areas around Kingston might be the most "culturally liberal" of the kind in the province.  A bit of a Madison, Wisconsin or Burlington, Vermont type dynamic.

[King of Kensington]

Missing Perth County, should go in between Simcoe and Prince Edward.  Also missing Hastings County which PCs got over 50% in.

Fixed.

[mileslunn]

The exurban/rural areas around Kingston might be the most "culturally liberal" of the kind in the province.  A bit of a Madison, Wisconsin or Burlington, Vermont type dynamic.

True enough although ironically the part in Leeds and Grenville united counties went almost 50 percent PC, but certainly true in Frontenac County and Lennox and Addington County. Victoria on the west coast also has a similar dynamic with the surrounding rural areas and exurbs. Lots of ex-hippie retirees as well as much of the agriculture is your local community based farms not large commercial ones and a strong community of artisans too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Map

[mileslunn]

Map

Almost seems like you have U shape on population density in respect to NDP support. They are strongest in least densely populated (Northern Ontario) and most densely (Urban centres in Southern Ontario) while PC's more mid population density areas. Otherwise rural areas with lots of small towns and suburbs vs. urban core and sparsely populated areas. In most places outside Canada you can map conservative support as increasing as population density decrases and progressive the other way, but here it appears only to a point and starts going the other way once population density drops. True in the UK, the Tories do poorly in the least densely populated constituencies but they are Scotland where Tories generally do bad overall. In US, Australia, England, Wales, and New Zealand support for right wing parties strongly negatively correlated with population density.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Dems can do well in resource areas like NDP does in the north. Look at the Iron range in Minnesota.

[mileslunn]

The Dems can do well in resource areas like NDP does in the north. Look at the Iron range in Minnesota.

True enough, although there was strong swing towards Trump in 2016 in the Iron Ridge, but the Democrats did still win there.  Norway, Sweden, and Finland are other examples as the northern parts of those three countries tend to be where the Social Democratic Party is strongest so perhaps its more conservative parties are strongest in rural agriculture areas which in most of the US and much of Europe that is what all your rural areas. 

Ironically in BC though, Interior at least nowadays is pretty strongly centre-right, only the West Kootenays (you have a lot of American draft dodgers from the 60s and the Dhukobors) and the Northwest (large First Nation population, BC Liberals generally dominate most of the non-First Nation's polls while federally the NDP wins elsewhere but it seems that is one part of the province you have BC Liberal provincially NDP federally voters so guessing those are personal Nathan Cullen votes not NDP ones) are the two exceptions, but areas like the Cariboo or Prince George very much tilt to the right.  Saskatchewan and Manitoba also have the NDP doing really well in the North, but again those areas have large First Nation's population.