Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[adma]

My poll (Ottawa South, poll #1): OLP 609, NDP 500, PC 315

Not bad. The NDP finished third in every corresponding poll in 2014. In 2011, the NDP finished 2nd in my poll and the next apartment over (which went NDP in the 2011 federal election). It seems quite likely the NDP won my apartment complex, but we'll never know

Thanks for lamenting the Great Polling Division Dumb-Down (TM)

[adma]

He voted NDP thinking that would be the correct tactical vote in this riding,

Where did he get that idea?

Well I know I was egging him on to vote NDP but he said he would decide which anti-Ford vote had the best chance for himself, so I figured for sure he would vote Liberal. I was actually quite surprised to learn he had voted NDP. Not all people are political obsessives like us, so when he saw the NDP pull neck-and-neck with the PCs province-wide, it would not have been unreasonable for him to think that the NDP was the logical tactical vote, not taking into account the nuances of his individual riding. He also until the last redistribution was in Mississauga-Erindale, which is not quite the same profile as Mississauga-Lakeshore and the NDP did come in 2nd in its primary successor ridings. Goes to show the perils of tactical voting and how it can go wrong

No, I know. I am quite aware people don't know how to vote tactically. Especially in this election. I was genuinely curious where he might have thought that. I saw some sites that said the NDP was the tactical vote in Ottawa South, so I was wondering if he saw it on some site somewhere.

Well, there were sites which recommended a *universal* NDP-ward tactical vote, even in Oakville or Don Valley West situations  And given what actually happened, I can't say the tactical NDP option in Ottawa South turned out *that* misguided in the end--particularly when we consider the riding's long been a bastion of Blue Liberalism, whether under Manley or McGuinty.

As far as "not knowing how to vote tactically", it swings both ways: I caught one person prepared to vote Liberal in Kitchener South-Hespeler because they were ahead of the NDP in 2014 and thereby the "strategic choice".  (By that logic, the NDP should have topped up around 25 seats or so.)

[adma]

Ottawa South really is a safe Liberal seat isn't it?  It wasn't even close.  It's long been fool's gold for the Tories, maybe it's fool's gold for the NDP too.

It's only "not close" because the opposition was more or less equally split.

[Boston Bread]

Looking at a few ridings, the non-tiny polls are now about 1000 votes each, whereas in the 2015 federal election polls were about 200 votes each. Not good!

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To be honest, I used this argument for the NDP in the 2015 federal election while canvassing in Barrie-Innisfil. And I was being dishonest - if I had to sincerely argue for not strategic voting in 2015, I'd say that Barrie-Innisfil is safe conservative and hence strategic voting is unlikely to work.

[Hatman 🍁]

The riding's name irks me. The part of the riding that is in Nipissing District (South Algonquin and a chunk of Algonquin Park) makes up 1% of the population of the riding, and is very much isolated from the rest of Nipissing District.

Having Pembroke in there is fine, I guess since it's not technically part of Renfrew County, but I'd drop it too.

I don't think people were ever that preoccupied over whether Pembroke was part of Renfrew County or not--"independent cities" and "separated towns" never having carried the mapping-geographic value in Ontario that they do in, say, Virginia.  (As affirmed by the Canadian census.)

This is becoming a trend with riding names now. Look at Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston (why not just Lanark-Frontenac?), Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (why not Bruce-Grey?), Brantford-Brant (why not just Brant?) and Elgin-Middlesex-London (why not just Elgin-Middlesex?).

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa South really is a safe Liberal seat isn't it?  It wasn't even close.  It's long been fool's gold for the Tories, maybe it's fool's gold for the NDP too.

Let's wait a few cycles before we make that accusation. 27% was the best showing for the NDP in Ottawa South since 1975, back when the riding contained the Glebe and Old Ottawa South, two very left-liberal neighbourhoods.  Typically the NDP gets 9-14%, no matter the candidate quality. 27% proves the NDP can be competitive, and Ottawa South may be a riding the party needs to win to get a majority (never thought I'd say that!).

 

[adma]

The riding's name irks me. The part of the riding that is in Nipissing District (South Algonquin and a chunk of Algonquin Park) makes up 1% of the population of the riding, and is very much isolated from the rest of Nipissing District.

Having Pembroke in there is fine, I guess since it's not technically part of Renfrew County, but I'd drop it too.

I don't think people were ever that preoccupied over whether Pembroke was part of Renfrew County or not--"independent cities" and "separated towns" never having carried the mapping-geographic value in Ontario that they do in, say, Virginia.  (As affirmed by the Canadian census.)

This is becoming a trend with riding names now. Look at Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston (why not just Lanark-Frontenac?), Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (why not Bruce-Grey?), Brantford-Brant (why not just Brant?) and Elgin-Middlesex-London (why not just Elgin-Middlesex?).

Though that's more "having a piece of the pie" than a direct reflection of "independent" status.  (And it doesn't explain the ungainliest piece-of-the-pie riding name of all: Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes.)


Then there's the former Chatham-Kent-Essex, where the former Kent county actually became Chatham-Kent upon becoming a unitary entity.  (That city-county combined label concept was pioneered with Ottawa-Carleton and Hamilton-Wentworth regions--until each became "megacities", of course.  And in the states, there's the likes of Nashville-Davidson, Lexington-Fayette, Miami-Dade, etc...)

[adma]

Looking at a few ridings, the non-tiny polls are now about 1000 votes each, whereas in the 2015 federal election polls were about 200 votes each. Not good!

Never mind 1000 votes each; a lot of them are polls where the *winner* gets 1000 votes.  And not even with a majority of votes in said poll.

And what I find is that in something like the Mississauga ridings, the maps are uniform boring blue but for condo/senior's poll pinpricks.  Yet looking at how close some of those "boring blue" mega-polls are, I can only imagine how colourful the maps would be were the polls of traditional size...

[Hatman 🍁]

The riding's name irks me. The part of the riding that is in Nipissing District (South Algonquin and a chunk of Algonquin Park) makes up 1% of the population of the riding, and is very much isolated from the rest of Nipissing District.

Having Pembroke in there is fine, I guess since it's not technically part of Renfrew County, but I'd drop it too.

I don't think people were ever that preoccupied over whether Pembroke was part of Renfrew County or not--"independent cities" and "separated towns" never having carried the mapping-geographic value in Ontario that they do in, say, Virginia.  (As affirmed by the Canadian census.)

This is becoming a trend with riding names now. Look at Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston (why not just Lanark-Frontenac?), Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (why not Bruce-Grey?), Brantford-Brant (why not just Brant?) and Elgin-Middlesex-London (why not just Elgin-Middlesex?).

Though that's more "having a piece of the pie" than a direct reflection of "independent" status.  (And it doesn't explain the ungainliest piece-of-the-pie riding name of all: Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes.)

There is 'no piece of the pie' for the 1000 Islands or Rideau Lakes; both are tourist regions already located in that county. The county does have three independent cities though; but Leeds-Grenville-Brockville-Gananoque-Prescott is only slightly better than the current riding name.

[DL]

If the thousand islands are in "Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes" what islands are in "Kingston and the islands"?

[Hatman 🍁]

If the thousand islands are in "Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes" what islands are in "Kingston and the islands"?

I believe the 1000 Islands begin east of Kingston, and don't consist of the Township of Frontenac Islands which is a different archipelago. ETA: Should've done more research, apparently they are also part of the 1000 Islands. But when I think of the 1000 Islands, I think more of Gananoque than Kingston

Interestingly, less than 2% of the riding lives in Frontenac Islands, but I guess the riding name has a bit of romanticism to it.

[Oryxslayer]

If the thousand islands are in "Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes" what islands are in "Kingston and the islands"?

Who even was behind the naming of this seat? It is the first seat ever to have its name be appended when I made the hex map, and I have made hex maps for about 8 Westminster-style elections from around the globe. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rather unfortunately Canadian MPs often get to re-name their constituencies using private members bills. Which leads to the absurdity of Town-Town-Village-Every-Fycking-Molehill-Between-Here-And-There. Or, even worse, Town-Village-Hamlet-Tourist Name For Pretty Countryside No On Lives In.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah it was Gord Brown, who just tragically died. I felt bad that when he died, his decision to re-name his riding was the only thing I could remember him for.

[DC Al Fine]

Rather unfortunately Canadian MPs often get to re-name their constituencies using private members bills. Which leads to the absurdity of Town-Town-Village-Every-Fycking-Molehill-Between-Here-And-There. Or, even worse, Town-Village-Hamlet-Tourist Name For Pretty Countryside No On Lives In.

I'd be happy if my province could change a riding name to something that isn't _______ f ucking Nova

[Tintrlvr]

Rather unfortunately Canadian MPs often get to re-name their constituencies using private members bills. Which leads to the absurdity of Town-Town-Village-Every-Fycking-Molehill-Between-Here-And-There. Or, even worse, Town-Village-Hamlet-Tourist Name For Pretty Countryside No On Lives In.

I'd be happy if my province could change a riding name to something that isn't _______ f ucking Nova

New riding name change: Halifax > Halifax Nova.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rather unfortunately Canadian MPs often get to re-name their constituencies using private members bills. Which leads to the absurdity of Town-Town-Village-Every-Fycking-Molehill-Between-Here-And-There. Or, even worse, Town-Village-Hamlet-Tourist Name For Pretty Countryside No On Lives In.

I'd be happy if my province could change a riding name to something that isn't _______ f ucking Nova

Bossa Nova

[adma]

If the thousand islands are in "Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes" what islands are in "Kingston and the islands"?

Wolfe and Howe. (I think Amherst might also have once been in there, until ferry-connection geographic logic assigned it to whatever Lennox & Addington-inclusive riding instead.)

[adma]

There is 'no piece of the pie' for the 1000 Islands or Rideau Lakes; both are tourist regions already located in that county. The county does have three independent cities though; but Leeds-Grenville-Brockville-Gananoque-Prescott is only slightly better than the current riding name.

Again, I'm puzzled by this emphasis upon "independent cities" (or separated towns)--as far as I'm concerned, political "independence" has little or nothing to do with the inclusion of such names within riding labels.

But it seems to me that the trend among younger Ontarian political geographers is to overemphasize said independence as if Ontario's freaking Virginia or something--though maybe that in part reflects the fact that it's increasingly *only* of relevance to, well, those who've entered the field of political geography.  Meanwhile, a certain county/district-based common geography has lapsed from mass consciousness; and my feeling is that said overly "Virginian" spin on things Ontarian reflects such a lapse.  That is, outside of or preceding their academic/professional spheres, younger beholders never developed the old county/district/region-based mental map of Ontario that once might have been taken for granted--our own equivalent of the classic Rand McNally depiction of the United States--but in Ontario's (as opposed to Virginia's) case, where the "independent" burgs are nonetheless treated as geographic parts of their respective counties; a definition the Canadian census agrees upon, as did municipal directories before everything went on-line.


I don't know what you have to say about this, Hatman, being a generation younger than me.  But I grew up in the presence of maps like this; and the colours left an indelible impression...
http://www.thekingshighway.ca/MAPS/Hwy48map-1967.jpg

[Hatman 🍁]

There is 'no piece of the pie' for the 1000 Islands or Rideau Lakes; both are tourist regions already located in that county. The county does have three independent cities though; but Leeds-Grenville-Brockville-Gananoque-Prescott is only slightly better than the current riding name.

Again, I'm puzzled by this emphasis upon "independent cities" (or separated towns)--as far as I'm concerned, political "independence" has little or nothing to do with the inclusion of such names within riding labels.

But it seems to me that the trend among younger Ontarian political geographers is to overemphasize said independence as if Ontario's freaking Virginia or something--though maybe that in part reflects the fact that it's increasingly *only* of relevance to, well, those who've entered the field of political geography.  Meanwhile, a certain county/district-based common geography has lapsed from mass consciousness; and my feeling is that said overly "Virginian" spin on things Ontarian reflects such a lapse.  That is, outside of or preceding their academic/professional spheres, younger beholders never developed the old county/district/region-based mental map of Ontario that once might have been taken for granted--our own equivalent of the classic Rand McNally depiction of the United States--but in Ontario's (as opposed to Virginia's) case, where the "independent" burgs are nonetheless treated as geographic parts of their respective counties; a definition the Canadian census agrees upon, as did municipal directories before everything went on-line.


I don't know what you have to say about this, Hatman, being a generation younger than me.  But I grew up in the presence of maps like this; and the colours left an indelible impression...
http://www.thekingshighway.ca/MAPS/Hwy48map-1967.jpg

I grew up with maps like that too, specifically my Funk & Wagnalls Atlas of the World, which still had the pre 1980s Quebec counties in them.  I wouldn't blame the 'younger generation'; the issue is technocrats who aren't familiar with historical political geography enough to give a damn.

[DC Al Fine]

Rather unfortunately Canadian MPs often get to re-name their constituencies using private members bills. Which leads to the absurdity of Town-Town-Village-Every-Fycking-Molehill-Between-Here-And-There. Or, even worse, Town-Village-Hamlet-Tourist Name For Pretty Countryside No On Lives In.

I'd be happy if my province could change a riding name to something that isn't _______ f ucking Nova

New riding name change: Halifax > Halifax Nova.

Lol

[adma]

There is 'no piece of the pie' for the 1000 Islands or Rideau Lakes; both are tourist regions already located in that county. The county does have three independent cities though; but Leeds-Grenville-Brockville-Gananoque-Prescott is only slightly better than the current riding name.

Again, I'm puzzled by this emphasis upon "independent cities" (or separated towns)--as far as I'm concerned, political "independence" has little or nothing to do with the inclusion of such names within riding labels.

But it seems to me that the trend among younger Ontarian political geographers is to overemphasize said independence as if Ontario's freaking Virginia or something--though maybe that in part reflects the fact that it's increasingly *only* of relevance to, well, those who've entered the field of political geography.  Meanwhile, a certain county/district-based common geography has lapsed from mass consciousness; and my feeling is that said overly "Virginian" spin on things Ontarian reflects such a lapse.  That is, outside of or preceding their academic/professional spheres, younger beholders never developed the old county/district/region-based mental map of Ontario that once might have been taken for granted--our own equivalent of the classic Rand McNally depiction of the United States--but in Ontario's (as opposed to Virginia's) case, where the "independent" burgs are nonetheless treated as geographic parts of their respective counties; a definition the Canadian census agrees upon, as did municipal directories before everything went on-line.


I don't know what you have to say about this, Hatman, being a generation younger than me.  But I grew up in the presence of maps like this; and the colours left an indelible impression...
http://www.thekingshighway.ca/MAPS/Hwy48map-1967.jpg

I grew up with maps like that too, specifically my Funk & Wagnalls Atlas of the World, which still had the pre 1980s Quebec counties in them.  I wouldn't blame the 'younger generation'; the issue is technocrats who aren't familiar with historical political geography enough to give a damn.

Though I don't know how much that'd potentially be putting the shoe on the other foot, i.e. blaming *past* regimes (cartographic and otherwise) for not depicting Ontario Virginia-style "as is proper".  But in a deeper sense--i.e. technocratic neglect leading to common geographical neglect (i.e. the powers that be not caring less how present and future generations of Ontarians "perceive their land")--there may be a point here; which may feed into deeper issues of geographic literacy (or lack thereof) in the GPS era.

And, common-pattern-wise, related to it all might be how there hasn't been any real effort to instill "mass consciousness" of Quebec's post-1980s census divisions.  (Certainly not to the degree where they'd be depicted in official road maps and the like.)

[Hatman 🍁]

There is 'no piece of the pie' for the 1000 Islands or Rideau Lakes; both are tourist regions already located in that county. The county does have three independent cities though; but Leeds-Grenville-Brockville-Gananoque-Prescott is only slightly better than the current riding name.

Again, I'm puzzled by this emphasis upon "independent cities" (or separated towns)--as far as I'm concerned, political "independence" has little or nothing to do with the inclusion of such names within riding labels.

But it seems to me that the trend among younger Ontarian political geographers is to overemphasize said independence as if Ontario's freaking Virginia or something--though maybe that in part reflects the fact that it's increasingly *only* of relevance to, well, those who've entered the field of political geography.  Meanwhile, a certain county/district-based common geography has lapsed from mass consciousness; and my feeling is that said overly "Virginian" spin on things Ontarian reflects such a lapse.  That is, outside of or preceding their academic/professional spheres, younger beholders never developed the old county/district/region-based mental map of Ontario that once might have been taken for granted--our own equivalent of the classic Rand McNally depiction of the United States--but in Ontario's (as opposed to Virginia's) case, where the "independent" burgs are nonetheless treated as geographic parts of their respective counties; a definition the Canadian census agrees upon, as did municipal directories before everything went on-line.


I don't know what you have to say about this, Hatman, being a generation younger than me.  But I grew up in the presence of maps like this; and the colours left an indelible impression...
http://www.thekingshighway.ca/MAPS/Hwy48map-1967.jpg

I grew up with maps like that too, specifically my Funk & Wagnalls Atlas of the World, which still had the pre 1980s Quebec counties in them.  I wouldn't blame the 'younger generation'; the issue is technocrats who aren't familiar with historical political geography enough to give a damn.

Though I don't know how much that'd potentially be putting the shoe on the other foot, i.e. blaming *past* regimes (cartographic and otherwise) for not depicting Ontario Virginia-style "as is proper".  But in a deeper sense--i.e. technocratic neglect leading to common geographical neglect (i.e. the powers that be not caring less how present and future generations of Ontarians "perceive their land")--there may be a point here; which may feed into deeper issues of geographic literacy (or lack thereof) in the GPS era.

And, common-pattern-wise, related to it all might be how there hasn't been any real effort to instill "mass consciousness" of Quebec's post-1980s census divisions.  (Certainly not to the degree where they'd be depicted in official road maps and the like.)

I believe MapArt has used the RCMs on their road maps for quite some time.

[lilTommy]

2018 election up - http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/ - no poll results yet, but really those poll maps were horrible so.
If you want to see, here ya go - https://globalnews.ca/news/4257183/ontario-election-results-2018/

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa/National Capital Region

PCs  147,814  33.9%
Liberals  131,491  30.2%
NDP  130,184  29.9%