Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Dundas voting to the left of Stoney Creek seems to be evidence of the Ford effect.

Might also be because the would-be NDP vote in Dundas is usually suppressed for being in a riding the NDP doesn't usually fare well in due to being a Liberal-PC bellwether. 

[King of Kensington]

TO really doesn't have a "Dundas" equivalent.  It's almost like an Ontario version of a New England town that later got absorbed into a larger city.

[DL]

TO really doesn't have a "Dundas" equivalent.  It's almost like an Ontario version of a New England town that later got absorbed into a larger city.

Swansea?

[adma]

Dundas voting to the left of Stoney Creek seems to be evidence of the Ford effect.

Might also be because the would-be NDP vote in Dundas is usually suppressed for being in a riding the NDP doesn't usually fare well in due to being a Liberal-PC bellwether. 

I'd agree there--and the reverse can be said about Stoney Creek's NDP vote having been hitherto elevated through being bunched together with blue-collar east Hamilton...

[lilTommy]

For Hamilton pre-amalgamation, NDP won Hamilton, Dundas, and Stoney Creek while PCs won Glanbrook, Flamborough, and Ancaster so seems the Niagara Enscarpment was the dividing point.  Below are the results by former Hamilton municipality

Ancaster

PC 42.7%
NDP 31.7%
Liberal 20.3%

Dundas

NDP 48.6%
PC 24.5%
Liberal 20.6%


Flamborough

PC 46.5%
NDP 26.2%
Liberal 19.8%

Glanbrook

PC 42.3%
NDP 39.3%
Liberal 12.3%

Hamilton (old city)

NDP 57.9%
PC 22.2%
Liberal 12%

Stoney Creek

NDP 44.9%
PC 34.7%
Liberal 13.3%


Haven't done Ottawa and Toronto, but was able to do Etobicoke and Scarborough as ridings correspond with previous boundaries.  Will give East York, York, North York, and Toronto later once completed.

Etobicoke

PC 43.4%
Liberal26.7%
NDP 25.4%

Scarborough

PC39.9%
NDP 31.5%
Liberal 24.1%

Etobicoke is interesting for the NDP/OLP split; The OLP won 18% in Etobicoke North, and the NDP won 18% in Etobicoke Centre, which in itself is interesting. But the OLP polled stronger in Etobicoke Centre at 34% while the NDP only managed 25% in Etobicoke North.

So the OLP won (going N->S in Etobicoke) 18%, 34%, 24% while the NDP won 25%, 18%, 32%.

In Scarborough, with the NDP at 31% we would expect more then 1 seat for the NDP?, so here we can see a direct correlation to the higher OLP vote depressing the NDP. If about 4000 OLP voters had gone NDP, (in the right ridings, Centre {3000} and Rouge Park{1000}) the NDP would have won both.

[adma]

In Scarborough, with the NDP at 31% we would expect more then 1 seat for the NDP?, so here we can see a direct correlation to the higher OLP vote depressing the NDP. If about 4000 OLP voters had gone NDP, (in the right ridings, Centre {3000} and Rouge Park{1000}) the NDP would have won both.

And don't forget Guildwood, where it would have taken a 2000 vote swing.

[King of Kensington]

TO really doesn't have a "Dundas" equivalent.  It's almost like an Ontario version of a New England town that later got absorbed into a larger city.

Swansea?

Dundas actually pre-dates Hamilton though, Swansea is an early 20th century suburb of Toronto.

[mileslunn]

I am currently crunching the numbers by municipality and county and have made it to the M's so hope by next weekend to have it done.  A few minor surprises, most as expected, but a few major ones, especially when comparing to recent federal results.  Below are a few of the surprises

1.  NDP wins Goderich by almost 10% so a bit surprised why when everywhere else went PC, why this would go NDP?

2.  PC's narrowly win Pelee Island and I thought as an island retreat it would be more left leaning

3.  Lennox and Addington county is surprisingly close with it being 40% PC to 37% NDP (It was the Hastings County portion that tipped things in the PC's favour) and in fact Loyalist went NDP by almost 10% so guessing a spillover from Kingston perhaps?  South Frontenac also goes NDP too, but Leeds & Thousand Islands goes solidly PC (although seems the major towns are outside of the commuting distance)

4.  NDP wins election day polls of Perth, Ontario and only narrowly loses due to advanced polls which is surprising as everywhere else in Lanark County went PC by a landslide.


Minor surprises


1.  PC's get over 50% in St. Thomas as usually in larger towns they only get in the 40s, but perhaps job losses meant people wanted to go for whom was least like the Liberals.


2.  PC's win Leamington in a landslide getting in high 50s.  Perhaps could this also be due to heavy job losses and thus desire to go for whom is least like the government?


3.  PCs top 70% in Malahide (Does this community have a big Dutch Reformed as that would make some logic, mind you Harper never topped 70% not even in 2011).


4.  PC's win Belleville by about 10 points (Looks like the fact it extends out to the countryside is a big reason NDP didn't do as well as I thought they would here).


5.  Liberals win Frontenac Islands in a tight three way race.  Liberals take the western part, NDP the middle, while PCs take Howe Island.


Interesting ones.


1.  PCs outside York region may only be getting in the 40s in the suburbs, but are getting over 50% in most of the exurbs as they topped 50% in Scugog, Caledon, Whitchurch-Stouffville, and King (Probably also did in Uxbridge, East Gwilimbury, Georgina, and Halton Hills but haven't got there yet).

2.  PCs only got in the 40s in the Kitchener exurbs (Wilmot, Wellesley, Woolwich, and Wilmot).


3.  In Glengarry-Prescott-Russell appears Liberals won in the heavily Francophone areas so looks like Liberals held Francophone vote in Southern Ontario (might have gone NDP in Northern Ontario), but PCs won here by running up the margins amongst Anglophones.


4.  Barrie was only 44% PC to 31% NDP so if still its own riding would be somewhat competitive, but got north of 50% in the municipalities beyond the city.  Interestingly enough there was no difference in 2011 federally so wonder how much of that is the Patrick Brown effect as I think he was quite popular in Barrie so he might have helped them federally in 2011 while his ouster hurt the PCs in 2018.

5.  Liberals got 29% in Saugeen Shores which outside predominately Francophone small towns and rural areas was their best showing although I am guessing the Bruce Nuclear plant nearby was a big reason, otherwise many too educated to vote PC, too rich to vote NDP.

Looking at the ethnic groups, it appears, Chinese, Italians, and Jewish community swung heavily to the PCs and the PCs likely topped the 50% mark with those three.  Asides from Russians looks like PCs got in the 40s amongst Eastern Europeans such as Polish while amongst Portuguese and Greeks, NDP might have won them but urban core which went massively NDP, vs. suburbs which leaned PC.  Amongst Filipinos, Vietnamese, and Koreans, looks like PCs won those, but only plurality unlike Chinese.  Probably also got over 50% amongst Dutch, but that is to be expected considering they are mostly in small town rural Southern Ontario, while amongst Germans not as high due to poor showing in Kitchener.  Amongst South Asians, that would be interesting as looks like the PCs narrowly won the Tamil vote, but NDP won Sikh vote.  Amongst Blacks and Muslims, doubt PCs won them, but suspect they did surprisingly well.  Ford likely got over 25% of the Black vote which is unheard of in much of the Western world for a right wing party.  Likewise probably also got over 25% of the Muslim vote or at least 20% which is big as Harper only got 12% in 2011 and 2% in 2015 (That is what happens when you demonize a group).


Any idea why the Jewish and Italian swung so heavily towards the PCs.  Not surprised about the Chinese, but it does seem the Italian vote which historically goes Liberal, but has become more competitive swung quite massively to the PCs.  Jewish was a surprise since although the Tories federally win big amongst them due to pro-Israel stance, surprised its spilled over provincially.

Another interesting fact is Harper won Kitchener and London in 2011, but those went NDP by double digits so appears Ford was a really tough sell in those cities and in fact it looks like he did even worse than Harper did in 2015.  Ottawa less surprising as it appears 2014 provincially and 2015 federally, it swung quite heavily against the Tories and they haven't fully recovered.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Perth has a bit of an aging hippy population. Anecdotally, I do know a couple of New Democrats that have retired there.

[lilTommy]

I wonder if the 3 month old strike at the Salt Mine in Goderich explains why the NDP vote was so high here? It's one of the biggest employers.

[mileslunn]

Hatman and LilTommy - Those make a lot of sense.  I guess I was comparing to 2011 federal results when the Tories won both easily but that was 7 years ago so the reasons mentioned would explain why there was a bigger shift here.

Another surprise is NDP narrowly won Niagara on the Lake 42% to 41% this despite PCs winning 6 of the 8 polls (NDP won Virgil and Queenston, PCs the rural ones) although I get the impression in Niagara Falls a lot of the crossover federal Tory-provincial NDP are more the types voting for the candidate rather than party thus tough to say for sure how it would have gone with a generic candidate.  Considering it is slightly less NDP friendly than Niagara Centre, my guess is if Rob Nicholson had not run in 2015, the Liberals would have narrowly won it (slightly less Liberal friendly than St. Catherines) but probably only 2 to 3 points while provincially would have gone NDP also only 2 to 3 points much like St. Catherines as Wayne Gates is quite popular personally.  The NDP's core base in Niagara Falls is probably around 20% while another 15-20% are promiscuous progressives who vote for whichever party is most likely to stop the Tories.  The core Tory vote is probably around 35% it seems, so last federal election 35% were core Tory voters and another 7% Rob Nicholson voters while provincially 20% core NDP, another 20% promiscuous progressives, and another 10% personal Wayne Gates votes.

[mileslunn]

Here is Ottawa pre-amalgamation, will do a map and also give numbers once completed.

Cumberland

Liberal 37.3%
PC 36.5%
NDP 22.1%

Gloucester

Liberal 35.9%
PC 35.9%
NDP 23.8%

Goulbourn

PC 47.9%
NDP 22.8%
Liberal 21.8%

Kanata

PC 39.8%
NDP 31.7%
Liberal 18.2%

Nepean

PC 42.9%
NDP 29.1%
Liberal 21.8%

Osgoode

PC 57.9%
NDP19.6%
Liberal 15.1%

Ottawa

NDP 37.5%
Liberal 35.6%
PC 21.8%

Rideau

PC 54.8%
NDP 21.7%
Liberal 15.3%

Rockcliffe Park

Liberal 44.3%
PC 37%
NDP 12.6%

Vanier

Liberal 41.6%
NDP 32.5%
PC 19.6%

West Carleton

PC 51.8%
NDP 22.7%
Liberal 11.8%


While imperfect since polls don't always exactly correspond to old boundaries, I had Liberals ahead by 5 votes in Gloucester, but maybe PC's won it, basically a tie.  Similar trend here, PCs over 50% in the outerlying rural areas, PCs winning a plurality in the Anglophone suburbs, while Liberals narrowly ahead in suburbs with large Francophone communities asides from Vanier which is more core than suburban thus NDP in second as opposed to PCs.  Ottawa proper did go NDP although same happened in 2011 federally.  PCs got slaughtered there as they have in most urban core areas.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is Ottawa pre-amalgamation, will do a map and also give numbers once completed.



Ottawa

NDP 37.5%
Liberal 35.6%
PC 21.8%

Yay!

I didn't realize the NDP had won the old city in the 2011 federal election. I guess Dewar ran up a large enough margin in Ottawa Centre while the Tories and Liberals split the vote elsewhere pretty evenly.

Maybe if I get the chance, I'll do a transposition by ward.

[Hatman 🍁]

Map:

[lilTommy]

Map:

Ottawa folks, I was surprised with the Kanata vote; the NDP and PCs so relatively close (31% and 39%) and the OLP being at one of the lowest %s in the region, That's the third highest NDP vote (after Ottawa and Vaner) and the fourth lowest Liberal vote (after West Carlton, Rideau and Osgoode)
Is Kanata a new hot spot for the NDP?

The Ontario wide municipalities map will be fun

[mileslunn]

Map:

Ottawa folks, I was surprised with the Kanata vote; the NDP and PCs so relatively close (31% and 39%) and the OLP being at one of the lowest %s in the region, That's the third highest NDP vote (after Ottawa and Vaner) and the fourth lowest Liberal vote (after West Carlton, Rideau and Osgoode)
Is Kanata a new hot spot for the NDP?

The Ontario wide municipalities map will be fun

Kanata used to be a conservative stronghold, but it seems with more people moving out there (maybe lower rent not sure?) it is becoming considerably less conservative.  Also while minor, don't forget Jack MacLaren was the Trilium Party candidate so if you take total right wing vote, it was probably around the same in both Kanata and Nepean which are similar being mostly suburban with not much countryside and predominately Anglophone.  The other four the PCs got higher in are considerably more rural while it seems the Liberals were generally strongest in areas with large Francophone communities save Ottawa and Rockcliffe Park.  In Ottawa lots of civil servants while Rockcliffe Park is much like Midtown Toronto or some of the lakeshore polls in Mississauga and Oakville, too rich to vote NDP, too educated to vote PC (I think a Christine Elliott or Patrick Brown PC would have won Rockcliffe Park, but Doug Ford too big a turn off to that demographic).

[King of Kensington]

How about pre-amalgamation Kingston?

[Hatman 🍁]

Map:

Ottawa folks, I was surprised with the Kanata vote; the NDP and PCs so relatively close (31% and 39%) and the OLP being at one of the lowest %s in the region, That's the third highest NDP vote (after Ottawa and Vaner) and the fourth lowest Liberal vote (after West Carlton, Rideau and Osgoode)
Is Kanata a new hot spot for the NDP?

The Ontario wide municipalities map will be fun

Kanata used to be a conservative stronghold, but it seems with more people moving out there (maybe lower rent not sure?) it is becoming considerably less conservative.  Also while minor, don't forget Jack MacLaren was the Trilium Party candidate so if you take total right wing vote, it was probably around the same in both Kanata and Nepean which are similar being mostly suburban with not much countryside and predominately Anglophone.  The other four the PCs got higher in are considerably more rural while it seems the Liberals were generally strongest in areas with large Francophone communities save Ottawa and Rockcliffe Park.  In Ottawa lots of civil servants while Rockcliffe Park is much like Midtown Toronto or some of the lakeshore polls in Mississauga and Oakville, too rich to vote NDP, too educated to vote PC (I think a Christine Elliott or Patrick Brown PC would have won Rockcliffe Park, but Doug Ford too big a turn off to that demographic).

Rockcliffe Park is actually like Rosedale. It's super wealthy.

The high NDP support in Kanata is a bit of a surprise, but the area is growing with younger families, and younger people are more likely to vote NDP. Also, the area is not very francophone (unlike Orleans) so less loyalty to the Liberals for progressive vote-switchers.

Also, let's not forget Kanata went for Alex Munter in the 2006 mayoral election. But that had more to do with him being from there.

[mileslunn]

How about pre-amalgamation Kingston?

I would need to see a map to confirm but I think all that was added was the parts north of the 401 now in Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston, but if you provide a map I can do that pretty easily.

[Hatman 🍁]

How about pre-amalgamation Kingston?

I would need to see a map to confirm but I think all that was added was the parts north of the 401 now in Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston, but if you provide a map I can do that pretty easily.

I think if you use topomaps, it'll have the boundaries.

[adma]

The high NDP support in Kanata is a bit of a surprise, but the area is growing with younger families, and younger people are more likely to vote NDP. Also, the area is not very francophone (unlike Orleans) so less loyalty to the Liberals for progressive vote-switchers.

Also, let's not forget Kanata went for Alex Munter in the 2006 mayoral election. But that had more to do with him being from there.

And it might also be argued that historically speaking, Tory support in Kanata has been artificially elevated by its being electorally bunched up with Ottawa's rural/exurban fringe.  On its own, it can be much more moderate, even (as here and as with Munter) progressive...

[adma]

1.  NDP wins Goderich by almost 10% so a bit surprised why when everywhere else went PC, why this would go NDP?

Besides the salt-strike factor mentioned, keep in mind that 2014 was a nearly 3-way dead heat; and besides, Goderich proper is "urban" with a bit of an artsy/creative touch a la Stratford.

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If it were in Essex rather than CKL, it might have gone NDP--at any rate, the "united left" (NDP + Green) overtook the PCs.

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The "heavy job losses" (due to Heinz bailing) + a local candidate better explain the NDP's outperformance in Leamington in '14.

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Definitely--that's why Con parties have always overperformed in Aylmer/Malahide.  (But remember, too, that the EML Liberals never before sunk below 10%, not even in 2011 federally)

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Yeah, Thurlow (and Todd Smith's incumbency) skews the picture.

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Almost certainly Michael/Mike Harris backlash.

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Actually, the main reason (on top of historical strength) was a local candidate, town councillor Don Matheson.

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In London's case, don't forget the fact that it had NDP incumbents in place in *two* seats, and the more PC-viable of the two had a compromised candidate.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Saugeen Shores is really two merged towns, Port Elgin and Southampton, and if you look at the poll maps the Liberal strength was greater in Southampton, which is a cutesy touristy town with a lot of well-off retirees. Port Elgin is more of a regular Ontario town (although still slightly touristy, as basically all the Lake Huron towns are). Goderich is more industrial; it's the only town along there that still has an active freighter port, mainly because of the mine.

[Hatman 🍁]

Map of Hamilton. Had to create a new map template.

[mileslunn]

Hamilton as usual has the Niagara Enscarpment as the dividing point.  Usually Tories do well above it, but below it favours progressive parties.  Also more rural above it, but do have some suburbs.  Off course Hamilton Mountain is above it and it went strongly NDP and Stoney Creek is on both sides.  I am now at letter T for municipalities and counties so once done, I will PM Hatman with the data.  I will also make some maps myself too.