Which of these states will be the Most Republican in 2028

[OSR stands with Israel]

I say Wisconsin Easily


I say these will be the PVI of each state by then


Wisconsin: +6 Republican
Pennsyvania: + 3 Republican
Michigan: + 4 Democratic (I believe by 2028 even MN will be more Republican than MI)

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

MI by a good bit.

[dw93]

Wisconsin, but it'll be lean, not likely or toss up.

PA and MI will be toss ups and then become lean Republican states in 2036 or 2040.

[wesmoorenerd]

I think WI will be a tilt R tossup state, while MI will be a pure tossup. I really don't think PA will continue a conservative trend, it doesn't have the same demographic shifts you're seeing in WI and MI (well, it has them, but to a lesser extent).

[Politician]

Pennsylvania by far.

PA: R+2
WI: R+1
MI: EVEN

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WI: EVEN
MI: D+2
PA: D+4

[Politician]

The "Republican Wisconsin" is overrated. PA will go red first, the rural areas are trending R faster and WI has always been more elastic (as in 2012 Obama carried WI by more than PA despite Paul Ryan being from WI).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The "Republican Wisconsin" is overrated. PA will go red first, the rural areas are trending R faster and WI has always been more elastic (as in 2012 Obama carried WI by more than PA despite Paul Ryan being from WI).

Wisconsin, on average, is more R than both MI and PA. But it's very elastic, so the ceilings and floors for both parties in both states is higher than it is in WI.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Wisconsin

[Xing]

Not surprised at how many people are on the Safe R WI train , but I'm stunned at how few people have said Michigan. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, growth in the urban areas can at least keep Democrats competitive there. In Michigan, unless the population decline reverses in Detroit, Democrats won't have any way to offset their losses in the rural parts of the state (assuming those losses are permanent, which this thread seems to assume.)

As a Democrat, I'm the most worried about Michigan long-term, and probably the least worried about Pennsylvania. Although in the short term, I think Michigan is the most likely to flip (in 2020) followed by Wisconsin, then Pennsylvania.

[cvparty]

Not surprised at how many people are on the Safe R WI train , but I'm stunned at how few people have said Michigan. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, growth in the urban areas can at least keep Democrats competitive there. In Michigan, unless the population decline reverses in Detroit, Democrats won't have any way to offset their losses in the rural parts of the state (assuming those losses are permanent, which this thread seems to assume.)

exactly

[Politician]

Not surprised at how many people are on the Safe R WI train , but I'm stunned at how few people have said Michigan. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, growth in the urban areas can at least keep Democrats competitive there. In Michigan, unless the population decline reverses in Detroit, Democrats won't have any way to offset their losses in the rural parts of the state (assuming those losses are permanent, which this thread seems to assume.)

As a Democrat, I'm the most worried about Michigan long-term, and probably the least worried about Pennsylvania. Although in the short term, I think Michigan is the most likely to flip (in 2020) followed by Wisconsin, then Pennsylvania.

This. But Democrats have good news in Michigan: Some liberal areas such as Grand Rapids and the college areas are growing, and Detroit's population loss will probably reverse in around 10 or so years.

I actually don't think any of these sates will be Safe R by the 2030's, but swing states with a slight Republican lean/

[PoliticalShelter]

Some images for thought.

[RINO Tom]

Not surprised at how many people are on the Safe R WI train , but I'm stunned at how few people have said Michigan. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, growth in the urban areas can at least keep Democrats competitive there. In Michigan, unless the population decline reverses in Detroit, Democrats won't have any way to offset their losses in the rural parts of the state (assuming those losses are permanent, which this thread seems to assume.)

As a Democrat, I'm the most worried about Michigan long-term, and probably the least worried about Pennsylvania. Although in the short term, I think Michigan is the most likely to flip (in 2020) followed by Wisconsin, then Pennsylvania.

This. But Democrats have good news in Michigan: Some liberal areas such as Grand Rapids and the college areas are growing, and Detroit's population loss will probably reverse in around 10 or so years.

I actually don't think any of these sates will be Safe R by the 2030's, but swing states with a slight Republican lean/

I don't think anyone from Michigan would describe Grand Rapids as liberal.

[CookieDamage]

It's hard to see any of them going the route of West Virginia. PA has Philly, Philly Burbs, and Pittsburgh. Michigan has Detroit, which may see bigger and better days, as well as other areas. Wisconsin has Milwaukee and traditionally rural Dem areas.

[OneJ]

Michigan can conceivably be still competitive by 2028 since Detroit’s population decline has slowed down considerably and has experienced its first growth in decades although that still doesn’t confirm how other parts of the state will vote ten years from now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It could be, but it won't be.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

It could be, but it won't be.

It's like a chatbot escaped into the wild.

[cvparty]

It could be, but it won't be.

It's like a chatbot escaped into the wild.

LMAOOO

[5280]

America's Dairyland state.

[Zaybay]

Im going against the grain here and disagreeing that Wisconsin will be the most Republican. In fact, I believe it will be the most Democratic by 2028. Lets look at Wisconsin.

Wisconsin 2012


Wisconsin 2016 and Supreme Court 2018


So as we can see, a lot of Blue was lost in 2016 and regained in 2018. This region is called the driftless and it makes up most of western Wisconsin. It swung heavily towards the Rs, but swung to the Ds in 2018. This implies that the region is not strongly trending R but rather a swing region that goes with the Ds most of the time, but goes for populists as well. But lets say this region is trending strongly R and the Dems have only the urban areas of Madison and Milwaukee left. The thing is, however, that that is really all they need. Dane county, which holds Madison, is the fastest growing county in all of Wisconsin, and has gotten more blue overtime. Its highly probable that in 2028, this region would be able to hold the state at lean D, with or without the driftless region.

Now lets take a look at the other two states, without maps, since I don't want to take up too much space.

Pennsylvania has 3 regions. The Western WWC Pittsburgh area, the central "Pennsyltucky" region, and the suburban and metropolitan eastern region. The GOP holds the center and is gaining in the west, with Pittsburgh being one of the only cities trending R, but the East is growing exponentially, compared to the rest of the state. Add to that the swingyness of WWC voters, and you have a recipe for a tilt D state.

Finally, Michigan, and in my opinion, the most Republican state by 2028, for it lacks the one thing that keeps the other states in the D camp, a growing urban center. Michigan has Detroit, and that's it. You can argue it has Flint or Grand Rapids, but Detroit is the hub and center of the state. And its declining. Detroit has been losing population, and while its not anymore, its not gaining any more people, which is what keeps Wisconsin and Penn. D. This leaves the rest of the state to keep the democrats afloat and, while it is WWC, I'm unsure if it will be able to provide the swing needed later down the line. The suburbs in Michigan, which are growing, are also very R friendly, similarly to the famous Milwaukee suburbs that need to really count their votes quicker. But while Wisconsin has the Dane suburbs to counteract that, Michigan doesn't. So, with the way things are currently going, the state of Michigan will be the one to fall to the Rs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker could very well be reelected and a Dem can win the state in 2020, like it did in 2012.  The Dems depend on MI, WI and Pa to be elected president, but Walker is popular. It doesn't mean it's an R state.

[TDAS04]

Michigan.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Democrats ever stop sucking, it will be Pennsylvania, since it's the least elastic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All three won't break their presidential trend, for years to come, but they can still vote, at some point for R for Governor, and done so, regularly.