Is Florida turning in to a Tilt D swing state

[Karpatsky]

It’ll be a blue state in about 30 years when it’s submerged in water.

lol

I've always heard FL's D party is also really incompetent (maybe even worse than ours), which could be a bigger factor than people give credit for normally.

[Person Man]

It’ll be a blue state in about 30 years when it’s submerged in water.

lol

I've always heard FL's D party is also really incompetent (maybe even worse than ours), which could be a bigger factor than people give credit for normally.

Why doesn't the national party intervene?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016, Clinton was supposed to win it, but it didn't happen. It's a purple state that Leans R

[UWS]

Lean R, actually.

[UWS]

That's why Adam Putnam and Scott are leading

Yes. And the Cuban American vote is an important factor in Republican successes.

The moreover that Florida has elected Republican governors for 20 years, which demonstrates Florida's conservative tendency.

[Person Man]

That's why Adam Putnam and Scott are leading

Yes. And the Cuban American vote is an important factor in Republican successes.

The moreover that Florida has elected Republican governors for 20 years, which demonstrates Florida's conservative tendency.

It will depend on how Cubans integrate with other white collar whites in the SF burbs. If I-95 south of Martin county was D+15 instead of D+10, that could have been enough to flip it.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Isn't Cuban American voters are voting more and more Democratic?

[Podgy the Bear]

It's tilt R now.  The Hispanic influx is being matched (and then some) by whites from the Midwest and Northeast--and they register and vote.

Furthermore, the Democratic Party machinery in Florida doesn't function well and are miles behind the Republicans in efficiency and delivering the vote.  I don't see the Democrats winning significantly at the statewide level.  And if Nelson loses in November, it tells you what's going to happen in 2020 (Trump will win easily).

[TML]

Isn't Cuban American voters are voting more and more Democratic?

It is true that younger Cuban American voters tend to favor Democrats more. However, an analysis of the Cuban American vote in 2016 revealed that it was far from the decisive factor in Trump's win in FL - in fact, even just winning the Cuban American vote by 5 points or less wouldn't have been enough for Hillary to win statewide.

[Person Man]

Isn't Cuban American voters are voting more and more Democratic?

It is true that younger Cuban American voters tend to favor Democrats more. However, an analysis of the Cuban American vote in 2016 revealed that it was far from the decisive factor in Trump's win in FL - in fact, even just winning the Cuban American vote by 5 points or less wouldn't have been enough for Hillary to win statewide.

The Cuban vote isn't really that big or partisan.

I definitely think that something needs to happen with the party down there.

[President Johnson]

It’ll be a blue state in about 30 years when it’s submerged in water.

LOL, best answer in this thread.

[Person Man]

It’ll be a blue state in about 30 years when it’s submerged in water.

LOL, best answer in this thread.

I think maybe the water will go up 3 or 4 feet in my lifetime. Might ruin the beaches. And get into parking lot. Canal side houses might be screwed.

[American_Aristocracy]

I expect it to soon become a Leaning Democratic state once younger coherts of the baby boomer generation stop migrating there to retire and than  an influx of Hispanic voters eventually overwhelm the retirees in voting power.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a purple state that Leans R, more often than not.

Crucial states are CO, Va, NH & WI

[john cage bubblegum]

It's actually remarkable how consistently tilt-R Florida has been since 1992.  Approximately 3 points to the right of the nation every election except 2000, and even in that election it wasn't that far off at 0.5 points to the right of the nation.

The old Demosaurs and retirees have been nicely balancing the influx of non-Cuban Latino voters and the Dem shift among Cuban voters.  My instinct is that FL will very slowly drift toward the Dems, but I have to see it to believe it.

[AtorBoltox]

It’ll be a blue state in about 30 years when it’s submerged in water.

This. In the next few decades all the Republican voting retirees will have left and the only people who won't be able to leave will be poor minorities

[Person Man]

It’ll be a blue state in about 30 years when it’s submerged in water.

This. In the next few decades all the Republican voting retirees will have left and the only people who won't be able to leave will be poor minorities

I know the people who live in those future flooded homes. I would say global warming helps Democrats unless it gets above like 5 feet. By 5 feet sea rise, this would be considered a minor problem. By then, we could be half way to everything within 35 or 40 latitudes being either tropical or uninhabited desert.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats don't need FL to win the election.

[TML]

Democrats don't need FL to win the election.

This may be true, but if they don't carry FL, they don't have much breathing room elsewhere to compensate for it.

[Person Man]

Democrats don't need FL to win the election.

This may be true, but if they don't carry FL, they don't have much breathing room elsewhere to compensate for it.

They haven't been able to since 1992. Democrats lose if the election is within 3%. Florida votes more Republican between 2 and 4%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats don't need FL to win the election.

This may be true, but if they don't carry FL, they don't have much breathing room elsewhere to compensate for it.

They haven't been able to since 1992. Democrats lose if the election is within 3%. Florida votes more Republican between 2 and 4%.

Nadar cost Al Gore NH and/FL in 2000 and Johnson cost Hillary WI, PA and MI. But, scandals broke and they both would of won, otherwise.

[Person Man]

Democrats don't need FL to win the election.

This may be true, but if they don't carry FL, they don't have much breathing room elsewhere to compensate for it.

They haven't been able to since 1992. Democrats lose if the election is within 3%. Florida votes more Republican between 2 and 4%.

Nadar cost Al Gore NH and/FL in 2000 and Johnson cost Hillary WI, PA and MI. But, scandals broke and they both would of won, otherwise.

Not with Gore...wasn't there a Bush DUI scandal as the November surprise? And even in both cases, a D win would have either made Florida flip or much more likely than not to do so. I really don't believe Nader was a spoiler. I think their voters stayed home and either 10% of Gore voters eventually voted for Bush in 04 or with no fresh scandal, turnout was enhanced amongst Republicans. That is why Gore and Kerry got roughly the same 48% but it seems that between 2000 and 2004, all the Nader votes were replaced with Bush votes...almost 1:1.

[pppolitics]

The future of the GOP looks a lot like this fast-growing community in Florida

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/18/florida-senior-citizens-vote-election-2018-218758

[Zaybay]

The future of the GOP looks a lot like this fast-growing community in Florida

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/18/florida-senior-citizens-vote-election-2018-218758

Wow, Senior Citizens make up the R base in Florida National Politics?! WOAH!

To be honest, this article is well constructed but tells a story we all(hopefully all, we are on a political forum) know. Latinos, especially Cuban Americans, are moving to the Democratic party up and down the ballot, while retirees are moving into the state, keeping it a tossup. Florida appears to be a state that will be in limbo for some time, as the flow has been constant on both sides. There is no growing metropolis like Phoenix to finally tip the balance, nor is there a rural shift that can occur like in the Rust Belt. Turnout is the only way to win in Florida.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP is faltering in the statewide races for Governor and for Senate.  FL is turning into a blue state.