2008: McCain/Pawlenty v. Obama/Biden (and would this have avoided Trump?)

[Reformicon]

Pawlenty's loss the other day got me thinking about what would have happened had McCain selected Pawlenty as his running mate in 2008 instead of Sarah Palin.

Some would argue that Trump's nomination is the result of the anti-Palin sentiment among the establishment in 2008 creating a backlash among the GOP base for a populist "regular guy" nominee in 2016.  This desire was amplified by Romney's nomination in 2012 and eventual loss as a rich guy who likes to fire people.

Averting the Palin VP nomination in 2008 via a Pawlenty pick sets up McCain to still lose the election to Obama, but may avoid some of the angst that followed due to Palin's treatment by the establishment.  Also, it would set Pawlenty up to be the nominee in 2012.  He would still lose to Obama as well, but the GOP would have avoided a desire to find an anti-Romney in 2016, at which point Trump seemed more like Palin than Romney and thus became the candidate of the GOP base.

In fact, Romney, having lost the nomination in both 2008 and 2012, probably would have come back to win it in 2016 in this scenario and would have beaten Hillary in the general.  Hillary would still be a flawed candidate and still would have had to endure the Sanders primary challenge.

All of this might have averted the GOP from the Trump path, if not made Romney or another similar Republican president right now.

[SingingAnalyst]

Obama/Biden 52% / 338 EV
McCain/Pawlenty 47% / 200 EV

After doing respectably well without moving too far right, the GOP tries again in 2012:

Obama/Biden 50% / 302 EV
Pawlenty/Collins 48% / 236 EV

Romney would have a good go in 2016.