MD-Baltimore Sun: Baker and Jealous tied; Hogan gets quarter of Democrats

[heatcharger]

Only a poll of Democrats.



Hogan doing well with Democrats:



This one might need to be triaged.

[_]

Ok those numbers are pretty good.

[Politician]

Lean R

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Lol likely R at this point

[Ye We Can]

Hogan is my guy

[Maxwell]

smh what is it with Dems in blue states wanting a Trophy Moderate Republican who gets stymied by the legislature every time anyways and only is there to block things that Democrats actually want? (Hogan's not even that moderate but you know what i'm getting at)

Republicans don't really do this - Bel Edwards only won because David Vitter was total garbage and almost half of the Louisiana GOP just outright endorsed Edwards or didn't endorse anyone.

[Pandaguineapig]

Democrats got unlucky in that they have a crowded primary full of B- to C list candidates rather than getting an A lister to clear the field like O'Malley in 2006. My guess is that Internals were bad enough that the top tier of the Democratic bench (O,Malley comeback, Delaney, Perez, Sarbanes) decided to sit the race out

[Progressive Pessimist]

smh what is it with Dems in blue states wanting a Trophy Moderate Republican who gets stymied by the legislature every time anyways and only is there to block things that Democrats actually want? (Hogan's not even that moderate but you know what i'm getting at)

Republicans don't really do this - Bel Edwards only won because David Vitter was total garbage and almost half of the Louisiana GOP just outright endorsed Edwards or didn't endorse anyone.

I agree with you. It's very frustrating. Now, if this translates and Hogan is winning that many Democrats, this might be Likely R instead of Lean R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol likely R at this point

[SNJ1985]

smh what is it with Dems in blue states wanting a Trophy Moderate Republican who gets stymied by the legislature every time anyways and only is there to block things that Democrats actually want? (Hogan's not even that moderate but you know what i'm getting at)

Republicans don't really do this

Red states do elect Trophy Moderate Democrats. They just send them to the Senate (Heitkamp, Manchin, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill) instead of governors' mansions. If forced to choose between the two, I'd rather have the opposite party in the governors' mansion than in the federal legislature, where it has power over the entire country.

[MT Treasurer]

smh what is it with Dems in blue states wanting a Trophy Moderate Republican who gets stymied by the legislature every time anyways and only is there to block things that Democrats actually want? (Hogan's not even that moderate but you know what i'm getting at)

Republicans don't really do this

Red states do elect Trophy Moderate Democrats. They just send them to the Senate (Heitkamp, Manchin, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill) instead of governors' mansions. If forced to choose between the two, I'd rather have the opposite party in the governors' mansion than in the federal legislature, where it has power over the entire country.

This is very much accurate, and it’s something people tend to forget or ignore when they complain about the increasing tribalization or polarization of politics in red states these days. It could always be worse for Democrats (in that Hogan, Baker, Scott, etc. might get elected to the Senate as well, which they obviously cannot IRL).

I still think this race is a Tossup, but it’s clear that Hogan is in a much better position than Ehrlich was in 2006.

[WritOfCertiorari]

I don't know why it's so surprising that people are generally comfortable having a moderate Republican in office. Both houses of the legislature are held by Democrats, and the last 4 years have not been much of a departure from the previous 8. Not to mention, the candidates on the Democratic side are uninspiring- Ben Jealous is an exception, but even then, he's not the caliber of candidate that O'Malley or even Anthony Brown were.

I think Rushern Baker could actually appeal to a lot of undecideds- he's a reasonable candidate from the state's second largest county, and much of the state is familiar with him. I still think Hogan will win, but there's no imminent threat to the political order from any of these candidates, and for one of the richest states in the country, that's what should be expected.

The problem is that there is a lot of inequality in terms of income and wealth, and that's not something that can be totally fixed at the state level. State Democrats seem to not really care about that issue, anyway, and as we saw in New Jersey, it's not like there's a great track record for this at the state level. Nobody wants to pay higher taxes at the state level, especially with the capping of the SALT deduction in last year's tax bill.

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats got unlucky in that they have a crowded primary full of B- to C list candidates rather than getting an A lister to clear the field like O'Malley in 2006. My guess is that Internals were bad enough that the top tier of the Democratic bench (O,Malley comeback, Delaney, Perez, Sarbanes) decided to sit the race out

Delaney literally should have run here instead of making his insane bid for President.

[Maxwell]

smh what is it with Dems in blue states wanting a Trophy Moderate Republican who gets stymied by the legislature every time anyways and only is there to block things that Democrats actually want? (Hogan's not even that moderate but you know what i'm getting at)

Republicans don't really do this

Red states do elect Trophy Moderate Democrats. They just send them to the Senate (Heitkamp, Manchin, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill) instead of governors' mansions. If forced to choose between the two, I'd rather have the opposite party in the governors' mansion than in the federal legislature, where it has power over the entire country.

Eh I really think the circumstances are different - Machin was a super popular governor and got elcted just before the GOP tidal wave hit WV, mccaskill got elected when Missouri was still a swing state, Donnelly got very lucky. Tester is the only one I could buy and even then Obama almost won there in 08. Compare that to Massachusetts and Maryland, two states where the GOP hasn't had a chance nationally in forever and yet consistently flirt with electing a gop governor.

[MT Treasurer]

Eh I really think the circumstances are different - Machin was a super popular governor and got elcted just before the GOP tidal wave hit WV, mccaskill got elected when Missouri was still a swing state, Donnelly got very lucky. Tester is the only one I could buy and even then Obama almost won there in 08. Compare that to Massachusetts and Maryland, two states where the GOP hasn't had a chance nationally in forever and yet consistently flirt with electing a gop governor.

What about Heitkamp? Granted, she’s an exceptionally strong candidate, but I doubt a Republican could win a Senate race in a D+17 state. Or Kander almost winning in 2016, Bredesen leading in TN, Roberts being vulnerable in 2014 of all years, etc.

[Xing]

Likely R. Democrats probably shouldn't bother with this race, at this point. Hogan might not be "moderate", but there are worse Republican governors

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems aren't gonna vacate MD. Harris has endorsed Jealous.

[Maxwell]

Eh I really think the circumstances are different - Machin was a super popular governor and got elcted just before the GOP tidal wave hit WV, mccaskill got elected when Missouri was still a swing state, Donnelly got very lucky. Tester is the only one I could buy and even then Obama almost won there in 08. Compare that to Massachusetts and Maryland, two states where the GOP hasn't had a chance nationally in forever and yet consistently flirt with electing a gop governor.

What about Heitkamp? Granted, she’s an exceptionally strong candidate, but I doubt a Republican could win a Senate race in a D+17 state. Or Kander almost winning in 2016, Bredesen leading in TN, Roberts being vulnerable in 2014 of all years, etc.

I'll give you Heitkamp - in fact I'll even give you the Dakotas. The Dakotas haven't voted democrat in forever and rarely vote for Democrat Governors but have had several Democratic Senators.

But combating Kander and Roberts - Kander was an elected official before Missouri turned completely Republican and was still relatively swing, and Brownback had sufficiently screwed the pooch enough to where a large sect of voters were willing to vote anti-Republican who hadn't before. (though Kansas has had a few moderate Dem governors)

I still think the bottom is going to fall out for Bredesen at some point. He won't win.

Maybe the reason I'm not feeling the reciprocal is because the last few years have been EXCEPTIONALLY republican years and as a result ancestral democrats and moderate democrats in red states have been wiped out besides the senate bois and maybe a few of these gubernatorial races are going to result in surprise democrat wins like Oklahoma and Kansas.

[Adam Griffin]

Hogan is no Baker (MA). This race probably doesn't lean too much more to Hogan than GA-GOV does to the GOP. There's going to be a good chunk of voters who "come home" in the end.

[UncleSam]

Hogan is no Baker (MA). This race probably doesn't lean too much more to Hogan than GA-GOV does to the GOP. There's going to be a good chunk of voters who "come home" in the end.

I don’t think many people think Hogan will win by double digits, but he’s over 50% in most polls. I doubt the undecideds are really undecided (they’re probably 90% Democrats who either don’t know or don’t like the primary options but will come home in the end), but it’s hard to see a significant portion of those saying they will vote for Hogan changing that stance barring a blunder on his part or an exceptional campaign from the Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jealous can make up a 9 point spread

[Sadader]

Eh I really think the circumstances are different - Machin was a super popular governor and got elcted just before the GOP tidal wave hit WV, mccaskill got elected when Missouri was still a swing state, Donnelly got very lucky. Tester is the only one I could buy and even then Obama almost won there in 08. Compare that to Massachusetts and Maryland, two states where the GOP hasn't had a chance nationally in forever and yet consistently flirt with electing a gop governor.

What about Heitkamp? Granted, she’s an exceptionally strong candidate, but I doubt a Republican could win a Senate race in a D+17 state. Or Kander almost winning in 2016, Bredesen leading in TN, Roberts being vulnerable in 2014 of all years, etc.

I'll give you Heitkamp - in fact I'll even give you the Dakotas. The Dakotas haven't voted democrat in forever and rarely vote for Democrat Governors but have had several Democratic Senators.

I mean, Obama only ran 5 points worse in the Dakotas than Montana in 08, and the October final polls even gave him a very narrow lead in ND. But Senators like Heitkamp are obviously very different to these blue state Governors; she’s got a legitimate conservative (~) identity, as opposed to someone like Baker who is moderate at best.

[Cold War Liberal]

Democrats got unlucky in that they have a crowded primary full of B- to C list candidates rather than getting an A lister to clear the field like O'Malley in 2006. My guess is that Internals were bad enough that the top tier of the Democratic bench (O'Malley comeback, Delaney, Perez, Sarbanes) decided to sit the race out

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

*Takes breath*

AH HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

No one likes O'Malley. Delaney should have run, or maybe Mizeur. It is possible that Baker or Jealous will win, but it'll be close if they do. Hogan wins by ~5 is my expectation. Likely R, closer to lean than safe but still likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maryland isn't NH, Hogan is popular, but it isn't Safe R

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

4 more years of Hogan would be a disaster for the people of Maryland.