N U T part 2: The Presidency of Bernie Sanders and the 2022 midterms

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Part 2 of gubernatorial elections polling

Georgia:
Fmr. Deputy AG and Acting AG Sally Yates: 48%
Governor Casey Cagle: 40%
Undecided: 12%

Kansas:
Governor Laura Kelly: 45%
Fmr. State SOS Kris Kobach: 44%
Undecided: 11%

Maryland:
Fmr. NAACP President Ben Jealous: 47%
Lt. Governor Boyd Rutherford: 44%
Unsure: 9%

Massachusetts:
Governor Charlie Baker: 46%
Mr. Bob Massie: 44%
Unsure: 10%

Nebraska:
Lt. Governor Mike Foley: 49%
State Legislator  Sue Crawford: 43%
Unsure: 8%

Ohio:
Governor Richard Cordray: 48%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich: 45%
Unsure: 7%

South Carolina:
Lt. Governor Pamela Evette: 47%
State Rep. James Smith: 44%
Undecided: 9%

Texas:
Governor Greg Abbott: 49%
Entrepreneur Andrew White: 42%
Unsure: 9%

Wisconsin:
Governor Tony Evers: 50%
Fmr. Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch: 42%
Unsure; 8%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

It is impossible for Kasich to run for governor again

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In other words, since he's been out of office for four years at this point, he can run again.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

By the way, the two statehood acts essentially repealed the 435 rule, and instead made a new rule of 440 representatives. Puerto Rico has 4 districts (they lost quite a bit of population in the census, likely due to the natural disasters that had hit the island hard, such as Hurricane Maria, combined with other factors) and DC has 1.

Generic Congressional Ballot Polling, Oct. 25 2022
Democrats: 48%
Republicans: 43%
Unsure: 9%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Close senate election polling, Oct. 25 2022


Alaska:
Senator Lisa Murkowski: 49%
State Senator Dennis Egan: 44%
Undecided: 7%

Arkansas:
Senator John Boozman: 48%
Mayor Mark Stodola: 42%
Undecided: 10%

Florida:
Representative Darren Soto: 48%
Senator Marco Rubio: 44%
Undecided: 8%

Georgia:
Senator Johnny Isakson: 47%
Fmr. State Senator Jason Carter: 45%
Undecided:8%

Indiana:
Senator Todd Young: 48%
State Senator Tim Lanane: 44%
Undecided: 8%

Iowa:
Fmr. Lt. Governor Patty Judge: 47%
Senator Chuck Grassley: 46%
Undecided: 7%

Kentucky:
Senator Rand Paul: 45%
Congresswoman Amy McGrath: 45%
Undecided: 10%

Louisiana:
Senator John N. Kennedy: 45%
Fmr. Governor John Bel Edwards: 44%
Undecided: 11%

Missouri:
Fmr. Governor Jay Nixon: 46%
Senator Roy Blunt: 43%
Undecided: 11%

North Carolina:
Mayor Esther Manheimer: 46%
Congressman Mark Meadows: 42%
Undecided: 12%

Ohio:
Senator Rob Portman: 47%
Fmr. State Senator Nina Turner: 43%
Undecided: 10%

Pennsylvania:
Governor Tom Wolf: 49%
Senator Pat Toomey: 45%
Undecided: 6%

South Carolina:
Senator Tim Scott: 49%
Congressman Arik Bjorn: 42%
Undecided: 9%

Wisconsin:
Fmr. Senator Russ Feingold: 49%
Fmr, State Senator Leah Vukmir: 40%
Undecided: 11%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

OCTOBER 27TH, 2020
Press Conference by AG Zephyr Teachout to be held at 8:30 AM

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

          "Hello, everyone. I am sure every single one of you is anxious, wondering why I am holding this conference. I will cut straight to the point: The Department of Justice is recommending indictments against Former President Trump, Former Vice President Pence, and several managers of the immigrant camps that housed over  1,100 children, whose disappearances we have been investigating for a year and a half now. We are also considering indictments for Former Attorney General Sessions and Former Secretary of Homeland Security Nielsen."

gasps by reporters

          "Now, I will tell you the evidence we have found to confirm that all these individuals engaged in intentional extreme neglect of these children, and how by doing so killed upwards of 1,000 children."


And so she did. She would go into detail of the entire affair, and of the alleged block of this intelligence by Republican leadership from those who may speak out about it. At times she had to pause due to sheer grief as she went through the description.

In a nutshell, Trump had ordered the ICE agents who were at those facilities to "get rid of those children. I don't care what you have to do, just get rid of them, and don't make it obvious. Don't go too easy on these illegals either, though." This was found on a document in one of the facilities. The agents would take dozens of kids into areas more secluded from the entrances, as to make them less visible to reporters, and blocked the entire area off, as well as taped the mouths of the children. They began systematically starving the children, beating them, and in one case, a child was shot in the leg and bled to death. Vice President Pence and AG Sessions had been told of the affair and had turned a blind eye to it. Republican leaders are believed to have feared that the information would leak and contained it as best as they could, however, an anonymous representative leaked the information to the DOJ after questioning. AG Teachout, however, said they did not have enough evidence to indict the leaders. Kyrsten Nielsen was implicated in the fact that her Department was the one which was doing everything to the children, however, it wasn't known if she knew about it at the time, although she presumably did.


This would see the chances of Republicans doing well at all in 2022 vanish.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Reactions:

Oct. 27 2022

TRUMP RESPONDS TO INDICTMENT BY SAYING HE WON'T SHOW, AG TEACHOUT DECLARES HIM IN CONTEMPT

Trump Approvals, Oct 28 2022
Do you approve of Fmr. President Trump?
No: 76%
Yes: 20%
Unsure: 4%

Generic Congressional Ballot polling, Oct 29 2022:
Democrats: 57%
Republicans: 34%
Unsure: 6%
Third Party: 3%

Oct 30, 2022

FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP CAUGHT ATTEMPTING TO FLEE COUNTRY, ARRESTED AND BROUGHT TO COURT, PENCE COMPLIES

Nov. 1, 2022

TRUMP: THIS IS A POLITICAL WITCHHUNT

67% OF AMERICANS BELIEVE TRUMP WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INDIRECT MURDER OF IMMIGRANT CHILDREN BASED ON EVIDENCE

Nov 6, 2022

JURY: TRUMP AND PENCE GUILTY OF GROSS NEGLIGENCE, PENCE SENTENCED TO 10 YEARS IN PRISON WITH POSSIBLE PAROLE, TRUMP CONVICTED ON MURDER CHARGES, SENTENCED TO LIFE IN PRISON, PLUS 112,900 YEARS, 100 FOR EACH CHILD WHO WAS KILLED AND NO CHANCE OF PAROLE

(5 of the missing children were found by investigators in extremely bad condition, but they survived and were returned to their families)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Anchor 1: Hello, and welcome to Election Night in America, 2022.

Anchor 2: After the shocking events of this past week, these midterms are sure to be interesting.

Polls have closed in these states:

Georgia Gubernatorial Election: TOO EARLY TO CALL
2% In
Fmr. Deputy AG Sally Yates: 53.98%
Governor Casey Cagle: 43.21%
Other: 2.81%

The scandal-ridden Casey Cagle was a prime target for Democrats this year, and polls had them behind by 8, but the recent events have solidified the likelihood of their defeat. However, we will not call the race this early.

We will look at the other races in a bit.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

We're back.

Georgia Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
8% Reporting
Fmr. State Senator Jason Carter: 54.21%
Senator Johnny Isakson: 43.78%
Other: 2.01%

Polls previously showed Carter behind, but he appears to be running away with the race now. Despite this, we will not call it yet.

Kentucky Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
9% Reporting
Congresswoman Amy McGrath: 50.71%
Senator Rand Paul: 47.96%
Other: 1.33%

With Senator Paul being one of the few not implicated in the scandals, this will be a close race.

South Carolina Gubernatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
11% Reporting
State Rep. James Smith: 49.99%
Lt. Governor Pamela Evette: 47.91%
Other: 2.10%

A near rematch to 2018, Smith looks like he may be the first Democratic governor in over a decade for this state.

South Carolina Senatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
11% Reporting
Congressman Arik Bjorn: 49.43%
Senator Tim Scott: 48.44%
Other: 2.13%

If Arik Bjorn can pull this off, South Carolina, considered just a while ago as a very conservative state, will have two progressive democrats as senators.

Vermont Senatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC HOLD
15% Reporting
Senator Patrick Leahy: 88.11%
Ethan Sonneborn (Ineligible, Write-in): 7.07%
Other: 4.82%

No serious opposition came to Senator Leahy, so former gubernatorial candidate Ethan Sonneborn declared a write-in campaign despite not being eligible. Leahy has easily won.

Vermont Gubernatorial Election: DAVID ZUCKERMAN RE-ELECTED UNOPPOSED

Indiana Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
9% Reporting
State Senator Tim Lanane: 52.15%
Senator Todd Young: 45.59%
Other: 2.26%

Another possible gain for democrats here, it is too close for now.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Let's take a look at the elections in Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico Senate Elections:

Class 1: POPULAR DEMOCRAT GAIN (CAUCUS WITH DEMOCRATS)
87% Reporting
Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz: 51.45%
Fmr. State Rep. Ricardo Llerandi: 44.43%
Other: 4.12%

The Mayor of San Juan has handily won. She has announced she will caucus with the Democrats.

Class 2: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
87% Reporting
Professor Rafael Riefkohl: 37.62%
State Senator José Power: 36.14%
State Senator José Rosa: 24.43%
Other: 1.81%


Meanwhile, former Gubernatorial candidate Rafael Riefkohl is surprisingly leading under the new Puerto Rican Worker's Party, a left-wing, social democratic and democratic socialist party. However, it is still too close to call right now. Both Power and Riefkohl have said they will caucus with Democrats, and since Rosa is highly unlikely to win as of now, it looks like Democrats will have both seats here.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Polls have now closed in the following states:

Ohio Gubernatorial: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
1% Reporting
Governor Richard Cordray: 55.42%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich: 42.71%
Other: 1.87%

Kasich was considered likely to make this race close, but scandals combined with Sanders' rising popularity in the area makes it seem unlikely.

Ohio Senate: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
1% Reporting
Fmr. State Senator Nina Turner: 49.32%
Senator Rob Portman: 48.56%
Other: 2.12%

This will certainly be a close race, as Nina Turner only narrowly won her primary and is considered extreme, however, President Sanders has campaigned for her here, and his popularity in the state may bring her over the line.

North Carolina Senate: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
2% Reporting
Mayor Esther Manheimer: 61.88%
Congressman Mark Meadows: 34.09%
Other: 4.03%

The Mayor of Asheville is looking at a landslide win against Congressman Mark Meadows, who was heavily implicated in the scandal, yet pressed on, claiming it was a "political move by the commies up in Washington to shut down opposition."

Georgia Gubernatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
19% Reporting
Fmr. Deputy AG Sally Yates: 55.98%
Governor Casey Cagle: 41.61%
Other: 2.41%

The gap has become too large for Cagle to overcome, Atlanta is barely even reporting right now and Yates is ahead considerably. She has certainly won.

Senate Map:


Democrats: 55 (+2)
Republicans: 12
Too close to call/not called: 7
Not closed: 30

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Vermont Special Senate Election: PROGRESSIVE HOLD
30% Reporting
Senator Tim Ashe: 90.98%
Rocky De La Fuente: 9.02%

We were so focused on other races, we forgot about the Special Elections. Tim Ashe has easily taken out De La Fuente, who at this point just seems to be trying to run in every single state in the union.

Puerto Rico Senate Election (Class II): WORKER'S GAIN (CAUCUS WITH DEMOCRATS)
96% Reporting
Professor Rafael Riefkohl: 38.09%
State Senator José Power: 35.98%
State Senator José Rosa: 24.14%
Other: 1.81%

Riefkohl has been elected, and Power has conceded.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

polls have closed in the following states:

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

D.C. Senate Elections:

Class I: MIKE BROWN RE-ELECTED (CAUCUS WITH DEMOCRATS) (NO LONGER SHADOW SENATOR, TECHNICAL GAIN)
Class II: PAUL STRAUSS RE-ELECTED (NO LONGER SHADOW SENATOR, TECHNICAL GAIN)

South Carolina Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
54% Reporting
Congressman Arik Bjorn: 49.28%
Senator Tim Scott: 48.88%
Other: 1.91%

Still extremely close here.


Alabama Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
11% Reporting
Congresswoman Terri Sewell: 47.13%
Alabama Court Justice Tom Parker: 34.87%
Write-In: Coach Nick Saban: 14.02%
Other: 3.98%

This wasn't considered that close of a race until after the scandal, and Coach Nick Saban announced a write-in campaign. Tom Parker was the VP candidate for the Constitution party 2 years ago, and has been very controversial. It seems like this is another good break for Democrats in Alabama.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Let's take a look at some more senate elections:

Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal RE-ELECTED

Florida Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
4% Reporting
Representative Darren Soto: 55.38%
Senator Marco Rubio: 42.64%
Other: 1.98%

Kansas Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
5% Reporting
Representative James Thompson: 48.11%
Senator Jerry Moran: 45.19%
City Councilman Nich Schlossmacher: 5.44%
Other: 1.26%

Polls indicated this to be a good race for Republicans, but it appears to now be a very close race. We believe this may be one of the last races to be called tonight.

Missouri Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
2% Reporting
Fmr. Governor Jay Nixon: 54.33%
Senator Roy Blunt: 43.64%
Other: 2.03%

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan RE-ELECTED

Pennsylvania Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
10% Reporting
Governor Tom Wolf: 56.01%
Senator Pat Toomey: 41.82%
Other: 2.17%

Governor Wolf and Former Governor Nixon are far ahead right now, but not enough of the vote is in to say that they are sure to win. However, it is highly likely they will, from what we can tell.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

and now for the gubernatorial races:

Alabama Gubernatorial: Will Ainsworth ELECTED

Connecticut Gubernatorial: Ned Lamont RE-ELECTED

Florida Gubernatorial: Andrew Gillum RE-ELECTED

Illinois Gubernatorial: Daniel Biss ELECTED

Kansas Gubernatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
6% Reporting
Governor Laura Kelly: 51.08%
Fmr. State SOS Kris Kobach: 46.71%
Other: 2.21%

Maine Gubernatorial Election: Janet Mills RE-ELECTED

Maryland Gubernatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
11% Reporting
Fmr. NAACP President Ben Jealous: 54.44%
Lt. Governor Boyd Rutherford: 43.58%
Other: 1.98%

We'll be back after a short commercial break.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So what’s the Senate partisan makeup like right now?

Alright so my old election map was confusing me. Hopefully this one makes at least some sense.

Maroon: 2 Democrats already called or not up for election
Red: 1 Democrat and 1 Democrat caucusing Independent or Third Party
Pink: 1 Democrat and 1 Not closed/Not called
Light Blue: 1 Republican and 1 Not Closed/Not Called
Navy: 2 Republicans already called or not up for re-election
Green: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican already called or not up for re-election

Puerto Rico is left out on this because I couldn't think of what to do for 2 democrat-caucusing third party.

With this, and knowing who are the incumbents, this is the tally:
Democrats already called or not up for re-election (including those caucusing with Democrats: 61
Democrats not called: 2
Republicans already called or not up for re-election: 12
Republicans not called: 11
Polls not closed: 18 (of which 8 are Democrats and 10 are Republicans)

Not called doesn't mean it's too close to call, however.

This took way too long to figure out.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I'm pretty sure that James Smith is a senator, not a rep.

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[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Alright, we have some other senate calls:


Illinois Senate Election: Tammy Duckworth RE-ELECTED

Oklahoma Senate Election: James Lankford RE-ELECTED

Maryland Senate Election: Chris Van Hollen RE-ELECTED

Some "good" news tonight for Republicans, as they make their first hold of the night. However, it is much closer than in 2016.

We have other Senate race coverage right here:

Indiana Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
89% Reporting
State Senator Tim Lanane: 51.98%
Senator Todd Young: 45.94%
Other: 2.08%

Georgia Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
85% Reporting
Fmr. State Senator Jason Carter: 52.02%
Senator Johnny Isakson: 46.07%
Other: 1.91%

two good gains for Democrats. Let's take a look at the election map:



Democrats, including those caucusing with Democrats: 65 (+8)
Republicans: 13
Too close to call: 7
Polls not closed: 19

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Perfect TL, just hope Peyton runs for Senate!

Who?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

We have a projection from the Gubernatorial race in South Carolina...


South Carolina Gubernatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
98% Reporting
State Representative James Smith: 50.09%
Lt. Governor Pamela Evette: 47.93%
Other: 1.98%

Smith has won after a narrow loss back in 2018. He will be the first Democratic governor there in nearly 20 years.

Hold on, we're getting a call from Kentucky's Senate Election as well.

Kentucky Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
97% Reporting
Congresswoman Amy McGrath: 51.12%
Senator Rand Paul: 47.34%
Other: 1.54%

And we're getting our first reports from Arkansas:

Arkansas Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
1% Reporting
Mayor Mark Stodola: 49.55%
Senator John Boozman: 48.58%
Other: 1.87%

A close race, as expected.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Hold on, we're getting another call from South Carolina...

South Carolina Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
99% Reporting
Representative Arik Bjorn: 49.77%
Senator Tim Scott: 48.56%
Other: 1.67%

South Carolina has another progressive Democrat in the Senate! This state was considered extremely conservative just a few years ago, yet now appears to have shifted quite a bit to the left.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So why is America Commie now?

it's a nut timeline. Basically trump was garbage as president and lost bigly. However this wave was larger than expected, carrying democrats to a large majority. Sanders fulfills the majority of campaign promises, and manages to get a quite large favorability rating because of it. The massive scandal unearthed by AG Zephyr Teachout was a death blow to republicans in 2022, as most of the leadership knew, but tried to cover it up. Despite some republicans not knowing about the scandal, and possibly being the ones who would come out and tell if they did find out, all republicans are impacted heavily.


I know it's a stretch but it's a nut timeline who cares

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Arkansas Gubernatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
2% Reporting
Lt. Governor Tim Griffin: 50.37%
Fmr. State Rep Richard Carroll: 47.99%
Other: 1.64%

A surprisingly close race here. Carroll is well known for being one of very few state legislators elected as a Green. He served from 2008 to 2010, although he switched to the Democrats in 2009.

I for one do find it quite surprising, he pretty handily lost re-nomination in 2010, but is now doing pretty well in this election. We will see if he can make up the 2 point gap.

Texas Gubernatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
3% Reporting
Fmr. Rep. Beto O'Rourke 51.22%
Governor Greg Abbott: 47.12%
Other: 1.66%

Another very close race here, Abbott has been pretty popular, but his approvals have been slipping recently. Nonetheless, polls showed him ahead by 7-8 points. Beto O'Rourke has put up a hard fight here, and turnout seems to be very high in the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas, which O'Rourke will probably need to win convincingly.

9:00 is right around the corner, and we'll be right back with those closings.