N U T part 2: The Presidency of Bernie Sanders and the 2022 midterms

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So before I post the final recount results, I'll be posting maps of every state by congressional district, based on what party won. By request I will state the candidates and margins in certain races, if you wish.

So, let's start with Alabama.

01: R HOLD
02: R HOLD
03: D HOLD
04: R HOLD
05: D GAIN
06 D GAIN


Alaska-AL: D HOLD

do I really need to make a map for this?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Also, the HOLDs and GAINs are based on geographic proximity to old districts, not number.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The new congressional districts can be found here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295929.0

they aren't all done ofc

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Arizona:

01: D HOLD
02: R HOLD
03: D HOLD
04: D HOLD
05 (New district): TECHNICAL D GAIN
06: D HOLD
07: D HOLD
08: D HOLD
09: D GAIN
10: D HOLD

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

All AT-LARGE districts:

as already stated, Alaska is a D HOLD

Delaware AL: D HOLD

North Dakota AL: R HOLD

South Dakota AL: D GAIN

Vermont AL: D HOLD

Rhode Island AL: D HOLD

DC AL: Technical D GAIN

Wyoming AL: R HOLD

Current composition: 18 Democrats, 6 Republicans


Democrats have gained 6 seats so far.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Decided I'll be doing the regular maps here too.

Arkansas:



01: Safe R, 9.8% HVAP
02: Safe R 13.8% BVAP
03: Lean D 24.8% BVAP
04: Safe R 15.8% BVAP

Remember the ratings are from before the scandal broke.


(warning non atlas colors)


01: R HOLD
02: R HOLD
03: D HOLD
04: R HOLD

Composition: 19 D ], 9R

Colorado:
(this one's on the link from before)



01: D HOLD
02: D GAIN
03: D GAIN
04: D HOLD
05: D HOLD
06: D HOLD
07 (new district): TECHNICAL D GAIN
08: D HOLD

Composition: 27 D, 9R

Connecticut: (Already on the other link, all D holds)

Composition: 32 D, 9R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Georgia:



01: Lean D, 28.0% BVAP
02: Safe D, 47.4% BVAP, 4.2% HVAP
03: Likely R, 27.7% BVAP
04: Lean R, 28.9% BVAP
05: Lean D, 31.4% BVAP
06: Likely R, 18.4% BVAP
07: Safe D, 56.0% BVAP
08: Safe D, 51.9%
09: Safe D, 51.3%
10: Lean D, 18.1% BVAP, 10.4% HVAP
11: Lean D, 49.8% WVAP, 18.0% BVAP. 17.7% HVAP, 12.7% AVAP
12: Likely R, 12.9% BVAP, 10.2% HVAP
13: Safe R, 8.5% HVAP, 5.6% BVAP
14: Safe R, 9.1% HVAP, 6.5% BVAP

Majority minority



01: D HOLD
02: D HOLD
03: D GAIN
04: D GAIN*
05: D HOLD
06: R HOLD
07: D HOLD
08: D HOLD
09: D HOLD
10: D GAIN
11: D HOLD
12: R GAIN
13: R HOLD
14: R HOLD

*After recount

Composition
41 D(+12)
13 R

Hawaii: both D holds
43 D(+12)
13 R

Idaho:

01: Safe R
02: Likely R

Both R HOLDs
43 D(+12)
15 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Changed Andrew White to Beto O'Rourke

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Illinois: lost one district in the census.

Note: also remember these numbers are from 2010, and as such the minority numbers may be very different.



Chicago inset:


01: Likely D, 6.7% BVAP
02: Likely D, 15.7% HVAP, 4.5% BVAP, 3.9% AVAP
03: Safe D, 10.7% HVAP, 10.3% AVAP, 4.4% BVAP
04: Safe D, 17.3% HVAP, 8.3% BVAP, 8.1% AVAP
05: Safe D, 67.3% HVAP
06: Safe D, 15.9% HVAP, 9.9% AVAP, 8.7% BVAP
07: Safe D, 51.7% BVAP, 14.7% HVAP, 6.4% AVAP
08: Safe D, 51.4% BVAP, 10.6% HVAP
09: Safe D, 34.8% BVAP, 6.7% HVAP
10: Likely D, 11.8% HVAP, 9.2% AVAP, 4.0% BVAP
11: Likely D, 17.2% HVAP, 10.6% AVAP
12: Safe D, 22.3% HVAP, 10.3% BVAP, 4.7% AVAP
13: Lean R, 5.7% HVAP, 4.4% BVAP
14: Lean D, 8.2% BVAP, 4.5% AVAP
15: Likely R, 6.5% BVAP
16: Safe R, 4.3% BVAP
17: Lean D, 14.5% BVAP




ALL HOLDS, Illinois composition 15 D 2 R

58 D(+12)
17 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

by the way, guys, if you want an in-depth view of a house race I can give you the exact %s, candidates, and some backstory. I'm already doing SC-3 (map of SC coming "soon"), but you all can request a couple.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Indiana


01: Safe D, 67.8% WVAP
02: Lean R, 85.0% WVAP
03: Likely R, 87.6% WVAP
04: Tossup, 82.7% WVAP
05: Safe D, 64.5% WVAP
06: Safe R, 92.7% WVAP
07: Safe R, 93.4% WVAP
08: Likely R, 92.0% WVAP
09: Likely R, 90.4% WVAP

All HOLDs, 5-4 R

62D
22 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

01: Safe R, 83.5% WVAP
02: Lean D, 86.4% WVAP
03: Likely D, 76.8% WVAP
04: Tossup, 78.9% WVAP

All HOLDs, composition 3D 1R.

65 D
23 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Just letting y'all know this TL isn't dead, but I'm remaking the remaining maps because I have a new computer now, so I don't have the old ones.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Kentucky:



01: Safe R, 90.0% WVAP
02: Safe R, 90.7% WVAP
03: Safe R, 92.5% WVAP
04: Safe D, 73.5% WVAP
05: Tossup, 84.6% WVAP
06: Safe R, 96.6% WVAP


(non atlas colors)

All HOLDs 4R-2D

67 D
27 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Can somebody link part 1? I can't find it.

Here you go

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Decided to just continue on, but I will continue to post maps at regular intervals.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Louisiana:


01: Safe D, 52.7% BVAP, 37.1% WVAP
02: Safe R, 78.5% WVAP, 11.7% BVAP
03: Tossup, 59.0% WVAP, 35.3% BVAP
04: Safe R, 70.5% WVAP, 21.4% BVAP
05: Safe R, 73.1% WVAP, 21.9% BVAP
06: Lean R, 59.5% WVAP, 35.9% BVAP



(Non atlas color)
03: D GAIN

3D-3R

70 D
30 R

Massachusetts:


01: Safe D, 79.5% WVAP
02: Safe D, 84.6% WVAP
03: Safe D, 79.8% WVAP
04: Safe D, 79.0% WVAP
05: Safe D, 76.5% WVAP
06: Safe D, 53.7% WVAP, 17.8% BVAP, 15.7% HVAP
07: Safe D, 81.6% WVAP
08: Likely D, 84.6% WVAP
09: Safe D, 89.4% WVAP

ALL D HOLDS

9D-0R

79 D
30 R

Maryland:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/414578330151550976/584849402548453377/Screenshot_48.png

01: Safe R, 85.9% WVAP
02: Safe R, 79.4% WVAP
03: Safe D, 54.0% BVAP, 37.8% WVAP
04: Safe D, 62.7% WVAP
05: Likely D, 69.7% WVAP
06: Safe D, 54.9% BVAP, 36.4% WVAP
07: Safe D, 40.8% BVAP, 29.5% WVAP, 19.7% HVAP
08: Safe D, 55.7% WVAP, 15.3% AVAP, 15.1% HVAP, 11.7% BVAP

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/414578330151550976/584851781251629159/Screenshot_57.png

01: R GAIN

6D-2R

85 D
32 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Maine:


01: Safe D, 94.9% WVAP
02: Lean D, 96.3% WVAP

Both D Holds, 2D-0R

87 D
32 R


Michigan:


01: Likely R, 93.5% WVAP
02: Lean R, 90.6% WVAP
03: Likely D, 78.3% WVAP
04: Lean R, 82.4% WVAP
05: Tossup, 84.2% WVAP
06: Lean D, 84.3% WVAP
07: Lean D, 87.0% WVAP
08: Likely D, 80.0% WVAP
09: Safe D, 49.3% WVAP, 44.7% BVAP
10: Safe D, 54.1% BVAP, 35.0% WVAP
11: Lean D, 85.3% WVAP
12: Safe R, 92.1% WVAP
13: Tossup, 83.0% WVAP



Notable Races:
01: D HOLD (After Recount)
02: D GAIN

12D-1R

99 D
33 R

Minnesota


01: Tossup, 92.9% WVAP
02: Safe R, 94.1% WVAP
03: Likely R, 93.1% WVAP
04: Lean D, 86.5% WVAP
05: Lean D, 88.3% WVAP
06: Safe D, 78.1% WVAP
07: Safe D, 70.4% WVAP




01: D HOLD
03: R GAIN (after recount)

5D-2R

104 D
35 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Missouri:


01: Safe D, 47.6% WVAP, 45.3% BVAP
02: Lean D, 89.7% WVAP
03: Likely R, 90.3% WVAP
04: Safe R, 93.0% WVAP
05: Safe R, 92.5% WVAP
06: Safe R, 91.6% WVAP
07: Safe D, 68.6% WVAP
08: Likely R, 91.5% WVAP



Notable Races:
08: R GAIN

7R-3D

107 D
42 R


Mississippi:



01: Safe D, 56.1% BVAP, 40.3% WVAP
02: Likely R, 71.4% WVAP
03:Tossup, 58.9% WVAP
04: Safe R, 73.0% WVAP



Notable Races:
03: D HOLD

2R-2D


109 D
44 R

Montana:




01: Lean D, 91.2% WVAP
02: Safe R, 88.7% WVAP



Notable Races:
02: (Technical) R GAIN

1D-1R


110 D
45 R

Nebraska:


01: Likely R, 88.7% WVAP
02: Lean D, 76.9% WVAP
03: Safe R, 90.3% WVAP



Notable Races:
01: R HOLD (After Recount)
02: D HOLD

2R-1D


111 D
47 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Senate Recounts:

North Dakota
Pre-Recount:
Faith Spotted Eagle (D): 156,681
John Hoeven (R): 156,370
Kevin Cramer (IR): 67,216
Richard Shelatz (L): 7,313
Others, mostly write-in: 1,401

Post-Recount:
Faith Spotted Eagle (D): 156,698
John Hoeven (R): 156,398
Kevin Cramer (IR): 68,101
Richard Shelatz (L): 7,321
Others, mostly write-in: 1,099


Idaho:
Pre-Recount:
Mike Crapo (R): 238,597
Michelle Stennett (D): 234,110
Raul Labrador (IR): 154,180
Ray Writz (C): 59,887
W. Scott Howard (L): 10,938
Others, mostly write-in: 1,476

Post-Recount:
Mike Crapo (R): 239,700
Michelle Stennett (D): 237,666
Raul Labrador (IR): 154,988
Ray Writz (C): 60,091
W. Scott Howard (L): 10,991
Others, mostly write-in: 1,488

A large number of ballots were found in boxes hidden in Julia Davis park after a 6 year old boy happened upon them in some bushes near the Friendship Bridge. Exactly how they got there and why was unknown. Eventually it was found one of the local officials was attempting to rig the race in favor of Crapo, although he had no connection to his campaign at all. The votes were all counted and it was found that in the end his efforts did not matter. The official was arrested, and there's still a lot of controversy around the election, as some believe that there were more ballots hidden, but a search found no evidence of them, at least within Boise.

Alaska
Pre-Recount:
Lisa Murkowski (R): 163,902
Dennis Egan (D): 163,770
William Toien (L): 5,917
Others, mostly write-in: 702

Post-Recount:
Lisa Murkowski (R): 163,933
Dennis Egan (D): 163,791
William Toien (L): 5,922
Others, mostly write-in: 656

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Ok so my cpu is being a piece of garbage and not letting me load the congressional maps I spent hours and hours making. Great...

As such I'm just going to move on. I will continue with the maps when I can, but as of now I am just going to move on. Just know that Democrats have something like 340-350 seats in the house.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

US Senate (as of Jan. 21, 2023) [some senators have been changed to make things a bit more realistic]
AL:
Doug Jones and Terri Sewell
AK:
Lisa Murkowski and Ethan Berkowitz
AR:
Mike Beebe and Mark Stodola
AZ:
Kyrsten Sinema and Ruben Gallego
CA:
Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris
CO:
Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper
CT:
Richard Blumenthal and Chris Murphy
DE:
Tom Carper and Chris Coons
DC:
Mike Brown and Paul Strauss
FL:
Bill Nelson and Darren Soto
GA:
Lucy McBath and Jason Carter
HI:
Mazie Hirono and Brian Schatz
ID:
Mike Crapo and Jim Risch
IL:
Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth
IN:
Mike Braun and Tim Lanane
IA:
Cathy Glasson and J.D. Scholten
KS:
Roger Marshall and James Thompson
KY:
Amy McGrath and Rocky Adkins
LA:
Mitch Landrieu and John Bel Edwards
MA:
Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren
MD:
Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen
ME:
Angus King and Sara Gideon
MI:
Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters
MO:
Claire McCaskill and Jay Nixon
MS:
Roger Wicker and Cindy Hyde-Smith
MT:
Jon Tester and Steve Bullock
NC:
Anthony Foxx and Esther Manheimer
MN:
Tina Smith and Peggy Flanagan
ND:
Heidi Heitkamp and Faith Spotted Eagle
NE:
Deb Fischer and Kara Eastman
NH:
Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan
NJ:
Bob Menendez and Cory Booker
NM:
Tom Udall and Martin Heinrich
NV:
Catherine Cortez-Masto and Jacky Rosen
NY:
Kirsten Gillibrand and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
OH:
Sherrod Brown and Nina Turner
OK:
Jim Inhofe and James Lankford
OR:
Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley
PA:
Bob Casey Jr. and Tom Wolf
PR:
Carmen Yulín Cruz and Rafael Riefkohl
RI:
Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse
SC:
Jaime Harrison and Joe Cunningham
SD:
John Thune and Mike Rounds
TN:
Lamar Alexander and Phil Bredesen
TX:
Ted Cruz and Julian Castro
UT:
Mitt Romney and Jenny Wilson
VA:
Mark Warner and Tim Kaine
VT:
Patrick Leahy and Tim Ashe
WA:
Maria Cantwell and Pramila Jayapal
WI:
Tammy Baldwin and Russ Feingold
WV:
Joe Manchin and Richard Ojeda
WY:
Mike Enzi and John Barrasso

Map:

Key:
Red: 2 D Senators
Pink: 1 D Senator, 1 other caucusing D
Light Green: 1 R Senator, 1 other aucusing D
Green: 1 D Senator, 1 R Senator
Blue: 2 R Senators

(Puerto Rico not shown. Both Senators caucus with Ds)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Finally got DRA to work again so I'm posting the rest of the maps.

NV: (no way I was coloring in the mess that's Reno)


01: Lean R, 73.7% WVAP
02: Safe D, 40.6% HVAP, 35.3% WVAP, 14.8% BVAP
03: Likely D, 53.7% WVAP
04: Lean R, 71.3% WVAP

ALL D HOLDS, 4D-0R

115 D
47 R

NH

01: Likely D, 93.9% WVAP
02: Lean D, 93.2% WVAP

ALL D HOLDS, 2D-0R

117 D
47 R

NJ

01: Lean D, 69.7% WVAP
02: Safe D, 69.8% WVAP
03: Safe D, 63.8% WVAP
04: Safe R, 86.4% WVAP
05: Lean D, 73.5% WVAP
06: Safe D, 47.5% WVAP, 20.5% HVAP, 17.0% AVAP, 13.2% BVAP
07: Safe D, 47.6% HVAP, 30.7% WVAP, 10.8% AVAP
08: Safe D, 42.3% WVAP, 32.5% HVAP, 11.9% AVAP, 11.8% BVAP
09: Safe D, 48.6% BVAP, 27.3% WVAP, 16.7% HVAP
10: Lean D, 77.0% WVAP
11: Lean D, 74.4% WVAP
12: Tossup, 78.6% WVAP


ALL HOLDS, 11D-1R

128 D
48 R


Image sources: own work. Made with DRA 2.5 http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchappOld.html

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Jan 3 2023: New Senators are sworn in.

Jan 5 2023: Supreme Court announces they will hear a challenge to the AGHCA.

Jan 7 2023: President Sanders announces that the Supreme Court will be expanded to 11, his rationale for the number is to have it equal to the # of District Courts. The Judicial Procedures Reform Bill of 2023 is introduced by Senators Jayapal and Ocasio-Cortez in the Senate. Sanders also leaves open a possibility of pushing for staggered election of Justices.

Jan 8 2023: New Senate Minority Leader Cindy Hyde-Smith announces Republicans will filibuster any Sanders nominee. With only 17 senators, they aren't seen as a threat

Jan 28 2023: Leaked list of potential Supreme Court picks includes Sri Srinivasan, Goodwin Liu, Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. Hyde-Smith calls the JPRB a "blatant power grab"

Feb 1 2023: Date for oral arguments in Wyoming v. United States set to April 5.

Feb 3 2023: JPRB advanced by the Judiciary Committee narrowly. Moderate dissension makes supporters of the bill worried.

Feb 4 2023: Republican Sens and a roughly equal number of Democrats (mostly southern moderates) begin to filibuster the JPRB.

Feb 6 2023: Senate Maj. Leader Merkley presents Cloture on the JPRB.

Feb 7 2023: Cloture fails by one vote, 59-45.

Feb 10 2023: A second Cloture vote passes 60-44. Senator Sewell switched between the two votes. Final vote is called and the JPRB passes 60-44.

Feb 10 2023: Observers say that an 11 person court would be roughly split in the Wyoming V United States case, with 5 likely to be in favor of US and 5 in favor of Wyoming, with Breyer being the swing vote.

Feb 15 2023: Despite difficulties in the House Judiciary Committee, the JPRB passes it.

Feb 17 2023: Cloture invoked on the JPRB in the House and is passed without edits. President Sanders signs the bill and immediately announces his two nominees: Goodwin Liu and Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, two young CA Supreme Court Justices.

Feb 20 2023: Gallup poll finds that 55% want the AGHCA to continue unabated.

Mar 6 2023: Nomination hearings for Liu begin.

Mar 9 2023: Nomination hearings for Cuellar begin.

Mar 10 2023: Nomination hearings or Liu end.

Mar 14 2023: Nomination hearings for Cuellar end.

Mar 25 2023: Final vote for Liu: 65-38, 1 Present.

Mar 27 2023: Final vote for Cuellar: 64-40.

Mar 28 2023: Liu and Cuellar sworn in just over a week before the beginning of oral arguments in Wyoming v. United States.

Presidential Approval Rating
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 43%

Apr 5 2023: Arguments begin in the Wyoming v. United States case. Wyoming asserts that the requirement to provide a public insurance plan is unconstitutional.

Apr 10 2023: Education Secretary Chomsky announces his retirement. Sanders nominates Randi Weingarten, President of the AFT, to replace him.

Apr 18 2023: Weingarten is confirmed as Education Secretary by a vote of 83-21.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

remember, the ratings are for the 2022 races, not necessarily what they'd be in a neutral environment.

NM:


01: Safe D, 47.2% WVAP, 43% HVAP, 5% NVAP 3.4% BVAP
02: Safe D, 41.6% WVAP, 36.3% HVAP, 21.1% NVAP
03: Tossup, 47.6% HVAP, 47.4% WVAP, 2.9% NVAP

ALL D holds.

131 D
48 R

NY:


NYC inset:


01: Tossup, 80.1% WVAP
02: Lean D, 67.7% WVAP
03: Likely D, 61.3% WVAP
04: Lean D, 72.1% WVAP
05: Safe D, 42.6% AVAP, 28.2% WVAP, 20.6% BVAP
06: Safe D, 43.6% BVAP, 22% WVAP, 20.4% HVAP
07: Safe D, 66.7% BVAP
08: Likely D, 55.6% WVAP
09: Lean D, 63.8% WVAP
10: Safe D, 40.2% BVAP, 29.1% HVAP, 28.4% WVAP
11: Safe D, 41.4% HVAP, 33.4% WVAP, 15.8% AVAP
12: Safe D, 65.5% WVAP
13: Safe D, 36.8% HVAP, 34.5% WVAP, 27.5% BVAP
14: Safe D, 52.8% HVAP
15: Safe D, 45% HVAP, 38.7% BVAP
16: Safe D, 64.4% WVAP
17: Lean D, 71% WVAP
18: Lean D, 78.8% WVAP
19: Likely D, 83.8% WVAP
20: Tossup, 91.6% WVAP
21: Lean D, 90.7% WVAP
22: Likely D, 84.7% WVAP
23: Likely R, 93.7% WVAP
24: Safe D, 76.6% WVAP
25: Safe R, 91.6% WVAP
26: Safe D, 77.2% WVAP

Results:


NY-23: R GAIN

155 D
50 R

NC:


01: Tossup, 89.1% WVAP
02: Safe R, 81.5% WVAP
03: Safe D, 45.8% WVAP, 37.2% BVAP, 12.1% HVAP
04: Likely R, 77.7% WVAP
05: Safe R, 88.2% WVAP
06: Safe D, 59.3% WVAP
07: Safe R, 76.5% WVAP
08: Safe D, 47.2% WVAP, 42.9% BVAP, 6.7% HVAP
09: Lean D, 71% WVAP
10: Safe D, 64.6% WVAP
11: Tossup, 64.6% WVAP
12: Lean D, 49.1% WVAP, 32.5% BVAP, 10.4% NVAP, 7% HVAP, 2.1% AVAP
13: Lean R, 73.7% WVAP
14: Tossup, 67.7% WVAP

Results:

NC-01: D GAIN
NC-02: R GAIN
NC-04: R GAIN
NC-07: R GAIN
NC-09: D GAIN
NC-13: D GAIN (after recount)
NC-14: D GAIN
(all images are my own work made with https://davesredistricting.org/pages/index.html)

165 D
54 R