N U T part 2: The Presidency of Bernie Sanders and the 2022 midterms

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

N U T

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Arkansas Gubernatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
93% Reporting
Fmr. State Rep. Richard Carroll: 49.28%
Lt. Governor Tim Griffin: 49.11%
Other: 1.61%

This is an extremely close race here in Arkansas, but Carroll supporters have much to be hopeful about: the vast majority of remaining precincts are in Little Rock, which should give him a boost, but we aren't sure as of yet.

South Dakota Gubernatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
89% Reporting
Fmr. State Sen. Billie Sutton: 53.43%
Governor Kristi Noem: 44.93%
Other: 1.64%

Oklahoma Gubernatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
86% Reporting
State Rep. Chuck Hoskin: 54.88%
Governor Kevin Stitt: 43.59%
Other: 1.53%

Nebraska Gubernatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
78% Reporting
Lt. Governor Mike Foley: 49.36%
State Legislator Sue Crawford: 48.88%
Other: 1.76%

The Plains governors are falling one by one, but it is still too close in Nebraska, as their polls closed a bit later than the other two, so many areas are still at very little reporting.

And this is a big call we have right now:


Texas Gubernatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
98% Reporting
Fmr. Rep. Beto O'Rourke: 50.32%
Governor Greg Abbott: 48.07%
Other: 1.61%

The main areas left to report are mostly in El Paso and the most rural counties. These votes are likely to balance each other out, and we don't see Abbott making up the difference.

[Politician]

Why is Rhode Island in grey? Also, AZ should be in light red. Great TL!

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Well, it's midnight now, meaning all of Alaska has closed except the very small Aleutians East Borough, and the Aleutians West Census Area. that will be closing at 1 AM.


We don't have results from there quite yet, of course.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

well, we can finally call the Arkansas Gubernatorial Race:

Arkansas Gubernatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
96% Reporting
Fmr. State Rep. Richard Carroll: 51.24%
Lt. Governor Tim Griffin: 47.18%
Other: 1.58%

we're also getting our first reports from the Alaska races.

Alaska Gubernatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
2% Reporting
State Assemblyman Jim Sykes: 50.24%
Fmr. Representative Don Young: 47.53%
Other: 2.33%

Alaska Senatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
2% Reporting
State Sen. Dennis Egan: 49.25%
Senator Lisa Murkowski: 48.73%
Other: 2.02%

I'm quite surprised at how close the Senate race is. With the other results from tonight, you'd think Egan would be running away with it.

Yes, but Murkowski is still very popular. We'll have to see how it turns out in the end, only 2% of precincts are reporting right now, so these results could easily change.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

12:31 AM


Well, we have a projection to make in two races.

Nebraska Gubernatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
96% Reporting
State Legislator Sue Crawford: 50.63%
Lt. Governor Mike Foley: 47.61%
Other: 1.76%

Louisiana Senatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN (NO RUNOFF)
91% Reporting
Fmr. Governor John Bel Edwards: 53.23%
Senator John N. Kennedy: 23.69%
Fmr. State Rep. David Duke: 15.05%
Other: 8.03%

Bel Edwards looks like he's avoiding a runoff here. Meanwhile Duke has surged to his highest point tonight, right after all of LaSalle and Livingston parishes just reported. These areas were very strong for Duke back in 1991, and appear to still be so. In fact, he has narrowly taken a plurality in LaSalle parish by a margin of 12 votes.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

1:23 AM

We have a crucial race update in North Dakota, Utah, and Idaho.

North Dakota Senatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
98% Reporting
Activist Faith Spotted Eagle: 40.43%
Senator John Hoeven: 39.75%
Write-in: Fmr. Rep. Kevin Cramer: 17.45%
Other: 2.37%

An extremely close race here, Faith Spotted Eagle up by around 2000 here, but the remaining precincts are in extremely Republican areas.

Utah Senatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC/JUSTICE GAIN
97% Reporting
Fmr. County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson: 36.32%
Write-in: Fmr. Representative Mia Love: 33.22%
Senator Mike Lee: 27.59%
Other: 2.87%

At this point, it is mathematically impossible for Republicans to win. Just under 3%
 of precincts are left to report, and if all remaining votes were for Love, she would fall around .15%
 of the vote away from Wilson. That is highly unlikely to happen.

Idaho Senatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
82% Reporting
Senator Mike Crapo: 33.35%
State Sen. Min. Leader Michelle Stennett: 33.18%
Write in: Fmr. Representative Raul Labrador: 22.95%
Mr. Ray Writz: 8.54%
Other: 1.98%

This is extremely close here. The right wing is split tremendously between three candidates, but Crapo has pulled ahead. About a third of Boise has yet to report, but many precincts outside of the city are extremely Republican. This will come down to the wire.




Democratic Caucus: 87 (+19)
Democrat: 75
Independent: 2
Popular Democrat: 1
Justice: 1*
Progressive: 1
Worker's: 1
*Justice member is also part of Democratic party, but is labeled as Justice here to have more third parties

Republican: 14

Too close to call: 3
Not closed: 0

[Continential]

What's the point of the VT Progressive Party when the Democratic Party is so Progressive and I'm sure there will be something like the ND-NPL or the MN-DFL

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

changed SD for Billie Sutton to run again and this time win.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

1:58 AM

The last precincts in North Dakota just reported, we can finally call the race.

North Dakota Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN (RECOUNT)
100% Reporting
Activist Faith Spotted Eagle: 40.28%
Senator John Hoeven: 40.20%
Write-in:Fmr. Rep. Kevin Cramer: 17.28%
Other: 2.24%

By a razor thin margin of 311 votes, Native activist Faith Spotted Eagle, who was a key figure in the Dakota Access Pipeline protests and received an electoral vote in 2016, has won the Senate Election.

2:18 AM

Alaska Gubernatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC/GREEN GAIN
68% Reporting
State Assemblyman Jim Sykes: 53.18%
Fmr. Representative Don Young: 44.56%
Other: 2.26%


The founder of the Alaskan Green Party, Jim Sykes, has handily won the Alaska Gubernatorial Election. Much of Anchorage is still out, and that's generally good Democrat territory.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

And with that call in Alaska, we have our Gubernatorial map, barring any surprisingly strong margins in absentees.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

3:33 AM
We can call the race in Idaho...
Idaho Senate Election: REPUBLICAN HOLD(RECOUNT)
99% Reporting
Senator Mike Crapo: 34.03%
State Sen Min. Leader Michelle Stennett: 33.39%
Write-in:Fmr. Rep. Raul Labrador: 21.99%
Mr. Ray Writz: 8.54%
Other: 2.05%

Despite being heavily implicated in the scandals, Mike Crapo appears to have won the Idaho senate race. This is still in recount territory, but it is unlikely one would change anything.
4:43 AM

Alright, we have our final call in Alaska, and a disappointing one for Democrats in an otherwise great night, although a recount could flip this race.

Alaska Senate Election: REPUBLICAN HOLD (RECOUNT)
99% Reporting
Senator Lisa Murkowski: 49.04%
State Senator Dennis Egan: 48.98%
Other: 1.98%


There's only one precinct left to report, which is on the tiny island of Diomede. Even if the precinct went 100% for Egan he wouldn't pull ahead. We expect that to come in any minute now...

4:58 AM
We have that final precinct coming in now, and it seems to have narrowed the race slightly.

Alaska Senate Election: REPUBLICAN HOLD (RECOUNT)
100% Reporting
Senator Lisa Murkowski: 49.03%
State Senator Dennis Egan: 48.99%
Other: 1.98%

132 votes are deciding this race, we expect a lengthy recount battle here.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So before I post the final recount results, I'll be posting maps of every state by congressional district, based on what party won. By request I will state the candidates and margins in certain races, if you wish.

So, let's start with Alabama.

01: R HOLD
02: R HOLD
03: D HOLD
04: R HOLD
05: D GAIN
06 D GAIN


Alaska-AL: D HOLD

do I really need to make a map for this?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Also, the HOLDs and GAINs are based on geographic proximity to old districts, not number.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The new congressional districts can be found here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295929.0

they aren't all done ofc

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Arizona:

01: D HOLD
02: R HOLD
03: D HOLD
04: D HOLD
05 (New district): TECHNICAL D GAIN
06: D HOLD
07: D HOLD
08: D HOLD
09: D GAIN
10: D HOLD

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

All AT-LARGE districts:

as already stated, Alaska is a D HOLD

Delaware AL: D HOLD

North Dakota AL: R HOLD

South Dakota AL: D GAIN

Vermont AL: D HOLD

Rhode Island AL: D HOLD

DC AL: Technical D GAIN

Wyoming AL: R HOLD

Current composition: 18 Democrats, 6 Republicans


Democrats have gained 6 seats so far.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Decided I'll be doing the regular maps here too.

Arkansas:



01: Safe R, 9.8% HVAP
02: Safe R 13.8% BVAP
03: Lean D 24.8% BVAP
04: Safe R 15.8% BVAP

Remember the ratings are from before the scandal broke.


(warning non atlas colors)


01: R HOLD
02: R HOLD
03: D HOLD
04: R HOLD

Composition: 19 D ], 9R

Colorado:
(this one's on the link from before)



01: D HOLD
02: D GAIN
03: D GAIN
04: D HOLD
05: D HOLD
06: D HOLD
07 (new district): TECHNICAL D GAIN
08: D HOLD

Composition: 27 D, 9R

Connecticut: (Already on the other link, all D holds)

Composition: 32 D, 9R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Georgia:



01: Lean D, 28.0% BVAP
02: Safe D, 47.4% BVAP, 4.2% HVAP
03: Likely R, 27.7% BVAP
04: Lean R, 28.9% BVAP
05: Lean D, 31.4% BVAP
06: Likely R, 18.4% BVAP
07: Safe D, 56.0% BVAP
08: Safe D, 51.9%
09: Safe D, 51.3%
10: Lean D, 18.1% BVAP, 10.4% HVAP
11: Lean D, 49.8% WVAP, 18.0% BVAP. 17.7% HVAP, 12.7% AVAP
12: Likely R, 12.9% BVAP, 10.2% HVAP
13: Safe R, 8.5% HVAP, 5.6% BVAP
14: Safe R, 9.1% HVAP, 6.5% BVAP

Majority minority



01: D HOLD
02: D HOLD
03: D GAIN
04: D GAIN*
05: D HOLD
06: R HOLD
07: D HOLD
08: D HOLD
09: D HOLD
10: D GAIN
11: D HOLD
12: R GAIN
13: R HOLD
14: R HOLD

*After recount

Composition
41 D(+12)
13 R

Hawaii: both D holds
43 D(+12)
13 R

Idaho:

01: Safe R
02: Likely R

Both R HOLDs
43 D(+12)
15 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Changed Andrew White to Beto O'Rourke

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Illinois: lost one district in the census.

Note: also remember these numbers are from 2010, and as such the minority numbers may be very different.



Chicago inset:


01: Likely D, 6.7% BVAP
02: Likely D, 15.7% HVAP, 4.5% BVAP, 3.9% AVAP
03: Safe D, 10.7% HVAP, 10.3% AVAP, 4.4% BVAP
04: Safe D, 17.3% HVAP, 8.3% BVAP, 8.1% AVAP
05: Safe D, 67.3% HVAP
06: Safe D, 15.9% HVAP, 9.9% AVAP, 8.7% BVAP
07: Safe D, 51.7% BVAP, 14.7% HVAP, 6.4% AVAP
08: Safe D, 51.4% BVAP, 10.6% HVAP
09: Safe D, 34.8% BVAP, 6.7% HVAP
10: Likely D, 11.8% HVAP, 9.2% AVAP, 4.0% BVAP
11: Likely D, 17.2% HVAP, 10.6% AVAP
12: Safe D, 22.3% HVAP, 10.3% BVAP, 4.7% AVAP
13: Lean R, 5.7% HVAP, 4.4% BVAP
14: Lean D, 8.2% BVAP, 4.5% AVAP
15: Likely R, 6.5% BVAP
16: Safe R, 4.3% BVAP
17: Lean D, 14.5% BVAP




ALL HOLDS, Illinois composition 15 D 2 R

58 D(+12)
17 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

by the way, guys, if you want an in-depth view of a house race I can give you the exact %s, candidates, and some backstory. I'm already doing SC-3 (map of SC coming "soon"), but you all can request a couple.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Indiana


01: Safe D, 67.8% WVAP
02: Lean R, 85.0% WVAP
03: Likely R, 87.6% WVAP
04: Tossup, 82.7% WVAP
05: Safe D, 64.5% WVAP
06: Safe R, 92.7% WVAP
07: Safe R, 93.4% WVAP
08: Likely R, 92.0% WVAP
09: Likely R, 90.4% WVAP

All HOLDs, 5-4 R

62D
22 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

01: Safe R, 83.5% WVAP
02: Lean D, 86.4% WVAP
03: Likely D, 76.8% WVAP
04: Tossup, 78.9% WVAP

All HOLDs, composition 3D 1R.

65 D
23 R

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Just letting y'all know this TL isn't dead, but I'm remaking the remaining maps because I have a new computer now, so I don't have the old ones.