Do you think Erdogan ...

[Tender Branson]

I think it is possible.

He's currently polling somewhere between 40-48% in the first round and barely tops 50% in runoff polls.

[President Johnson]

No, I can't imagine this. I expect him to win with about 51% again. An if he somehow doesn't win, he makes it a win.

[DavidB.]

No, I can't imagine this. I expect him to win with about 51% again. An id he somehow doesn't win, he makes it a win.

[Tender Branson]

No, I can't imagine this. I expect him to win with about 51% again. An id he somehow doesn't win, he makes it a win.

That's unclear. We need to wait what the 1st round results are like. If he only ends up at ~45%, I'd say there's a fairly good chance he could be ousted in the runoff - if all other parties/candidates back the runner-up (most likely Ince, who's gaining a lot recently).

[ON Progressive]

I have no expectations of Turkish voters doing anything right at this point, so no.

[DavidB.]

Literally no reason to assume this will lead to a different result than the referendum.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I have no expectations of Turkish voters doing anything right at this point, so no.

[BBD]

I think Muharrem Ince has a real chance. Aksener and Demirtas have both promised to coalesce around him if he's the runner-up in the runoff, which seems rather likely, especially because he's been given a lot more media attention than the former (strategic on Tayyip's part - he thinks he'll have an easier time with Ince, though it has a good likelihood of backfiring) and obviously the latter, who remains imprisoned. Ince is certainly more charismatic than Aksener and is on par with Demirtas in that regard. His rallies and social media presence have been pretty remarkable, to say the least, and his interviews with government bobble-head journalists have gone viral. If Aksener does somehow win the runoff, though, I'm not exactly sure if the HDP will coalesce around her. However, despite their differences, she has, along with the rest of the opposition, called for Demirtas' release, which shows that the opposition is more united than it's ever been in the past few years. The opposition needs to stay strong, remain united, remain vigilant, and fight back fiercely against the crooked tactics that Tayyip and his cronies are cooking up. For the sake of Turkey, I hope that things do work out and voters successfully boot the phony little Sultan off his throne of lies.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I have no expectations of Turkish voters doing anything right at this point, so no.

[mvd10]

As if this will be a fair election lol. Yeltsin 'won', so Erdogan will 'win' too even if he doesn't win (if you get what I mean).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'd say there's about 25% chance of him being ousted. Erdogan has never got 50% of the vote in his career (so that might be a benefit if the opposition can truly rally around Ince), Ince is a better candidate than Aksener and the opposition is not as bought off/repressed as, say, the Venezuelan opposition. It would be great if Turkey were to follow the example of Malaysia.

[jaichind]

I would say even if Erdogan does not get above 50% of the vote in the first round, as long as AKP-MHP gets close to 50% in the parliamentary election on the same day which should be enough for a majority there will be pressure for  Erdogan to win in the second round from a stability point of view as well as lower turnout by the anti-Erdogan vote discouraged by the AKP-MHP majority should see Erdogan through. 

The way to take down Erdogan is a significant under-performance by Erdogan and  AKP-MHP on  June 24.  Totally possible.  Just unlikely.