Lucky star states in US presidential elections

[Plankton5165]

What are some states in some elections that a presidential candidate would be "lucky" to have won?

For a Trump state, I would say Michigan, not West Virginia.

[Plankton5165]

I'm talking about past lucky star states in past elections.

[Plankton5165]

What about the first state to be called for Bill Clinton in 1992, Georgia?

[David T]

Harry Truman was very lucky to carry Illinois in 1948.  He probably could not have done so if Henry Wallace had been on the ballot in the state.  In other words, Republican Governor Dwight Green and the Republican-controlled state legislature, by providing for easier ballot access, could probably have enabled Dewey to carry the state.

That's my concept of a "lucky" state--not simply one that you carry narrowly, but one that you wouldn't have carried at all if not for some unexpected development beyond your control.

[David T]

Another example is Florida 2000.  If Elian Gonzalez had drowned--or if his mother had made it to Florida or had simply stayed in Cuba--Gore IMO would have carried the state by a sufficient margin that hanging chads, recounts, etc. would be irrelevant.

[David T]

The classic example of a "lucky" state:  New York for Cleveland in 1884.  Samuel Burchard's "rum, Romanism, and rebellion" plus rainy weather in Republican areas of Upstate New York plus the Delmonico's dinner plus Conkling evidently undermining Blaine in Stalwart strongholds...

[David T]

Jimmy Carter had two strokes of luck in New York in 1976: First, the FORD TO CITY:  DROP DEAD headline, and second, Eugene McCarthy being kept off the ballot...

[David T]

Ronald Reagan narrowly carried Arkansas in 1980--it was then one of the most Democratic states in the South, and had gone for Carter over Ford by 65-35 in 1976--mainly because of the decision to house Cuban refugees at Fort Chafee (some of them rioted).  The same decision also resulted in the defeat of Governor Bill Clinton...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dubya, 2000, NH was the deciding state, because Gore could have won without FL and Jean Shaheen was governor. If Graham was the nominee he could have helped in either state.

Dubya 2004, it was Ohio, Edwards was weaker Veep than expected, and Gephardt could have carried more union voters in Ohio for Kerry.

1976, WI carried the day for Carter

1960, it was IL which carried the day for JFK

[David T]

Carter could have won without Wisconsin in November 1976 as long as he carried Ohio.  On the other hand, his narrow victory in the Wisconsin primary over Udall may have been essential to his winning the nomination...

[Plankton5165]

WI sent Trump to the White House, even with a poll saying he was losing that state by 15 points in September 2016.

Wait a minute, he was losing WI by 17 points in a poll in September 2016.

A poll after the convention originally said he was losing Wisconsin by 20 points.

[twenty42]

WI sent Trump to the White House, even with a poll saying he was losing that state by 15 points in September 2016.

Wait a minute, he was losing WI by 17 points in a poll in September 2016.

A poll after the convention originally said he was losing Wisconsin by 20 points.

The moment FNC called WI for Trump is still surreal to watch almost two years later.