MD- Gonzales Research: Hogan +11,+14,+18

[IceSpear]

Objectively this race seems likely R, but it also seems like exactly the type of race that everyone assumes is safe early on then causes a shocker on election night. In other words, I can't shake the feeling that Hogan could very well be Hogan'd. Or at least gets a huge scare. He's hovering around 50%, it's still early, and Dems have yet to get a nominee and attempt to consolidate their base. Even if the wave nationwide is not as big as expected, Dem enthusiasm will be sky high in Maryland.

Of course it's also possible that Hogan unceremoniously crushes whoever his opponent is by double digits. But he has another big problem that Charlie Baker doesn't: a very large minority vote.

[IceSpear]

Blue wave or not, moderates like Hogan get elected, just like in CT and RI can go GOP, as well.

In 2006 (the last Democratic wave election), CT re-elected their Republican with 63% of the vote, and Vermont re-elected their Republican with 56% of the vote.

Hogan can win in 2018 if he plays his cards right.

Hogan can win, but it will be harder than in CT/VT due to the very large minority vote.