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September 17, 2019, 06:05:26 pm
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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, Speaker YE)
  Current 2020 map based on Morning Consult tracking
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Author Topic: Current 2020 map based on Morning Consult tracking  (Read 6337 times)
eric82oslo
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« Reply #100 on: July 05, 2019, 04:08:44 pm »

WI is D+2 state and OH is R+3 state, this map shows that Trump doesnt have a chance

This map is actually extremely generous towards Trump as it also includes his honey moon period of the first 4 to 6 months in office when he had a positive job approval in almost every state. If you read the beginning of this thread, you will see that several posters heavily criticised me for including his honey moon period as they considered it totally irrelevant and thus conflating Trump's numbers by a lot. I personally think I've struck the right balance. I want to be objective by including all numbers, not just a selective number of them.

It would be possible to

(1) dump the earliest months as they are no longer relevant, or
(2) use only he latest six months.

Obviously the most relevant polls before the election itself will be those that appear closest to the election itself.  Barring a 9/11-style event that he handles at least somewhat properly, he will never get anywhere near his 'honeymoon' numbers.

I know, but on the other side: People who don't already disapprove of Trump's performance by now - unless some major changes occur, will either vote for him or vote for a third party. Incumbent presidents always do at least somewhat better than their latest approval numbers would suggest.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #101 on: July 05, 2019, 04:27:01 pm »
« Edited: July 05, 2019, 05:11:36 pm by eric82oslo »

I don't want to speak too soon, but it's almost like the Midwest is waking up out of its stupid coma

Political interest has skyrocketed after Trump became president - which we saw in 2018 which had almost presidential level turnout - and if there's one thing high turnout is a sign of, it's a really strong showing for the Democratic party, as young voters and minorities who historically are not voting at high rates, are often staunchly Democratic if they only bother to vote.

Much of the reason Trump managed to eke out victories in a handful of Midwestern states was due to abysmal turnout rates amoung youngsters and minorities who really couldn't care less. Now however they will care, cause they've witnessed first hand what atrocious damages Trump has been able to inflict upon the country and the rest of the world in such a short time.
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« Reply #102 on: July 05, 2019, 05:37:54 pm »

MC's numbers are trash, before the 2018 midterms their numbers had Trumps approval 4 to 6% lower in states like Ohio and Wisconsin than the exit polls did.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #103 on: July 05, 2019, 05:42:20 pm »

MC's numbers are trash, before the 2018 midterms their numbers had Trumps approval 4 to 6% lower in states like Ohio and Wisconsin than the exit polls did.

It's interesting since most other pollsters like Gallup and so on always give Democrats an advantage of 5-15% stronger than what Morning Consult does. The only pollster which consistantly is more pro-Republican than Morning Consult is in fact Rasmussen Reports.
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« Reply #104 on: July 06, 2019, 08:15:12 pm »

MC's numbers are trash, before the 2018 midterms their numbers had Trumps approval 4 to 6% lower in states like Ohio and Wisconsin than the exit polls did.

It's interesting since most other pollsters like Gallup and so on always give Democrats an advantage of 5-15% stronger than what Morning Consult does. The only pollster which consistantly is more pro-Republican than Morning Consult is in fact Rasmussen Reports.

I'm not sure I would say only Rasmussen is more pro GOP than MC, YouGov's and NBC/WSJ poll numbers generally tend to be better for the GOP than MC.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #105 on: August 06, 2019, 12:25:23 am »

Not all that big changes in Morning Consult's state approval numbers for July, but two things strike as rather important. For the first time since Trump was inaugurated, Vermont is now ranked as the least Trump-friendly state, ever so slightly surpassing Hawaii. Also, four red, Republican states showed their worst Trump approval ever in July 2019; Arizona (-7%), Alaska (-2%!), Nebraska (-1%) and Wyoming (+21%), all western or semi-western states interestingly enough.

Nevada keeps moving closer to Pennsylvania every month now. If current trends continue, Pennsylvania will overtake Nevada to become the tipping point state in only four more months. (New Mexico could also overtake Michigan in six months or so.)







No changes in the EV count this month:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till July 2019:

1. D.C.: -1744

















2. Vermont: -839
3. Hawaii: -837
4. Massachusetts: -814


5. Maryland: -737
6. California: -700


7. Washington: -646

8. Rhode Island: -587

9. Connecticut: -546
10. Oregon: -539
11. Illinois: -533
12. New York: -527


13. New Jersey: -439
14. Minnesota: -419

15. New Hampshire: -388
16. Delaware: -359

17. Colorado: -346
18. Wisconsin: -335
19. Michigan: -305

20. New Mexico: -294

21. Maine: -246
22. Iowa: -224


23. Pennsylvania: -140
24. Nevada: -133 (tipping point!)

25. Virginia: -98
26. Ohio: -60


27. Arizona: -17


28. North Carolina: +48


29. Florida: +92

30. Utah: +113
31. Georgia: +120

32. Indiana: +175
33. Missouri: +179
34. Nebraska: +190

35. Kansas: +213
36. Texas: +216
37. Montana: +220
38. North Dakota: +236


39. Alaska: +304
40. South Carolina: +348

41. South Dakota: +367

42. Arkansas: +403

43. Kentucky: +479
44. Idaho: +482
45. Oklahoma: +483

46. Tennessee: +513

47. Mississippi: +581

48. Louisiana: +607


49. West Virginia: +721

50. Alabama: +785



51. Wyoming: +904
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #106 on: August 06, 2019, 07:48:52 am »

It isn't an implausible map if Dems have an extremely strong message in the Midwest.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #107 on: August 06, 2019, 09:24:10 am »

All their numbers make sense except Virginia, which is probably closer to -10 or so.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #108 on: August 06, 2019, 11:26:37 am »

It isn't an implausible map if Dems have an extremely strong message in the Midwest.

Count on Yang to give that message. Wink The economic message of a Yang/Warren ticket would be killer and transformational in the rust belt region.
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MT #Populist
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« Reply #109 on: August 06, 2019, 11:35:16 am »

Lol, Iím sure TX and GA are Likely R, FL Lean R, VA Lean D, and AZ a Tossup if IA is Likely D and OH Lean D. This is nonsense, and Morning Consult numbers should be ignored.

Edit: IA voting to the left of PA? lmao, into the trash it goes.
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« Reply #110 on: August 06, 2019, 11:49:43 am »

Lol, Iím sure TX and GA are Likely R, FL Lean R, VA Lean D, and AZ a Tossup if IA is Likely D and OH Lean D. This is nonsense, and Morning Consult numbers should be ignored.

Edit: IA voting to the left of PA? lmao, into the trash it goes.
"I don't like the results the poll is presenting, therefore it is junk/an outlier."

It is absolutely believable that Trump has a negative approval in IA and OH, and lower than in TX.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #111 on: August 06, 2019, 12:01:20 pm »

Trump just having a balanced approval rating in Nebraska is pretty interesing, if true ...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #112 on: August 06, 2019, 12:09:33 pm »

Trump just having a balanced approval rating in Nebraska is pretty interesting, if true ...

Trump would lose NE-02 (greater Omaha) and put NE-01 (eastern Nebraska, especially Lincoln, outside of Greater Omaha).

Morning Consult: net approval, July 2019



Net approval for Trump

+10 or higher
+5 to +9
+2 to +4
+1 to -1 (white)
-2 to -4
-5 to -9
-10 or higher
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #113 on: August 08, 2019, 01:12:59 am »
« Edited: August 13, 2019, 05:58:34 pm by eric82oslo »

One potential way of predicting swings could be to compare the final results of the 2016 election with current polling in each of those states on Trump's job approval. Using the net approval however can be tricky due to most states usually voting in a more partisan way than what polls in advance are predicting. Thus I thought I would compare each state instead by looking at how the ranking of states from most Democratic to most Republican has changed over the past 2 years and 7 months.

So here is the Morning Consult ranking of states based on Trump's approval during his first 31 months in office, with the changes from the 2016 presidential election in parenthesis:

1. Washington D.C. (no change)
2. Vermont (+4)
3. Hawaii (-1)
4. Massachusetts (no change)
5. Maryland (no change)
6. California (-3)
7. Washington (+2)
8. Rhode Island (+2)
9. Connecticut (+3)
10. Oregon (+4)
11. Illinois (-3)
12. New York (-5)
13. New Jersey (-2)
14. Minnesota (+6)
15. New Hampshire (+6)
16. Delaware (-3)
17. Colorado (no change)
18. Wisconsin (+6)
19. Michigan (+3)
20. New Mexico (-5)
21. Maine (-3)
22. Iowa (+9)
23. Pennsylvania (no change)
24. Nevada (-5)
25. Virginia (-9)
26. Ohio (+3)
27. Arizona (-1)
28. North Carolina (-1)
29. Florida (-4)
30. Utah (+5)
31. Georgia (-3)
32. Indiana (+5)
33. Missouri (+3)
34. Nebraska (+7)
35. Kansas (+5)
36. Texas (-6)
37. Montana (+2)
38. North Dakota (+10)
39. Alaska (-6)
40. South Carolina (-8)
41. South Dakota (+4)
42. Arkansas (+1)
43. Kentucky (+5)
44. Idaho (+3)
45. Oklahoma (+4)
46. Tennessee (-4)
47. Mississippi (-13)
48. Louisiana (-10)
49. West Virginia (+1)
50. Alabama (-6)
51. Wyoming (no change)

As we see, the biggest ranking changes have occurred in Mississippi (by far), Louisiana and North Dakota.


These ranking changes thus give us this trend map 2020:



It looks like most of the north - with a few exceptions - is rapidly trending Democratic, while almost the entire south - from Hawaii and California in the west, to Florida and Virginia in the east - is trending Republican. The northeast and larger D.C. area are perhaps the two regions with the least changes overall, with trends going all over the place. The region which is most firmly trending Democratic, is the agricultural Great Plains states around Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and Minnesota, while the region most clearly trending Republican are the Deep South states with tons of African Americans, which could explain the stubborn blueness of supposed purple states like Texas, Florida and Georgia too.


For color explanations:

Green: No change
30% shade: 1 place up/down on ranking
40%: 2 places
50%: 3 places
60%: 4 places
70%: 5 places
80%: 6 places
90%: 7 places or more
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #114 on: August 08, 2019, 01:49:26 pm »

One potential way of predicting swings could be to compare the final results of the 2016 election with current polling in each of those states on Trump's job approval. Using the net approval however can be tricky due to most states usually voting in a more partisan way than what polls in advance are predicting. Thus I thought I would compare each state instead by looking at how the ranking of states from most Democratic to most Republican has changed over the past 2 years and 7 months.

So here is the Morning Consult ranking of states based on Trump's approval during his first 31 months in office, with the changes from the 2016 presidential election in parenthesis:

1. Washington D.C. (no change)
2. Vermont (+4)
3. Hawaii (-1)
4. Massachusetts (no change)
5. Maryland (no change)
6. California (-3)
7. Washington (+2)
8. Rhode Island (+2)
9. Connecticut (+3)
10. Oregon (+4)
11. Illinois (-3)
12. New York (-5)
13. New Jersey (-2)
14. Minnesota (+6)
15. New Hampshire (+6)
16. Delaware (-3)
17. Colorado (no change)
18. Wisconsin (+6)
19. Michigan (+3)
20. New Mexico (-5)
21. Maine (-3)
22. Iowa (+9)
23. Pennsylvania (no change)
24. Nevada (-5)
25. Virginia (-9)
26. Ohio (+3)
27. Arizona (-1)
28. North Carolina (-1)
29. Florida (-4)
30. Utah (+5)
31. Georgia (-3)
32. Indiana (+5)
33. Missouri (+3)
34. Nebraska (+7)
35. Kansas (+5)
36. Texas (-6)
37. Montana (+2)
38. North Dakota (+10)
39. Alaska (-6)
40. South Carolina (-8)
41. South Dakota (+4)
42. Arkansas (+1)
43. Kentucky (+5)
44. Idaho (+3)
45. Oklahoma (+4)
46. Tennessee (-4)
47. Mississippi (-13)
48. Louisiana (-10)
49. West Virginia (+1)
50. Alabama (-6)
51. Wyoming (no change)

As we see, the biggest ranking changes have occurred in Mississippi (by far), Louisiana and North Dakota.


These ranking changes thus give us this trend map 2020:



It looks like most of the north - with a few exceptions - is rapidly trending Democratic, while almost the entire south - from Hawaii and California in the west, to Florida and Virginia in the east - is trending Republican. The northeast and larger D.C. area are perhaps the two regions with the least changes overall, with trends going all over the place. The region which is most firmly trending Democratic, is the agricultural Great Plains states around Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and Minnesota, while the region most clearly trending Republican are the Deep South states with tons of African American, which could explain the stubborn blueness of supposed purple states like Texas, Florida and Georgia too.


For color explanations:

Green: No change
30% shade: 1 place up/down on ranking
40%: 2 places
50%: 3 places
60%: 4 places
70%: 5 places
80%: 6 places
90%: 7 places or more

If these swings materialize on election day, then the Great Lakes region will have a Democratic PVI in 2020
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #115 on: September 05, 2019, 09:39:05 pm »
« Edited: September 05, 2019, 09:47:01 pm by eric82oslo »

Another month - the 32nd so far - and another set of states with their worst Trump approval ever - 7 this time; California (-30), Washington (-30), New York (-24), Colorado (-18), the still tipping point state of Nevada (-14!), Montana (+/-0) and Wyoming (+21).

If this month's trends continue, it means that Pennsylvania will overtake Nevada to become the tipping point state next month. Also next month Ohio is expected to overtake Iowa in tipping point stature, becoming the 4th most important state to watch for in 2020 after Pennsylvania, Nevada and Virginia.

Virginia is no longer lean Democratic, but has moved into the likely category. The blackface-debacle might finally start to be fading from that state's voters' minds, as well as the state of the economy's downward trend/hardening trade war finally starting to worry the many millionaires living in its DC suburbs.

As things have turned sour for Trump in New Mexico recently, the state is expected to overtake Michigan in a couple of months, thus possibly making Michigan the 8th closest state to reach tipping point status come 2020.






No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till August 2019:

1. D.C.: -1807


















2. Vermont: -872
3. Hawaii: -863

4. Massachusetts: -846

5. Maryland: -765

6. California: -730

7. Washington: -676

8. Rhode Island: -609

9. Connecticut: -570
10. Oregon: -561
11. Illinois: -554
12. New York: -551


13. New Jersey: -457

14. Minnesota: -433
15. New Hampshire: -408

16. Delaware: -375
17. Colorado: -364

18. Wisconsin: -349
19. Michigan: -318
20. New Mexico: -311

21. Maine: -259

22. Iowa: -233


23. Pennsylvania: -149
24. Nevada: -147 (tipping point!)
25. Virginia: -105

26. Ohio: -65


27. Arizona: -21


28. North Carolina: +46


29. Florida: +92

30. Utah: +114
31. Georgia: +119

32. Indiana: +177
33. Missouri: +184
34. Nebraska: +192

35. Kansas: +217
36. Montana: +220
37. Texas: +220
38. North Dakota: +244


39. Alaska: +305

40. South Carolina: +358
41. South Dakota: +372

42. Arkansas: +412

43. Kentucky: +494
44. Idaho: +496
45. Oklahoma: +497

46. Tennessee: +531


47. Mississippi: +601
48. Louisiana: +621


49. West Virginia: +741


50. Alabama: +809


51. Wyoming: +925
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