Current 2020 map based on Morning Consult tracking

[eric82oslo]

I've looked at another metric, namely how many months each state has given Trump a positive, neutral and negative approval rating during the 26 months currently having been tracked by Morning Consult. This is what I found:


States by number of months with positive, neutral & negative Trump approval

1. Washington D.C.: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
2. Hawaii: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
3. Vermont: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
4. Massachusetts: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
5. Maryland: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
6. California: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
7. Rhode Island: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)

8. Washington: 1/0/25 (96% Democratic)
9. Oregon: 1/0/25 (96% Democratic)
10. Connecticut: 1/0/25 (96% Democratic)
11. New Hampshire: 1/0/25 (96% Democratic)
12. New Jersey: 1/1/24 (92% Democratic, 4% Trumpian)
13. Colorado: 2/0/24 (92% Democratic)
14. Illinois: 3/0/23 (88.5% Democratic)
15. Minnesota: 3/0/23 (88.5% Democratic)
16. Wisconsin: 3/0/23 (88.5% Democratic)
17. Michigan: 3/0/23 (88.5% Democratic)
18. Maine: 3/0/23 (88.5% Democratic)
19. New York: 4/0/22 (85% Democratic)
20. Delaware: 4/0/22 (85% Democratic)
21. Iowa: 4/0/22 (85% Democratic)
22. Pennsylvania: 4/1/21 (81% Democratic, 15% Trumpian)
23. New Mexico: 5/0/21 (81% Democratic)
24. Nevada: 5/1/20 (77% Democratic, 19% Trumpian) [tipping point!]
25. Virginia: 6/0/19 (73% Democratic)
26. Ohio: 6/3/17 (65% Democratic, 27% Trumpian)

27. Arizona: 9/3/14 (54% Democratic, 35% Trumpian) [toss up]


28. Utah: 14/2/10 (54% Trumpian, 38.5% Democratic) [toss up]
29. North Carolina: 14/4/8 (54% Trumpian, 31% Democratic) [toss up]

30. Florida: 18/2/6 (69% Trumpian, 27% Democratic)
31. Georgia: 20/2/4 (77% Trumpian, 15% Democratic)
32. Indiana: 24/1/1 (92% Trumpian, 4% Democratic)
33. Kansas: 24/1/1 (92% Trumpian, 4% Democratic)
34. Montana: 24/2/0 (92% Trumpian, 0% Democratic)
35. Missouri: 25/0/1 (96% Trumpian)
36. Nebraska: 25/1/0 (96% Trumpian, 0% Democratic)
37. Texas: 25/1/0 (96% Trumpian, 0% Democratic)

38. North Dakota: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
39. South Carolina: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
40. Alaska: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
41. South Dakota: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
42. Arkansas: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
43. Idaho: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
44. Kentucky: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
45. Oklahoma: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
46. Tennessee: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
47. Mississippi: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
48. Louisiana: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
49. West Virginia: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
50. Alabama: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
51. Wyoming: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)


These numbers above would translate into this 2020 map:

That gives us this current 2020 projection:

Dem: 303 EVs (25 states + DC)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 203 EVs (22 states)
Toss up: 32 EVs (3 states)


If we're looking at this way of measuring states, Trump's reelection prospects are looking even more bleak than originally thought. Only Ohio and Florida are currently leaning towards one side, and could thus still change in time for 2020. All other states - including Nevada and New Mexico, though except the 3 toss up states obviously - are at least likely, though the vast majority solidly, expected to go one way or the other.

At this point, the most toss upy state is - believe it or not - Utah! Though closely followed by Arizona, then North Carolina.


PS: Next time I'll present this model, I think I'll include a one percent lead as being a toss up as well, that would change the numbers for quite a few states, making them feel more competitive (perhaps stretch it to two percent, we'll see).

[eric82oslo]

February 2019:

Dem: 285 (no change)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 29 (no change)

I still haven't done a trend analysis based on the past 26 months of state polling by Morning Consult, so I thought I might try it for the first time this month. Since it's almost impossible for me to calculate the popular vote percentage, I'll go by the tipping point state instead. In 2016 it was Wisconsin by a hair's breath, this year it's shaping up to be Nevada (although Virginia and Pennsylvania are just as likely possibilities).


How each state are expected to vote as of February 2019:

1. Washington D.C: D+55.3%
2. Hawaii: D+26.8%
3. Vermont: D+26.1%
4. Massachusetts: D+25.9%
5. Maryland: D+22.8%
6. California: D+21.4%
7. Washington: D+19.5%
8. Rhode Island: D+18.6%
9. Oregon: D+16.9%
10. Connecticut: D+16.6%
11. Illinois: D+16.6%
12. New York: D+15.8%
13. New Jersey: D+13.8%
14. Minnesota: D+13.3%
15. New Hampshire: D+11.5%
16. Delaware: D+11.3%
17. Colorado: D+10.8%
18. Wisconsin: D+10.3%
19. Michigan: D+9.4%
20. New Mexico: D+8.7%
21. Maine: D+7.2%
22. Iowa: D+6.6%
23. Pennsylvania: D+3.9%

24. Nevada: D+3.3% (current tipping point)

25. Virginia: D+2.8%
26. Ohio: D+1.3%


27. Arizona: R+0.6%
28. North Carolina: R+2.2%
29. Florida: R+3.8%
30. Utah: R+3.8%
31. Georgia: R+4.2%
32. Missouri: R+6.0%
33. Indiana: R+6.2%
34. Nebraska: R+6.9%
35. Kansas: R+7.5%
36. Texas: R+7.5%
37. Montana: R+7.6%
38. North Dakota: R+8.1%
39. South Carolina: R+11.5%
40. Alaska: R+11.6%
41. South Dakota: R+12.5%
42. Arkansas: R+14.0%
43. Idaho: R+15.3%
44. Kentucky: R+15.5%
45. Oklahoma: R+16.3%
46. Tennessee: R+16.3%
47. Mississippi: R+18.6%
48. Louisiana: R+20.0%
49. West Virginia: R+23.9%
50. Alabama: R+25.2%
51. Wyoming: R+30.2%

Wisconsin's tipping point margin in 2016 was R+0.8%, which means that with Nevada's current tipping point margin of D+3.3%, the 2020 election is so far shaping up to be D+4.1% more Democratic than the 2016 edition. Now, what we'll have to do is to compare each state's current partisan margins to their final 2016 results. That gives us this list below.


All states' current trends compared to 2016 results


North Dakota: D+27.6%
Oklahoma: D+20.1%
West Virginia: D+18.2%
Nebraska: D+18.1%
South Dakota: D+17.3%
Idaho: D+16.5%
Iowa: D+16.0%
Wyoming: D+15.6%
Utah: D+14.3%
Kentucky: D+14.3%
Kansas: D+13.1%
Arkansas: D+12.9%
Montana: D+12.8%
Indiana: D+12.7%
Missouri: D+12.6%
Minnesota: D+11.8%
New Hampshire: D+11.1%
Wisconsin: D+11.1%
Michigan: D+9.7%
Tennessee: D+9.7%
Ohio: D+9.4%
Oregon: D+5.9%
Colorado: D+5.9%
Pennsylvania: D+4.6%
Maine: D+4.2%
Washington: D+3.8%
South Carolina: D+3.8%

Predicted national trend: D+3.3%

Rhode Island: D+3.1%
Alaska: D+3.1%
Connecticut: D+3.0%
Arizona: D+2.9%
Alabama: D+2.5%
North Carolina: D+1.5%
Texas: D+1.5%
Nevada: D+0.9%
Georgia: D+0.9%
New Mexico: D+0.5%


Delaware: R+0.1%
New Jersey: R+0.2%
Vermont: R+0.3%
Louisiana: R+0.4%
Illinois: R+0.5%
Mississippi: R+0.8%
Massachusetts: R+1.3%
Virginia: R+2.5%
Florida: R+2.6%
Maryland: R+3.6%
Hawaii: R+5.4%
New York: R+6.7%
California: R+9.7%
Washington D.C: R+31.1%


That means that as of now, an impressive 37 states are already looking to be trending Democratic in the 2020 election, with another 6 or 7 states likely to flip to Democratic-trending in the next few months unless Trump's approval rating improves dramatically in no time. Now, what does this mean for the likely individual state trends relative to the nation come 2020? Let's see.


Current 2020 state TREND map

Explaining the shades:

90% shade: More than 14% off the national trend
80% shade: 12-14% of national trend
70% shade: 10-12% of national trend
60% shade: 8-10% of national trend
50% shade: 6-8% of national trend
40% shade: 4-6% of national trend
30% shade: 2-4% of national trend
Toss up: Within 2% of national trend


Some quick notes on the map. Most of the country, especially the "heartland", the agricultural great plains and most of the rust belt (the big exception being Pennsylvania), as well as the "white" Appalachian South and the "Mormon triangle", seem to be trending Democratic. Countering this trend however, is the deep south, which is either staying the same or trending Republican, as well as four of the five big, populous states (Texas being the one exception). The greater D.C. area - D.C. itself strongly so, Virginia and Maryland - seems also to be trending Republican. I think the US has 26 coastal states. Of those, only Oregon and New Hampshire seem to be trending Democratic. Most of the 2016 battleground states seem to be trending Democratic (or staying neutral). The biggest exceptions being Florida and Georgia (and Virginia if you count that one). Interesting to me is that neither of the three states with the biggest natural disasters during the Trump presidency - California (wildfires), Florida and Texas (hurricane destructions) - seem to be trending Democratic despite his blatant incompetency in the face of such disasters (which is obviously way worse even than Bush's complete incompetency reacting to Katrina, in my opinion).

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

February 2019:
-cut-

In what world is Trump only losing Virginia by 2.8% while only winning Utah by 3.8% and Oklahoma by 16.3%(!)?

[eric82oslo]

In what world is Trump only losing Virginia by 2.8% while only winning Utah by 3.8% and Oklahoma by 16.3%(!)?

My only answer to that is that Trump will for sure lose Virginia by more than 2.8%.

You do have a point though, as most states will become more partisan from this point on. However, that is not a good look when you see Minnesota is already +13 Democrat and probably only getting more Democratic.

[eric82oslo]

I have two great pieces of news in this 27th month of this installment. One, I'll just cut to it short and reveal the map which is really what all of you are waiting for anyhow.

Secondly, yet more importantly though, there's a quite fundamental way in which that map has changed substantially since last month. I'll cut through all the bullsh**t and just reveal it: Florida has gone from being likely Republican to only lean so.

EV count:

Dem: 285
Rep: 224
Toss up: 29


Here's the entire list:

1. D.C.: -1502















2. Hawaii: -725
3. Vermont: -711
4. Massachusetts: -703

5. Maryland: -621

6. California: -585

7. Washington: -534
8. Rhode Island: -504

9. Oregon: -457
10. Connecticut: -455
11. Illinois: -452

12. New York: -433

13. New Jersey: -374
14. Minnesota: -360

15. New Hampshire: -311
16. Delaware: -308

17. Colorado: -295
18. Wisconsin: -281
19. Michigan: -257

20. New Mexico: -238

21. Maine: -198
22. Iowa: -181

23. Pennsylvania: -109

24. Nevada: -95 (tipping point!)
25. Virginia: -78

26. Ohio: -39


27. Arizona: +10

28. North Carolina: +58
29. Florida: +98

30. Utah: +101
31. Georgia: +114

32. Missouri: +162
33. Indiana: +163
34. Nebraska: +184

35. Texas: +200
36. Montana: +202
37. Kansas: +203
38. North Dakota: +217


39. Alaska: +302
40. South Carolina: +310
41. South Dakota: +337

42. Arkansas: +371

43. Idaho: +411
44. Kentucky: +419
45. Oklahoma: +435
46. Tennessee: +441


47. Mississippi: +505
48. Louisiana: +538


49. West Virginia: +646

50. Alabama: +681



51. Wyoming: +811

[eric82oslo]

New month, new numbers. Not terribly much changed from last month though. With April 2019, we've reached 28 months of Morning Consult state polling. The biggest headlines making news this month is Nevada moving from lean to likely Democratic (30% to 40% confidence), while Florida remains in the lean Republican column, a positive sign for the 23 Democratic candidates running. There's also this: No less than 6 states hit their highest Trump disapproval/lowest approval ever recoded; Vermont, Maryland, New York, New Hampshire, battleground Arizona and red Alaska. If current trends continue, Ohio could go from toss up to lean Democratic in two or three more months.

No change in the EV count:

Dem: 285
Rep: 224
Toss up: 29





Here's the entire list:

1. D.C.: -1562















2. Hawaii: -759

3. Vermont: -748
4. Massachusetts: -731

5. Maryland: -651

6. California: -614

7. Washington: -561

8. Rhode Island: -526

9. Oregon: -479
10. Connecticut: -478
11. Illinois: -474
12. New York: -457

13. New Jersey: -391
14. Minnesota: -373

15. New Hampshire: -330
16. Delaware: -323
17. Colorado: -308

18. Wisconsin: -294
19. Michigan: -267
20. New Mexico: -250

21. Maine: -213

22. Iowa: -189

23. Pennsylvania: -116
24. Nevada: -102 (tipping point!)

25. Virginia: -84

26. Ohio: -43


27. Arizona: +3

28. North Carolina: +56
29. Florida: +96

30. Utah: +106
31. Georgia: +117

32. Indiana: +166
33. Missouri: +166
34. Nebraska: +188

35. Texas: +203
36. Kansas: +205
37. Montana: +205
38. North Dakota: +223


39. Alaska: +303
40. South Carolina: +320
41. South Dakota: +347

42. Arkansas: +380

43. Idaho: +428
44. Kentucky: +435
45. Oklahoma: +446

46. Tennessee: +459

47. Mississippi: +524

48. Louisiana: +558


49. West Virginia: +666

50. Alabama: +708


51. Wyoming: +839



The top 12 battleground states (potential tipping point states) as the status quo stands right now: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Maine, New Mexico, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.

I dare predict at this point, with 99.5 certainty, that one of these 12 states will be the tipping point state in the 2020 election, no matter which candidate Democrats end up with in the end.

[ElectionsGuy]

This and approval polls, in general, seem to confirm that polls still massively underestimate Republicans in the Midwest and underestimate Democrats in the west and some southern states (but to a lesser extent).

[Gass3268]

This and approval polls, in general, seem to confirm that polls still massively underestimate Republicans in the Midwest and underestimate Democrats in the west and some southern states (but to a lesser extent).

We just had elections at almost Presidential turnout levels that showed that there wasn't a massive understatement of Republicans in the Midwest.

[ElectionsGuy]

This and approval polls, in general, seem to confirm that polls still massively underestimate Republicans in the Midwest and underestimate Democrats in the west and some southern states (but to a lesser extent).

We just had elections at almost Presidential turnout levels that showed that there wasn't a massive understatement of Republicans in the Midwest.

Indiana, Missouri, Ohio Senate races. Michigan as well (tightened towards the end, but still overall underestimated James). Even Iowa and Ohio governors races. There were only two major competitive states that underestimated Democrats (Nevada and Texas) both in the Southwest. Even though the examples I mentioned above are not as extreme as what happened in 2016, it's still significant that the polls are almost all off in one direction in a significant part of the country.

Do we really think going off approvals, for example, Virginia is going to vote to the right of Iowa? Wisconsin and Michigan to vote to the left of Nevada?

[eric82oslo]

Do we really think going off approvals, for example, Virginia is going to vote to the right of Iowa? Wisconsin and Michigan to vote to the left of Nevada?

Together with Colorado and Massachusetts, I suppose Virginia has the most well-educated Democratic electorate, which should explain that they tend to have higher Democratic turnout than most other states. Though there are exceptions, like in 2014 when Mark Warner almost lost reelection.

[eric82oslo]

Morning Consult has added the month of May to their Trump approval website - the 29th month counting. And once more we are seeing a handful of states with their worst Trump approval ever, this time the furious six are Maryland (-31%), Washington (-30%), New Hampshire (-19%), Alaska (+/-0%), North Dakota (+1%) and Wyoming (+22%).

Pennsylvania is getting awfully close to overtake Nevada as the ultimate tipping point state, something that will probably happen in 3 or 4 more months if current trends continue.

Also, Arizona for the first time tipped from a positive to a negative overall Trump approval, even if it's basically up for grabs for the moment.

Expect changes in the map below next month, as Ohio is more than 50% likely to go from toss up status to lean Democratic, while North Carolina is more than 50% likely to go from lean Republican to toss up. Exciting days ahead.

Iowa, Wisconsin and South Dakota moved in an even more partisan direction in May, colouring them one shade darker:

No change in the EV count:

Dem: 285
Rep: 224
Toss up: 29





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till May 2019:

1. D.C.: -1624















2. Hawaii: -792
3. Vermont: -782
4. Massachusetts: -758


5. Maryland: -682

6. California: -642

7. Washington: -591

8. Rhode Island: -546
9. Connecticut: -502
10. Oregon: -501

11. Illinois: -494
12. New York: -479

13. New Jersey: -409

14. Minnesota: -389

15. New Hampshire: -349
16. Delaware: -338
17. Colorado: -322
18. Wisconsin: -307

19. Michigan: -279
20. New Mexico: -265

21. Maine: -222
22. Iowa: -201


23. Pennsylvania: -123
24. Nevada: -113 (tipping point!)

25. Virginia: -90

26. Ohio: -47
27. Arizona: -3


28. North Carolina: +52
29. Florida: +96

30. Utah: +108
31. Georgia: +118

32. Indiana: +169
33. Missouri: +172
34. Nebraska: +190

35. Texas: +206
36. Kansas: +206
37. Montana: +208
38. North Dakota: +224


39. Alaska: +303
40. South Carolina: +330

41. South Dakota: +353
42. Arkansas: +388

43. Idaho: +448
44. Kentucky: +449

45. Oklahoma: +455
46. Tennessee: +475

47. Mississippi: +541

48. Louisiana: +575


49. West Virginia: +684

50. Alabama: +735



51. Wyoming: +861



Here are the twelve states which have changed the most times between a monthly approval and disapproval of the president, thus making them very competitive in 2020, one would imagine:

1. North Carolina: 14 approvals/5 tied/10 disapprovals (48% Trumpian, 34.5% Democratic)
2. Utah: 17/2/10 (59% Trumpian, 34.5% Democratic)
3. Arizona: 9/3/17 (59% Democratic, 31% Trumpian)
4. Florida: 18/3/8 (62% Trumpian, 28% Democratic)
5. Ohio: 6/3/20 (69% Democratic, 24% Trumpian)
6. Virginia: 6/0/22 (76% Democratic)
7. Nevada: 5/1/23 (79% Democratic, 17% Trumpian)
8. Georgia: 23/2/4 (79% Trumpian, 14% Democratic)
9. New Mexico: 5/0/24 (83% Democratic)
10. Pennsylvania: 4/1/24 (83% Democratic, 14% Trumpian)
11. Iowa: 4/0/25 (86% Democratic)
12. Delaware: 4/0/25 (86% Democratic)



Here are the 10 most stable states in the polling so far (least difference between high and low approval):

1. Maryland: 19%
2. Pennsylvania: 20%
2. South Carolina: 20%
2. New Hampshire: 20%
5. Georgia: 21%
5. New Jersey: 21%
5. Virginia: 21%
8. Ohio: 22%
8. North Carolina: 22%
8. Wisconsin: 22%
8. Alabama: 22%


And here are the 10 most volatile states:

1. New Mexico: 43%
2. Alaska: 37%
3. Utah: 36%
4. Vermont: 35%
(Washington D.C.: 35%)
5. Illinois: 33%
5. Connecticut: 33%
7. New York: 32%
8. Washington: 31%
8. Delaware: 31%
10. Nevada: 30%


As we can observe from these two lists, most battlegrounds appear to be rather stable, not changing around much from month to month. Pennsylvania is a good example of that, which almost every single month has given Trump a disapproval number in the single digits.

[R.P. McM]

Do we really think going off approvals, for example, Virginia is going to vote to the right of Iowa?

Happened in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. I mean, we aren't talking about ancient history. I don't think it'll happen again, but it could — IA is a lot more elastic than VA. This forum tends to believe political history was completely rewritten in 2016, but that's probably not the case.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Better than some maps that have FL voting to left of WI

[eric82oslo]

Another half a dozen states had their worst Trump approval ever in June, Trump's 30th month in office: New York (-24), New Hampshire (-22%), Arizona (-7%), South Dakota (+4), Arkansas (+6) and Wyoming (+22%). Additionally we saw two sets of states changing places in the ranking: Kansas inching out Texas for the 34th most Democratic/anti-Trump state (35th with DC) and Kentucky overtaking Idaho's 43rd place.

Among the battlegrounds, two major changes occurred; North Carolina went from leaning Republican to toss up, while Ohio went from toss up to leaning Democratic! That still leaves us with two toss up states right now; Arizona and North Carolina.

Tipping point Nevada's average Trump disapproval during his first 30 months has been -4.1%. Over the last 7 months, however, that disapproval has increased to -10%, on average.

Finally some major changes in the EV count:

Democratic: 303 (+18)
Republican: 209 (-15)
Toss up: 26 (-3)





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till June 2019:

1. D.C.: -1683















2. Hawaii: -815
3. Vermont: -810

4. Massachusetts: -784


5. Maryland: -710

6. California: -671

7. Washington: -619

8. Rhode Island: -567

9. Connecticut: -524
10. Oregon: -519
11. Illinois: -514
12. New York: -503


13. New Jersey: -424
14. Minnesota: -405

15. New Hampshire: -371

16. Delaware: -347
17. Colorado: -334
18. Wisconsin: -321

19. Michigan: -294
20. New Mexico: -281

21. Maine: -233
22. Iowa: -213


23. Pennsylvania: -132
24. Nevada: -122 (tipping point!)

25. Virginia: -94
26. Ohio: -54

27. Arizona: -10


28. North Carolina: +49

29. Florida: +93

30. Utah: +110
31. Georgia: +118

32. Indiana: +170
33. Missouri: +173
34. Nebraska: +191

35. Kansas: +208
36. Texas: +210
37. Montana: +214
38. North Dakota: +231


39. Alaska: +306
40. South Carolina: +337

41. South Dakota: +357
42. Arkansas: +394


43. Kentucky: +464
44. Idaho: +466
45. Oklahoma: +467
46. Tennessee: +493


47. Mississippi: +559
48. Louisiana: +589



49. West Virginia: +703

50. Alabama: +759


51. Wyoming: +883

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Correct mao 278 D
Trump 259 R

[redeagleofficial]

This map is trash, OH is lean R at a minimum, VA is likely D, and WI is a Toss up

[eric82oslo]

This map is trash, OH is lean R at a minimum, VA is likely D, and WI is a Toss up

The Virginia numbers are indeed very different from what other pollsters like Gallup have been showing, however Wisconsin and Ohio are not all that different.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI is D+2 state and OH is R+3 state, this map shows that Trump doesnt have a chance

[redeagleofficial]

This map is trash, OH is lean R at a minimum, VA is likely D, and WI is a Toss up

The Virginia numbers are indeed very different from what other pollsters like Google has been showing, however Wisconsin and Ohio are not all that different.

2018 exit polls (a D+9 electorate)

OH: 53/46 A
WI: 48/52 A
VA: 43/55 A

[eric82oslo]

WI is D+2 state and OH is R+3 state, this map shows that Trump doesnt have a chance

This map is actually extremely generous towards Trump as it also includes his honey moon period of the first 4 to 6 months in office when he had a positive job approval in almost every state. If you read the beginning of this thread, you will see that several posters heavily critizised me for including his honey moon period as they considered it totally irrelevant and thus conflating Trump's numbers by a lot. I personally think I've struck the right balance. I want to be objective by including all numbers, not just a selective number of them.

[eric82oslo]

This map is trash, OH is lean R at a minimum, VA is likely D, and WI is a Toss up

The Virginia numbers are indeed very different from what other pollsters like Google has been showing, however Wisconsin and Ohio are not all that different.

2018 exit polls (a D+9 electorate)

OH: 53/46 A
WI: 48/52 A
VA: 43/55 A

You tell that to Morning Consult. I'm just aggregating the numbers. Apparently they're considered serious enough that 538 decided to start a close partnership with them. They've also won multiple awards during the past 3-4 years.

I do have a strange feeling that they might be contacting the same voters every month though, since their numbers in states like Virginia and Pennsylvania don't seem to change very much one month till the next. In smaller states they tend to change more though.

[pbrower2a]

WI is D+2 state and OH is R+3 state, this map shows that Trump doesnt have a chance

This map is actually extremely generous towards Trump as it also includes his honey moon period of the first 4 to 6 months in office when he had a positive job approval in almost every state. If you read the beginning of this thread, you will see that several posters heavily criticised me for including his honey moon period as they considered it totally irrelevant and thus conflating Trump's numbers by a lot. I personally think I've struck the right balance. I want to be objective by including all numbers, not just a selective number of them.

It would be possible to

(1) dump the earliest months as they are no longer relevant, or
(2) use only he latest six months.

Obviously the most relevant polls before the election itself will be those that appear closest to the election itself.  Barring a 9/11-style event that he handles at least somewhat properly, he will never get anywhere near his 'honeymoon' numbers.

[eric82oslo]

WI is D+2 state and OH is R+3 state, this map shows that Trump doesnt have a chance

This map is actually extremely generous towards Trump as it also includes his honey moon period of the first 4 to 6 months in office when he had a positive job approval in almost every state. If you read the beginning of this thread, you will see that several posters heavily criticised me for including his honey moon period as they considered it totally irrelevant and thus conflating Trump's numbers by a lot. I personally think I've struck the right balance. I want to be objective by including all numbers, not just a selective number of them.

It would be possible to

(1) dump the earliest months as they are no longer relevant, or
(2) use only he latest six months.

Obviously the most relevant polls before the election itself will be those that appear closest to the election itself.  Barring a 9/11-style event that he handles at least somewhat properly, he will never get anywhere near his 'honeymoon' numbers.

I know, but on the other side: People who don't already disapprove of Trump's performance by now - unless some major changes occur, will either vote for him or vote for a third party. Incumbent presidents always do at least somewhat better than their latest approval numbers would suggest.

[eric82oslo]

I don't want to speak too soon, but it's almost like the Midwest is waking up out of its stupid coma

Political interest has skyrocketed after Trump became president - which we saw in 2018 which had almost presidential level turnout - and if there's one thing high turnout is a sign of, it's a really strong showing for the Democratic party, as young voters and minorities who historically are not voting at high rates, are often staunchly Democratic if they only bother to vote.

Much of the reason Trump managed to eke out victories in a handful of Midwestern states was due to abysmal turnout rates amoung youngsters and minorities who really couldn't care less. Now however they will care, cause they've witnessed first hand what atrocious damages Trump has been able to inflict upon the country and the rest of the world in such a short time.

[Annatar]

MC's numbers are trash, before the 2018 midterms their numbers had Trumps approval 4 to 6% lower in states like Ohio and Wisconsin than the exit polls did.