Current 2020 map based on Morning Consult tracking

[catographer]

The Trump approval ratings map basically looks like 2012. It's like 2016 didn't even happen. Wtf???

[pbrower2a]

Were it for cumulative polling, we would have Presidents Mike Dukakis, John McCain, are the ones to most likely predict the results. and Hillary Clinton.

The last polls are the ones most relevant to the electoral results... and as a rule the match-ups matter far more than approval and disapproval.

Not one vote has been cast in the 2020 Presidential election. Opinions are being set already, and at this point I see Trump more likely to lose as did the worst electoral losers among incumbent Presidents of the last century (Hoover and Carter) than that he barely win.  

He is more likely to lose Texas than to win any one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.

[RaphaelDLG]

I don't want to speak too soon, but it's almost like the Midwest is waking up out of its stupid coma

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump probably already had some disapproval ratings in the mid west, but one reason why he did well, is because hillary clinton had even higher disapproval there (and i think pollings even underestimated the true extent of that, just like they overestimated clinton's performance in michigan primaries). Trump's issues also appealed more to Rust Belt voters, but i think they feel kind off disappointed or even cheated on. I think some had expected that Trump would've had a different attitude if elected as president, and others might not have seen Trump being elected as president, but issues like immigration, the wall, taking on wall street and the establishment all appeal to voters in the rust belt, while hillary clinton was really unpopular. The Hillary Clinton card disappears, and Trump turns out to be more of a generic republican anyway, with a bad communication style and not being really presidential (not being a president of all Americans, but only his voter base), and that explains why those rust belt states shift further away from Trump now.

[eric82oslo]

Trump probably already had some disapproval ratings in the mid west, but one reason why he did well, is because hillary clinton had even higher disapproval there (and i think pollings even underestimated the true extent of that, just like they overestimated clinton's performance in michigan primaries). Trump's issues also appealed more to Rust Belt voters, but i think they feel kind off disappointed or even cheated on. I think some had expected that Trump would've had a different attitude if elected as president, and others might not have seen Trump being elected as president, but issues like immigration, the wall, taking on wall street and the establishment all appeal to voters in the rust belt, while hillary clinton was really unpopular. The Hillary Clinton card disappears, and Trump turns out to be more of a generic republican anyway, with a bad communication style and not being really presidential (not being a president of all Americans, but only his voter base), and that explains why those rust belt states shift further away from Trump now.

I agree with all of this. Excellent analysis.

Btw two more months have passed, so it's time for me to put together an updated map and release the latest numbers. (I chose not to do it last month, since the changes from the previous month were almost non-existant, so I felt it was kind of a waste of time.)

PS: The fact that Trump is much more popular in Florida than in the average swing state like Pennsylvania, Virginia and Nevada bore out in these midterms, as Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson were fairly clear favourites to win, according to the most recent polling, while both seem to have lost (although by less than a percentage point) in the end. No other Democratic candidate for Senator or Governor lost in any of the other swing states as far as I can remember, not even Scott Walker's relatively obscure opponent. I'm not considering Arizona or Georgia as swing states just yet, though at least one of them might very well be come 2020 - we'll see. I'm also not including Ohio or Iowa, since Trump won both of those by an almost double digit margin in 2016.

[eric82oslo]

And here's the new map, encompassing January 2017-August 2018:

Dem: 266 (no change)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 48 (no change)

The biggest map change this month is probably Utah going from lean (30%) to likely (40%) Republican. Some states have also gone from strongly (80%) to super strongly (90%) partisan. Other than that the map remains relatively unchanged, with the same four toss up states as last month and with Virginia continuing to be the most likely tipping point state, followed closely by Nevada, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Two more months have passed, we've now up to 22 months - up until October 2018 - of approval polling for Trump. Here's the new full list:

1. Hawaii: -594
2. Massachusetts: -558
3. Vermont: -555

4. Maryland: -486

5. California: -442
6. Rhode Island: -411
7. Washington: -407

8. Oregon: -351

9. Illinois: -346
10. Connecticut: -346
11. New York: -320

12. New Jersey: -292
13. Minnesota: -285

14. New Hampshire: -241
15. Delaware: -238
16. Colorado: -226
17. Wisconsin: -217

18. Michigan: -194
19. New Mexico: -164

20. Maine: -148
21. Iowa: -130

22. Pennsylvania: -74
23. Virginia: -52 (tipping point)

24. Nevada: -47
25. Ohio: -20


26. Arizona: +40

27. North Carolina: +63
28. Utah: +95

29. Florida: +110
30. Georgia: +115
31. Indiana: +145
32. Missouri: +147

33. Nebraska: +172
34. Texas: +190
35. Kansas: +190
36. Montana: +192

37. North Dakota: +200

38. South Carolina: +272
39. Alaska: +296
40. South Dakota: +296

41. Arkansas: +336

42. Idaho: +352
43. Kentucky: +359
44. Tennessee: +377
45. Oklahoma: +394

46. Mississippi: +441

47. Louisiana: +472

48. West Virginia: +547

49. Alabama: +585

50. Wyoming: +691


The changes in ranking from last month:

*Oregon and Illinois both surpasses Connecticut (technically a draw). Connecticut thus drops in its anti-Trump ranking from 8th to 10th.
*Texas surpasses Montana for 34th place.
*Kansas surpasses both Montana and North Dakota and is now ranked 35th.
*Also Utah continues to distance itself from Florida and Georgia. Utah is not looking much better for Trump right now than North Carolina.

And here are the newest map:

Dem: 279 (+13)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 35 (-13)

Right now, only three more toss up states remain (Ohio, Arizona and Nevada), as Virginia has just eeked passed the margical 50 point limit and is thus now considered lean Democratic. Guess the majority of you will be pretty happy about that lol. That also means that whoever ends up as the Democratic nominee in 2020, right now looks like she or he will have the sufficient amount of electoral votes in the bag, since a winning candidate being able to put Virginia in the bag would end up with 279 EVs, 9 more than absolutely needed. (Or 10 more I guess, since Democrats managed to take back the house.)

PS: Nevada is right on the border to become lean Democratic now too, and probably will starting from next month onwards, which will make Trump's worries even greater.

Top 10 most important battle ground states ranked after how close they are to become the 2020 tipping point state (states like Pennsylvania & Florida will always be important of course, simply because they have so many EVs, but this ranking does not consider the weight of EVs):

1. Virginia
2. Nevada
3. Pennsylvania
4. Ohio
5. Iowa
6. Arizona
7. Maine
8. New Mexico
9. North Carolina
10. Michigan

Utah is 11th (!!), Florida currently 12th, but this is almost certain, I would think, to change now that Florida voters have granted voting rights back to 1.4-1.5 million previously convicted felons. It is said that 18-21% of the African American adult population of Florida previously didn't have the right to vote. It is estimated that perhaps as few as 20-30% of these previous felons would actually bother to vote, but even that could have a huge impact obviously in such an always hard fought state. 13th on the list is Wisconsin.

[eric82oslo]

Junk poll, there is no way Trump is less popular in swingy, competitive NH than in deep blue ME, CO and MI.

Are you sure? The two house seats in New Hampshire this year leaned far more Democratic than in either Maine, Colorado or Michigan. (Governor races are a whole 'nother ballpark of course and is hardly influenced by partisanship at all, just look at Massachussetts this year.)

[eric82oslo]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Another two months have passed, which means that we now have Trump approval numbers for every state for all of 2017 as well as all of 2018 - in total his 24 first months in office.


Here is Trump's accumulated scorecard after two years in office:

1. Hawaii: -642
2. Massachusetts: -613
3. Vermont: -611


4. Maryland: -538

5. California: -497
6. Washington: -452

7. Rhode Island: -447

8. Oregon: -393
9. Illinois: -387
10. Connecticut: -386
11. New York: -365

12. New Jersey: -323
13. Minnesota: -309

14. Delaware: -267
15. New Hampshire: -262
16. Colorado: -252

17. Wisconsin: -239
18. Michigan: -215

19. New Mexico: -199
20. Maine: -163

21. Iowa: -148

22. Pennsylvania: -85
23. Nevada: -63 (tipping point!)
24. Virginia: -59

25. Ohio: -23


26. Arizona: +30

27. North Carolina: +62

28. Utah: +104
29. Florida: +106
30. Georgia: +112

31. Indiana: +151
32. Missouri: +152
33. Nebraska: +176
34. Kansas: +188
35. Texas: +194
36. Montana: +197
37. North Dakota: +198


38. South Carolina: +277
39. Alaska: +298

40. South Dakota: +314
41. Arkansas: +346

42. Idaho: +363
43. Kentucky: +373
44. Tennessee: +397

45. Oklahoma: +408

46. Mississippi: +453
47. Louisiana: +486


48. West Virginia: +576

49. Alabama: +607


50. Wyoming: +727


All ranking changes since October:

*Washington is now more anti-Trump than Rhode Island. Only five states have given Trump a more miserable approval rating. The Starbucks filled Seattle does not fit very well into the current government philosophy.

*Delaware is now finally more anti Trump than New Hampshire, I guess to noone's really big surprise and almost everyone's expectations and gut feelings.

*Very importantly, perhaps as a result of the very immigration intensive Trump midterm campaign, Nevada has now become more critical of Trump than Virginia. It's important because for the first time in many, many months, Virginia is no longer considered the most likely tipping point state in 2020. Instead that honour now goes to Nevada, a state until recently quite supportive of Trump's agenda. That is clearly changing.

*Also somewhat importantly, but not surprisingly, Utah is no longer lean Republican, but rather considered likely Republican. The senatorial campaign of Mitt Romney might have had an influence there.


Here's the new map after 2 years of Trump:

Dem: 285 (+6)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 29 (-6)

Nevada has moved out of toss up status and into lean Dem. Ohio and Arizona are the only ones remaining as toss up.

Most importantly, Virginia is no longer considered the most likely tipping point state. Instead, Nevada is now regarded as slightly more likely to become the be all, end all state of 2020.

Here are the 26 most important battleground states of 2020, ranked after how far off they are from the current tipping point of Nevada:

1. Nevada (0)
2. Virginia (+4)
3. Pennsylvania (-22)
4. Ohio (+40)

5. Iowa (-85)
6. Arizona (+93)
7. Maine (-100)

8. North Carolina (+125)
9. New Mexico (-136)

10. Michigan (-152)
11. Utah (+167)
12. Florida (+169)
13. Georgia (+175)
14. Wisconsin (-176)
15. Colorado (-189)
16. New Hampshire (-199)

17. Delaware (-204)
18. Indiana (+214)
19. Missouri (+215)
20. Nebraska (+239)
21. Minnesota (-246)

22. Kansas (+251)
23. Texas (+257)
24. New Jersey (-260)
25. Montana (+260)
26. North Dakota (+261)

You read that right - Nebraska is currently a more likely tipping point state than Minnesota! Even more so if Amy Klobuchar ends up on the Democratic ticket lol.

There's currently little doubt though that the first tier of battleground states in 2020 are likely to consist of the quartet of Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio - three of them having a double digit EV count.

PS: From now on, I will update this chart and map every two to three months, as the changes are only minor from one month to the next. In 2020 I might update it even more seldom, perhaps every four months or if anything major changes, like the tipping point state or any state moves into or out of toss up territory.

[eric82oslo]

The average Trump approval rating in each state during his two first years in office:

1. Hawaii: -26.8%
2. Massachusetts: -25.5%
3. Vermont: -25.5%

4. Maryland: -22.4%
5. California: -20.7%

6. Washington: -18.8%
7. Rhode Island: -18.6%
8. Oregon: -16.4%
9. Illinois: -16.1%
10. Connecticut: -16.1%
11. New York: -15.2%

12. New Jersey: -13.5%
13. Minnesota: -12.9%
14. Delaware: -11.1%
15. New Hampshire: -10.9%
16. Colorado: -10.5%
17. Wisconsin: -10.0%

18. Michigan: -9.0%
19. New Mexico: -8.3%
20. Maine: -6.8%
21. Iowa: -6.2%

22. Pennsylvania: -3.5%
23. Nevada: -2.6% (tipping point)
24. Virginia: -2.5%
25. Ohio: -1.0%


26. Arizona: +1.2%
27. North Carolina: +2.6%
28. Utah: +4.3%
29. Florida: +4.4%
30. Georgia: +4.7%

31. Indiana: +6.3%
32. Missouri: +6.3%
33. Nebraska: +7.3%
34. Kansas: +7.8%
35. Texas: +8.1%
36. Montana: +8.2%
37. North Dakota: +8.2%

38. South Carolina: +11.5%
39. Alaska: +12.4%
40. South Dakota: +13.1%
41. Arkansas: +14.4%

42. Idaho: +15.1%
43. Kentucky: +15.5%
44. Tennessee: +16.5%
45. Oklahoma: +17%
46. Mississippi: +18.9%

47. Louisiana: +20.2%
48. West Virginia: +24.0%

49. Alabama: +25.3%

50. Wyoming: +30.3%


9 states within +/- 5% (close to true toss up), 21 states within +/- 10% (still battleground states at this point, though Wisconsin seems to be slipping away at this point, soon leaving only 20). The remaining 30 states + D.C. have consistenly had either double digit approval or disapproval ratings for Trump, and are thus probably too far off at this point to really be taken seriously, unless something truely fundamental will change the race, like an economic recession, a war breaking out or a major terrorist attack. Including in those 30 less or non-competitive states, we find states previously thought of as potential battlegrounds like New Hampshire, Minnesota and perhaps Colorado. However, Texas is still in the single digits, if only barely.

The six states within 3.5% together amasses an impressive 83 EVs, the nine states within 5% combine for a full and sweet 134 EVs.

[pbrower2a]

Where the President's approval is at the latest is what usually matters most.

I see polls that have the President enduring approval levels under 40% nationwide, which may relate to the Border Wall that he isn't going to get. His failure to get it may allow him to recover some. Enough? Who knows? I am not in the prophecy business.

Cumulative approval from January 2017 to October 2020 will matter far less than will what people think as they make up their minds to vote.  Let us suppose that the cumulative disapproval in New Hampshire in October 2020 is -406... but we see approval for the President like this:

New Hampshire +7

for October alone. It was +4 in September, +1 in August, and -3 in July.  The cumulative number was -418 after July results. The -418 is meaningless in October as New Hampshire voters start casting absentee ballots.

So what of the other side?

Let us suppose that Florida is at +120 in July, but approval numbers for Trump go from +4 in July to even in August to -2 in September and -4 in October.  Do you think that Trump wins Florida in November? 

Consider this: Barack Obama had some impressive approval numbers early in 2009. Those obviously took a tumble, and he ended up winning re-election by a narrower margin in popular and electoral votes in 2012 than in 2008. (Most incumbents gain some, but Obama got elected while the economy was in a tailspin, and Romney was an unusually-strong challenger against an incumbent who had not fouled up as President). It is how Obama was perceived in the autumn of 2012 that decided whether he would be a on-term or two-term President. 

The average to now is already irrelevant. Most Presidents have their ups and downs, and I see no reason to expect differently with this President. What I see in January 2019 is incredibly horrid for a President seeking re-election. Maybe what we saw in August 2018 will be closer to the reality of October 2020, as it seems not to have been as 'down' as such few statewide polls as I saw in January show.

Trump approval and disapproval numbers were comparatively consistent in 2018 -- bad.     

[Gass3268]

Virginia is not a tossup or tipping point lmao

MC's polling in Virginia has been consistently awful.

[eric82oslo]

Pbrower2a, you have completely misunderstood everything about this thread and about my project. This project has NEVER been about figuring out whether Trump or Democrats are the favourites to win, as you seem so obsessed about as an extreme Democratic hack. Nothing wrong with that at all, but you pretend like you're some kind of a neutral observer (LMFAO). This project has always been about implementing the latest science in the way of statistics - something I've always cared deeply about - in order to figure out which states are more likely to end up as the crucial battleground states come 2020. That's my whole project. You've criticized me from day one for doing this, like there's something unethical about it. The truth is it's never been done or approached before, so who are you to know whether it will work or not? I am obviously as clueless as you and everyone else about the final results, just like Colombus was when he sailed towards Hispaniola and expected to find India. The one thing I know about statistics is that accumulated statistics ALWAYS - and EVERY SINGLE TIME - trumps one time statistics. According to you, only the latest numbers are important. Well, my friend, you are sadly wrong, and it just goes to show how incredibly ignorant you are when it comes to the world of statistics.

[pbrower2a]

Pbrower2a, you have completely misunderstood everything about this thread and about my project. This project has NEVER been about figuring out whether Trump or Democrats are the favourites to win, as you seem so obsessed about as an extreme Democratic hack. Nothing wrong with that at all, but you pretend like you're some kind of a neutral observer (LMFAO). This project has always been about implementing the latest science in the way of statistics - something I've always cared deeply about - in order to figure out which states are more likely to end up as the crucial battleground states come 2020. That's my whole project. You've criticized me from day one for doing this, like there's something unethical about it. The truth is it's never been done or approached before, so who are you to know whether it will work or not? I am obviously as clueless as you and everyone else about the final results, just like Colombus was when he sailed towards Hispaniola and expected to find India. The one thing I know about statistics is that accumulated statistics ALWAYS - and EVERY SINGLE TIME - trumps one time statistics. According to you, only the latest numbers are important. Well, my friend, you are sadly wrong, and it just goes to show how incredibly ignorant you are when it comes to the world of statistics.

It is the difference between on the one side a summation or integral to the results at a time. So someone has taken a road trip from Boston to San Francisco in six days and covered about 3108 miles. (The midpoint of the journey is near York, Nebraska in case you are curious). How long will it take to drive to Manila?

You are not driving to Manila. You can't! Your Amphicar isn't seaworthy, and it would have probably broken down along the Ohio Turnpike anyway!  As 2016 demonstrates, it is where the positions of the candidates are at election time that matters. Clinton collapsed and Trump surged. Such also explains why the elder Bush beat Dukakis. Your method would have Mike Dukakis as the 41st President.

With an incumbent President, the approval rating is everything unless something really strange is going on (like a rigged election).

Do we know all that will happen between now and November 2020? Of course not. I would not guess what the weather will be like in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, or New Hampshire (the only near-swing states in which an autumn snowstorm could affect turnout at the polls), the Dow-Jones average, or what team wins the World Series (allegedly when the American League team wins the World Series, the Republican nominee usually wins the popular vote and vice-versa). It is imaginable that the Dodgers would defeat the Yankees, Klobuchar would win the popular vote, and Trump wins the electoral vote much as Hillary Clinton won the popular vote and lost the electoral vote after the Cubs won the World Series).

Am I predicting the result of the 2020 World Series?  No. This time it could be the Cleveland Indians against the Milwaukee Brewers, which would be the worst for the TV ratings, but is possible. I certainly do not expect a rematch between the Detroit Tigers and the San Diego Padres!

I try to be objective, and I use mathematical models with the caveat that those are not predictions of the result. I gave an almost equal chance to a Trump surge in New Hampshire and a Trump collapse in Florida.

At this stage we must ask such questions as "How can Trump win" -- and at this stage a positive answer requires some convoluted reasoning even if I can't believe it. Then again, I never believed that the American electorate could ever vote for so crass a demagogue as Donald Trump who had no political experience.   

[eric82oslo]

The average of many, many, many, many, many, many polls will almost always come closer to the final result than any one single poll, even if it's the very last one released before the election. That's my whole point pbrower, and most empirical data suggests that I'm right. That's why Superdata, Gigadata, whatever they prefer to call it, has become the most lucrative and biggest business in the world over the past 4-5-6-7-8 years. The more data you are in possession of, the more detailed you can predict people's behaviour. Companies like Facebook regularily pay out billions in order to get their hands on the latest Ultradata. To claim that Big Data is not a thing, and to keep pretending that only the smallest of the tiniest data can tell you anything, is the same as publically admitting that you are a moron, or a know nothing if you prefer.

[😥]

Lol Virginia

[eric82oslo]

Morning Consult has released its Trump approval numbers for January, it's 25th consecutive month. Thanks to Trump's "beautiful" shutdown, he managed to obtain his worst monthly approval in no less than 17 states! The 17 states with record high Trump disapproval and where he stands in those states at the moment:


Maryland: -30%
California: -30% (previous low: -29%)
New York: -24%
New Jersey: -20%
Colorado: -18% (previous low: -16%!)
Wisconsin: -16% (!)
Iowa: -14% (previous low: -11%!!!)
Nevada: -13% (previous low: -12%!)
Pennsylvania: -10% (!)
Arizona: -7% (!)
Florida: -4% (previous low: -3%!)
Missouri: -2% (first time ever in negative territory, previous low: 0%!)
Texas: -1% (first time ever in negative territory, previous low: +1%!!)
Nebraska: 0% (previous low: +1%)
Montana: +1%
Alaska: +1%
South Dakota: +6%

The traits these 17 states have in common are that they are either heavily latino states, agricultural states, rustbelt states or urban, populous states. Region-wise we are very much talking about the north (including Alaska and Montana), the rustbelt, the west, the northeast and the larger D.C. area.


The 26 most likely tipping point/battleground states come 2020 after Trump's 25th month in office has finished:

1. Nevada: most likely tipping point state at the moment (average Trump disapproval -3%, though -13% in January)
2. Virginia: +0.2% higher Trump approval on average, compared to Nevada
3. Pennsylvania: -0.8% less Trump approval, more Democratic on average
4. Ohio: +1.9%

5. Iowa: -3.5%
6. Arizona: +3.9%
7. Maine: -4.0%

8. North Carolina: +5.3%
9. New Mexico: -5.7% (has been very critical of Trump lately, will likely drop on the ranking during 2019 and/or 2020)
10. Michigan: -6.2%
11. Utah: +6.9% (perhaps the most volatile state during Trump's presidency together with New Hampshire - wants to like Trump since he's a Republican, but just can't seem to settle for such an amoral leader)
12. Florida: +7.1%
13. Wisconsin: -7.2%
14. Georgia: +7.4%
15. Colorado: -7.8%
16. New Hampshire: -8.2%
17. Delaware: -8.2%

18. Missouri: +9.0%
19. Indiana: +9.2%
20. Nebraska: +10.0%
21. Minnesota: -10.1%
22. Kansas: +10.6%
23. Texas: +10.7%
24. New Jersey: -10.7%
25. Montana: +10.9%
26. North Dakota: +11.1%

Remember that these numbers are all relative to Nevada, the current tipping point state, so the actual Trump averages are all either 3% worse or better, so for instance North Dakota's real average is +8.1%, while New Jersey's is -13.7%.

Either in March or April I'll update the full list again with the corresponding map. Could be interesting changes if Trump decides to plunge or dive right into another shutdown. A couple of rural, conservative states like Wyoming and Idaho seemed practically unbothered by the (first) shutdown, while many other states seemed really annoyed by the shutdown, and Trump's approval fell quite significantly in those states. The sharpest falls in Trump's state approval from December '18 till January '19 were down -10% in New Hampshire (!!), -9% in Utah (!!), -9% in South Dakota (!), -7% in Virginia (!), -7% in Nebraska, -5% in Maine, -5% in Missouri, -5% in Minnesota, -5% in Texas, -5% in North Dakota, -4% in Pennsylvania, -4% in Iowa, -4% in Wisconsin, -4% in Indiana, -4% in Washington, -4% in Tennessee, -4% in Mississippi and -4% in Vermont. Out of these 18 hardest hitted states by Trump's shutdown, a majority (up to 12 out of 18) could in fact at this point be classified as possible 2020 battlegrounds. That's not a good omen for Trump at all. The most liberal and most conservative states are more or less set at this point. The important battleground states in the middle however are still very much in flux, as proven so vividly by the dramatic and epic falls of states such as New Hampshire, Utah and Virginia in January. Food for thought.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Jan 2019 MC net approvals/disapprovals map

[eric82oslo]

December 2018:

Dem: 285 (+6)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 29 (-6)

Trump's February 2019 approval rating has been released. They've also completely upgraded and renovated their site, so you can follow the change in each state from month to month through a scrolldown and a graph, quite neat. (https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/) It also let me add the Washington D.C. numbers for the first time.

Trump's accumulated scorecard after 26 months in office:


1. D.C.: -1439







2. Hawaii: -696
3. Vermont: -679
4. Massachusetts: -674

5. Maryland: -594
6. California: -557
7. Washington: -507

8. Rhode Island: -484
9. Oregon: -439
10. Connecticut: -432
11. Illinois: -431
12. New York: -411

13. New Jersey: -358
14. Minnesota: -346

15. New Hampshire: -298
16. Delaware: -294
17. Colorado: -282
18. Wisconsin: -269
19. Michigan: -245
20. New Mexico: -227

21. Maine: -187
22. Iowa: -172
23. Pennsylvania: -102

24. Nevada: -85 (tipping point!)
25. Virginia: -74
26. Ohio: -34


27. Arizona: +16
28. North Carolina: +58

29. Florida: +100
30. Utah: +100
31. Georgia: +109
32. Missouri: +155
33. Indiana: +160
34. Nebraska: +179
35. Kansas: +195
36. Texas: +196
37. Montana: +197

38. North Dakota: +210
39. South Carolina: +298

40. Alaska: +301
41. South Dakota: +325
42. Arkansas: +364
43. Idaho: +397

44. Kentucky: +404
45. Oklahoma: +425
46. Tennessee: +425
47. Mississippi: +484

48. Louisiana: +520

49. West Virginia: +622
50. Alabama: +654

51. Wyoming: +784


For the first time Pennsylvania stands at more than -100 negative points, meaning Trump is gonna have a hard time winning the state, even if it's still solidly one of the three most likely tipping point states. Also for the first time in more than a year, Florida is now ranked as a more likely Democratic pick up than Utah. In addition, take a good look at how close Trump's approval has come to fall into negative territory in Arizona during the last few months. It currently stands at only +16 there.

Other than that, only minor changes to the ranking. Trump's approval rating picked up a couple of percentage points from January in most states, though January marked his worst approval rating ever in a third of the states.

Dem: 285 (no change)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 29 (no change)


Here are the 26 most important battleground states of 2020, ranked after how far off they are from the current tipping point of Nevada:

1. Nevada (0)
2. Virginia (+11)
3. Pennsylvania (-17)

4. Ohio (+51)
5. Iowa (-87)

6. Arizona (+101)
7. Maine (-102)
8. New Mexico (-142)
9. North Carolina (+143)

10. Michigan (-160)
11. Wisconsin (-184)
12. Florida (+185)
13. Utah (+185)
14. Georgia (+194)
15. Colorado (-197)

16. Delaware (-209)
17. New Hampshire (-213)
18. Missouri (+240)
19. Indiana (+245)

20. Minnesota (-261)
21. Nebraska (+264)

22. New Jersey (-273)
23. Kansas (+280)
24. Texas (+281)
25. Montana (+282)
26. North Dakota (+295)


Notice that Wisconsin has moved up from 14th to 11th on the list, while Utah is down two from 11th till 13th. Minnesota has moved up from 21st to 20th, while New Jersey is up two from 24th to 22nd. At the same time Texas is down one further spot. Texas won't decide the election this time around either - surprise, surprise!

[Hammy]

The Trump approval ratings map basically looks like 2012. It's like 2016 didn't even happen. Wtf???

It makes sense given Trump didn't win on popularity (in fact his favorables were extremely low) but on the unpopularity of his opponent, plus the GOP always showing up for their candidate regardless of who.

[LabourJersey]

Trump's approval in Florida fascinates me. I've always been skeptical that FL is slipping away for the Dems but looking at the data there and comparing it to OH or IA or NH, it's enough to worry me.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's approval in Florida fascinates me. I've always been skeptical that FL is slipping away for the Dems but looking at the data there and comparing it to OH or IA or NH, it's enough to worry me.

The 2018 elections there are what convinced (and broke) me. Just look at my signature.

[LabourJersey]

Trump's approval in Florida fascinates me. I've always been skeptical that FL is slipping away for the Dems but looking at the data there and comparing it to OH or IA or NH, it's enough to worry me.

The 2018 elections there are what convinced (and broke) me. Just look at my signature.

Initially I felt that Nelson was a really weak candidate, and that he dragged the ticket down. Now I'm not so sure.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's approval in Florida fascinates me. I've always been skeptical that FL is slipping away for the Dems but looking at the data there and comparing it to OH or IA or NH, it's enough to worry me.

The 2018 elections there are what convinced (and broke) me. Just look at my signature.

Initially I felt that Nelson was a really weak candidate, and that he dragged the ticket down. Now I'm not so sure.

Well, don't forget about the incompetence of Broward County's election officials.

[Beet]

Trump's approval in Florida fascinates me. I've always been skeptical that FL is slipping away for the Dems but looking at the data there and comparing it to OH or IA or NH, it's enough to worry me.

The 2018 elections there are what convinced (and broke) me. Just look at my signature.

2010 was a Republican wave year.
2012 was a Democratic year, Obama carried it and Nelson won easily.
2014 was a Republican wave year.
2016, Trump was a very good match for Florida, which is a state with a lot of WCW in it. Ironically the same people who handed the state to Bill Clinton in 1996, voted against his wife 20 years later. Also, the Democrats nominated an opportunist Republican with massive scandal problems for Senate.

2018, the Democrats had a far-left scandal ridden guy known to be under investigation by the FBI, he wasn't supposed to win the primary but he did. The FBI investigation of course was leaked at the most damaging possible moment, all of which is no surprise. The Republicans had a guy with a Latino sounding name for Governor and a Latina running mate and did well among the Cuban vote.

Basically, I see nothing to say Florida is permanently lost for the Dems, only persistent incompetence by the Florida Democrats and failure to reach out to moderate & Latino voters.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's approval in Florida fascinates me. I've always been skeptical that FL is slipping away for the Dems but looking at the data there and comparing it to OH or IA or NH, it's enough to worry me.

The 2018 elections there are what convinced (and broke) me. Just look at my signature.

2010 was a Republican wave year.
2012 was a Democratic year, Obama carried it and Nelson won easily.
2014 was a Republican wave year.
2016, Trump was a very good match for Florida, which is a state with a lot of WCW in it. Ironically the same people who handed the state to Bill Clinton in 1996, voted against his wife 20 years later. Also, the Democrats nominated an opportunist Republican with massive scandal problems for Senate.

2018, the Democrats had a far-left scandal ridden guy known to be under investigation by the FBI, he wasn't supposed to win the primary but he did. The FBI investigation of course was leaked at the most damaging possible moment, all of which is no surprise. The Republicans had a guy with a Latino sounding name for Governor and a Latina running mate and did well among the Cuban vote.

Basically, I see nothing to say Florida is permanently lost for the Dems, only persistent incompetence by the Florida Democrats and failure to reach out to moderate & Latino voters.

The issue with that though, is that the Democrats running in 2018 should have received at least some sort of boost due to a favorable environment. The fact that they didn't, or that it wasn't good enough, is a very troubling thought. In 2020 it's doubtful that the environment will be as pro-Democrat. So if that's the case, Florida may very well vote to the right of where it was in 2018. And if a Democrat invests a lot of time and resources in the Sunshine state only to yield that result, hindsight will suggest that was energy that would have been better spent in a state like Wisconsin.