Current 2020 map based on Morning Consult tracking

[eric82oslo]

MC's numbers are trash, before the 2018 midterms their numbers had Trumps approval 4 to 6% lower in states like Ohio and Wisconsin than the exit polls did.

It's interesting since most other pollsters like Gallup and so on always give Democrats an advantage of 5-15% stronger than what Morning Consult does. The only pollster which consistantly is more pro-Republican than Morning Consult is in fact Rasmussen Reports.

[Annatar]

MC's numbers are trash, before the 2018 midterms their numbers had Trumps approval 4 to 6% lower in states like Ohio and Wisconsin than the exit polls did.

It's interesting since most other pollsters like Gallup and so on always give Democrats an advantage of 5-15% stronger than what Morning Consult does. The only pollster which consistantly is more pro-Republican than Morning Consult is in fact Rasmussen Reports.

I'm not sure I would say only Rasmussen is more pro GOP than MC, YouGov's and NBC/WSJ poll numbers generally tend to be better for the GOP than MC.

[eric82oslo]

Not all that big changes in Morning Consult's state approval numbers for July, but two things strike as rather important. For the first time since Trump was inaugurated, Vermont is now ranked as the least Trump-friendly state, ever so slightly surpassing Hawaii. Also, four red, Republican states showed their worst Trump approval ever in July 2019; Arizona (-7%), Alaska (-2%!), Nebraska (-1%) and Wyoming (+21%), all western or semi-western states interestingly enough.

Nevada keeps moving closer to Pennsylvania every month now. If current trends continue, Pennsylvania will overtake Nevada to become the tipping point state in only four more months. (New Mexico could also overtake Michigan in six months or so.)

No changes in the EV count this month:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till July 2019:

1. D.C.: -1744

















2. Vermont: -839
3. Hawaii: -837
4. Massachusetts: -814


5. Maryland: -737
6. California: -700


7. Washington: -646

8. Rhode Island: -587

9. Connecticut: -546
10. Oregon: -539
11. Illinois: -533
12. New York: -527


13. New Jersey: -439
14. Minnesota: -419

15. New Hampshire: -388
16. Delaware: -359

17. Colorado: -346
18. Wisconsin: -335
19. Michigan: -305

20. New Mexico: -294

21. Maine: -246
22. Iowa: -224


23. Pennsylvania: -140
24. Nevada: -133 (tipping point!)

25. Virginia: -98
26. Ohio: -60

27. Arizona: -17


28. North Carolina: +48

29. Florida: +92

30. Utah: +113
31. Georgia: +120

32. Indiana: +175
33. Missouri: +179
34. Nebraska: +190

35. Kansas: +213
36. Texas: +216
37. Montana: +220
38. North Dakota: +236


39. Alaska: +304
40. South Carolina: +348

41. South Dakota: +367

42. Arkansas: +403

43. Kentucky: +479
44. Idaho: +482
45. Oklahoma: +483

46. Tennessee: +513

47. Mississippi: +581

48. Louisiana: +607


49. West Virginia: +721

50. Alabama: +785



51. Wyoming: +904

[Mr. Illini]

It isn't an implausible map if Dems have an extremely strong message in the Midwest.

[LiberalDem19]

All their numbers make sense except Virginia, which is probably closer to -10 or so.

[eric82oslo]

It isn't an implausible map if Dems have an extremely strong message in the Midwest.

Count on Yang to give that message. The economic message of a Yang/Warren ticket would be killer and transformational in the rust belt region.

[MT Treasurer]

Lol, I’m sure TX and GA are Likely R, FL Lean R, VA Lean D, and AZ a Tossup if IA is Likely D and OH Lean D. This is nonsense, and Morning Consult numbers should be ignored.

Edit: IA voting to the left of PA? lmao, into the trash it goes.

[Politician]

Lol, I’m sure TX and GA are Likely R, FL Lean R, VA Lean D, and AZ a Tossup if IA is Likely D and OH Lean D. This is nonsense, and Morning Consult numbers should be ignored.

Edit: IA voting to the left of PA? lmao, into the trash it goes.

"I don't like the results the poll is presenting, therefore it is junk/an outlier."

It is absolutely believable that Trump has a negative approval in IA and OH, and lower than in TX.

[Tender Branson]

Trump just having a balanced approval rating in Nebraska is pretty interesing, if true ...

[pbrower2a]

Trump just having a balanced approval rating in Nebraska is pretty interesting, if true ...

Trump would lose NE-02 (greater Omaha) and put NE-01 (eastern Nebraska, especially Lincoln, outside of Greater Omaha).

Morning Consult: net approval, July 2019

Net approval for Trump

+10 or higher
+5 to +9
+2 to +4
+1 to -1 (white)
-2 to -4
-5 to -9
-10 or higher

[eric82oslo]

One potential way of predicting swings could be to compare the final results of the 2016 election with current polling in each of those states on Trump's job approval. Using the net approval however can be tricky due to most states usually voting in a more partisan way than what polls in advance are predicting. Thus I thought I would compare each state instead by looking at how the ranking of states from most Democratic to most Republican has changed over the past 2 years and 7 months.

So here is the Morning Consult ranking of states based on Trump's approval during his first 31 months in office, with the changes from the 2016 presidential election in parenthesis:

1. Washington D.C. (no change)
2. Vermont (+4)
3. Hawaii (-1)
4. Massachusetts (no change)
5. Maryland (no change)
6. California (-3)
7. Washington (+2)
8. Rhode Island (+2)
9. Connecticut (+3)
10. Oregon (+4)
11. Illinois (-3)
12. New York (-5)
13. New Jersey (-2)
14. Minnesota (+6)
15. New Hampshire (+6)
16. Delaware (-3)
17. Colorado (no change)
18. Wisconsin (+6)
19. Michigan (+3)
20. New Mexico (-5)
21. Maine (-3)
22. Iowa (+9)
23. Pennsylvania (no change)
24. Nevada (-5)
25. Virginia (-9)
26. Ohio (+3)
27. Arizona (-1)
28. North Carolina (-1)
29. Florida (-4)
30. Utah (+5)
31. Georgia (-3)
32. Indiana (+5)
33. Missouri (+3)
34. Nebraska (+7)
35. Kansas (+5)
36. Texas (-6)
37. Montana (+2)
38. North Dakota (+10)
39. Alaska (-6)
40. South Carolina (-8)
41. South Dakota (+4)
42. Arkansas (+1)
43. Kentucky (+5)
44. Idaho (+3)
45. Oklahoma (+4)
46. Tennessee (-4)
47. Mississippi (-13)
48. Louisiana (-10)
49. West Virginia (+1)
50. Alabama (-6)
51. Wyoming (no change)

As we see, the biggest ranking changes have occurred in Mississippi (by far), Louisiana and North Dakota.


These ranking changes thus give us this trend map 2020:

It looks like most of the north - with a few exceptions - is rapidly trending Democratic, while almost the entire south - from Hawaii and California in the west, to Florida and Virginia in the east - is trending Republican. The northeast and larger D.C. area are perhaps the two regions with the least changes overall, with trends going all over the place. The region which is most firmly trending Democratic, is the agricultural Great Plains states around Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and Minnesota, while the region most clearly trending Republican are the Deep South states with tons of African Americans, which could explain the stubborn blueness of supposed purple states like Texas, Florida and Georgia too.


For color explanations:

Green: No change
30% shade: 1 place up/down on ranking
40%: 2 places
50%: 3 places
60%: 4 places
70%: 5 places
80%: 6 places
90%: 7 places or more

[LiberalDem19]

One potential way of predicting swings could be to compare the final results of the 2016 election with current polling in each of those states on Trump's job approval. Using the net approval however can be tricky due to most states usually voting in a more partisan way than what polls in advance are predicting. Thus I thought I would compare each state instead by looking at how the ranking of states from most Democratic to most Republican has changed over the past 2 years and 7 months.

So here is the Morning Consult ranking of states based on Trump's approval during his first 31 months in office, with the changes from the 2016 presidential election in parenthesis:

1. Washington D.C. (no change)
2. Vermont (+4)
3. Hawaii (-1)
4. Massachusetts (no change)
5. Maryland (no change)
6. California (-3)
7. Washington (+2)
8. Rhode Island (+2)
9. Connecticut (+3)
10. Oregon (+4)
11. Illinois (-3)
12. New York (-5)
13. New Jersey (-2)
14. Minnesota (+6)
15. New Hampshire (+6)
16. Delaware (-3)
17. Colorado (no change)
18. Wisconsin (+6)
19. Michigan (+3)
20. New Mexico (-5)
21. Maine (-3)
22. Iowa (+9)
23. Pennsylvania (no change)
24. Nevada (-5)
25. Virginia (-9)
26. Ohio (+3)
27. Arizona (-1)
28. North Carolina (-1)
29. Florida (-4)
30. Utah (+5)
31. Georgia (-3)
32. Indiana (+5)
33. Missouri (+3)
34. Nebraska (+7)
35. Kansas (+5)
36. Texas (-6)
37. Montana (+2)
38. North Dakota (+10)
39. Alaska (-6)
40. South Carolina (-8)
41. South Dakota (+4)
42. Arkansas (+1)
43. Kentucky (+5)
44. Idaho (+3)
45. Oklahoma (+4)
46. Tennessee (-4)
47. Mississippi (-13)
48. Louisiana (-10)
49. West Virginia (+1)
50. Alabama (-6)
51. Wyoming (no change)

As we see, the biggest ranking changes have occurred in Mississippi (by far), Louisiana and North Dakota.


These ranking changes thus give us this trend map 2020:

It looks like most of the north - with a few exceptions - is rapidly trending Democratic, while almost the entire south - from Hawaii and California in the west, to Florida and Virginia in the east - is trending Republican. The northeast and larger D.C. area are perhaps the two regions with the least changes overall, with trends going all over the place. The region which is most firmly trending Democratic, is the agricultural Great Plains states around Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and Minnesota, while the region most clearly trending Republican are the Deep South states with tons of African American, which could explain the stubborn blueness of supposed purple states like Texas, Florida and Georgia too.


For color explanations:

Green: No change
30% shade: 1 place up/down on ranking
40%: 2 places
50%: 3 places
60%: 4 places
70%: 5 places
80%: 6 places
90%: 7 places or more

If these swings materialize on election day, then the Great Lakes region will have a Democratic PVI in 2020

[eric82oslo]

Another month - the 32nd so far - and another set of states with their worst Trump approval ever - 7 this time; California (-30), Washington (-30), New York (-24), Colorado (-18), the still tipping point state of Nevada (-14!), Montana (+/-0) and Wyoming (+21).

If this month's trends continue, it means that Pennsylvania will overtake Nevada to become the tipping point state next month. Also next month Ohio is expected to overtake Iowa in tipping point stature, becoming the 4th most important state to watch for in 2020 after Pennsylvania, Nevada and Virginia.

Virginia is no longer lean Democratic, but has moved into the likely category. The blackface-debacle might finally start to be fading from that state's voters' minds, as well as the state of the economy's downward trend/hardening trade war finally starting to worry the many millionaires living in its DC suburbs.

As things have turned sour for Trump in New Mexico recently, the state is expected to overtake Michigan in a couple of months, thus possibly making Michigan the 8th closest state to reach tipping point status come 2020.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till August 2019:

1. D.C.: -1807


















2. Vermont: -872
3. Hawaii: -863

4. Massachusetts: -846

5. Maryland: -765

6. California: -730

7. Washington: -676

8. Rhode Island: -609

9. Connecticut: -570
10. Oregon: -561
11. Illinois: -554
12. New York: -551


13. New Jersey: -457

14. Minnesota: -433
15. New Hampshire: -408

16. Delaware: -375
17. Colorado: -364

18. Wisconsin: -349
19. Michigan: -318
20. New Mexico: -311

21. Maine: -259

22. Iowa: -233


23. Pennsylvania: -149
24. Nevada: -147 (tipping point!)
25. Virginia: -105

26. Ohio: -65

27. Arizona: -21


28. North Carolina: +46

29. Florida: +92

30. Utah: +114
31. Georgia: +119

32. Indiana: +177
33. Missouri: +184
34. Nebraska: +192

35. Kansas: +217
36. Montana: +220
37. Texas: +220
38. North Dakota: +244


39. Alaska: +305

40. South Carolina: +358
41. South Dakota: +372

42. Arkansas: +412

43. Kentucky: +494
44. Idaho: +496
45. Oklahoma: +497

46. Tennessee: +531


47. Mississippi: +601
48. Louisiana: +621


49. West Virginia: +741


50. Alabama: +809


51. Wyoming: +925

[eric82oslo]

Some major changes this month. In the 33rd month of Trump's presidency, we have no less than 8 - I repeat eight - states with their worst Trump approval ever: Oregon (-24), New Hampshire (-23), Iowa (-14), Montana (-3), Nebraska (-2), South Dakota (+1), Arkansas (+4) & Wyoming (+16!).

For the four early primary states, all the campaigning going on there lately seems to really be taking its rough toll on Trump's approval there! Even Nevada and South Carolina are very near their all time low Trump approvals this month.

However, even much more important than that, we finally have a new tipping point state, as PENNSYLVANIA replaces Nevada!

In addition, both Pennsylvania and Nevada are moved from being somewhat likely Democratic into the fairly likely category (from 40% to 50% confidence). Wisconsin is also moved from being 80% solidly Democratic and into he 90% solidly percentile.

Montana with its worst Trump approval ever, surpasses Kansas and is now the 34th most Democratic state. More impressive though, Oklahoma manages to leap ahead of no less than two states, both Kentucky and Idaho, making Oklahoma now the 43rd most Democratic state.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26





Here's the list comprising January 2017 till September 2019:

1. D.C.: -1862


















2. Vermont: -905

3. Hawaii: -892
4. Massachusetts: -877


5. Maryland: -790
6. California: -758

7. Washington: -705


8. Rhode Island: -628

9. Connecticut: -593
10. Oregon: -585
11. Illinois: -576
12. New York: -574


13. New Jersey: -474

14. Minnesota: -444
15. New Hampshire: -431

16. Delaware: -387
17. Colorado: -379
18. Wisconsin: -360

19. Michigan: -328
20. New Mexico: -327

21. Maine: -272

22. Iowa: -247

23. Nevada: -159
24. Pennsylvania: -157 (the NEW tipping point state!)

25. Virginia: -111

26. Ohio: -70

27. Arizona: -25


28. North Carolina: +43

29. Florida: +90

30. Utah: +112
31. Georgia: +120

32. Indiana: +179
33. Missouri: +189
34. Nebraska: +190

35. Montana: +217
36. Kansas: +221
37. Texas: +222
38. North Dakota: +245


39. Alaska: +306

40. South Carolina: +365
41. South Dakota: +373

42. Arkansas: +416


45. Oklahoma: +508
43. Kentucky: +509
44. Idaho: +516
46. Tennessee: +544


47. Mississippi: +622
48. Louisiana: +636



49. West Virginia: +761

50. Alabama: +831


51. Wyoming: +941

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Some major changes this month. In the 33rd month of Trump's presidency, we have no less than 8 - I repeat eight - states with their worst Trump approval ever: Oregon (-24), New Hampshire (-23), Iowa (-14), Nebraska (-2), Montana (-3), South Dakota (+1), Arkansas (+4) & Wyoming (+16!).

For the four early primary states, all the campaigning going on there lately seems to really be taking its rough toll on Trump's approval there! Even Nevada and South Carolina are very near their all time low Trump approvals this month.

However, even much more important than that, we finally have a new tipping point state, as PENNSYLVANIA replaces Nevada!

In addition, both Pennsylvania and Nevada are moved from being somewhat likely Democratic into the fairly likely category (from 40% to 50% confidence). Wisconsin is also moved from being 80% solidly Democratic and into he 90% solidly percentile.

Montana with its worst Trump approval ever, surpasses Kansas and is now the 34th most Democratic state. More impressive though, Oklahoma manages to leap ahead of no less than two states, both Kentucky and Idaho, making Oklahoma now the 43rd most Democratic state.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26

Just a note of caution here: Trump was at -20 nationwide on the day he was elected.

In case you were wondering why NYT had Clinton at a 90-98% chance of winning the 2016 election.

[eric82oslo]

Some major changes this month. In the 33rd month of Trump's presidency, we have no less than 8 - I repeat eight - states with their worst Trump approval ever: Oregon (-24), New Hampshire (-23), Iowa (-14), Nebraska (-2), Montana (-3), South Dakota (+1), Arkansas (+4) & Wyoming (+16!).

For the four early primary states, all the campaigning going on there lately seems to really be taking its rough toll on Trump's approval there! Even Nevada and South Carolina are very near their all time low Trump approvals this month.

However, even much more important than that, we finally have a new tipping point state, as PENNSYLVANIA replaces Nevada!

In addition, both Pennsylvania and Nevada are moved from being somewhat likely Democratic into the fairly likely category (from 40% to 50% confidence). Wisconsin is also moved from being 80% solidly Democratic and into he 90% solidly percentile.

Montana with its worst Trump approval ever, surpasses Kansas and is now the 34th most Democratic state. More impressive though, Oklahoma manages to leap ahead of no less than two states, both Kentucky and Idaho, making Oklahoma now the 43rd most Democratic state.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26

Just a note of caution here: Trump was at -20 nationwide on the day he was elected.

In case you were wondering why NYT had Clinton at a 90-98% chance of winning the 2016 election.

He was the outsider then, now he's the incumbent. It's not comparable.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Some major changes this month. In the 33rd month of Trump's presidency, we have no less than 8 - I repeat eight - states with their worst Trump approval ever: Oregon (-24), New Hampshire (-23), Iowa (-14), Nebraska (-2), Montana (-3), South Dakota (+1), Arkansas (+4) & Wyoming (+16!).

For the four early primary states, all the campaigning going on there lately seems to really be taking its rough toll on Trump's approval there! Even Nevada and South Carolina are very near their all time low Trump approvals this month.

However, even much more important than that, we finally have a new tipping point state, as PENNSYLVANIA replaces Nevada!

In addition, both Pennsylvania and Nevada are moved from being somewhat likely Democratic into the fairly likely category (from 40% to 50% confidence). Wisconsin is also moved from being 80% solidly Democratic and into he 90% solidly percentile.

Montana with its worst Trump approval ever, surpasses Kansas and is now the 34th most Democratic state. More impressive though, Oklahoma manages to leap ahead of no less than two states, both Kentucky and Idaho, making Oklahoma now the 43rd most Democratic state.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26

Just a note of caution here: Trump was at -20 nationwide on the day he was elected.

In case you were wondering why NYT had Clinton at a 90-98% chance of winning the 2016 election.

He was the outsider then, now he's the incumbent. It's not comparable.

I realize it's apples to oranges (we're now talking job approval, not likability), but still, I'm not convinced these numbers are as bad for Trump as they seem at first glance.

[eric82oslo]

Sorry, haven't posted a new map for a few months now, but basically not much has changed over the past 4-6 months. Trump saw record low approval in state after state during the autumn, but has managed to bounce back in the past two months, with the exception of Nevada, where he got his worst approval rating ever in January 2020 at -15%.

Here are the top 10 tipping point states during the past 37 months:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Nevada
3. Virginia
4. Ohio
5. Iowa
6. Maine
7. Arizona
8. New Mexico
9. Michigan
10. Wisconsin


And the top 10 tipping point states when only counting the month of January 2020:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Florida
3. Ohio
4. North Carolina
5. Arizona
6. Georgia
7. Virginia
8. Nebraska
9. Maine
10. Montana


The two rankings are surprisingly dissimilar, with the exception of Pennsylvania staying at the top in both, so maybe something really is changing in the race, or at least what relates to Trump's approval numbers in different states. Also notice that Ohio is in the top four in each ranking, contrary to popular belief/expert analysis. Both Virginia and Arizona in the top seven in both, while Maine is also in the top nine in both rankings. It is true that Trump has gotten significantly less popular in Florida during the past few months, actually during the past 6-12 months or so.

[eric82oslo]

After months of not posting any updates to this thread, despite some of the most dramatic changes to Trump's approval during his presidency - going from some of his worst ever during September to November to some of his best since at least his first 3-4 months in office, I've decided to finally do an important update. Not too much has changed in fact, but most of what was already evident 4-5 months ago, has just crystalized itself even more clearly now. There have been a few changes on the state level however. States like Nevada in particular, but even Florida, and perhaps even Georgia, have become more Democratic. On the flip side, Utah is transforming into a much more Trump state than before, while even a few northern states, in particular Minnesota I think, has let go of its worst anti Trump attitudes. During the past 5-10 months though, the most dramatic shifts have occurred in Nevada and Utah, both heading into completely different directions interestingly enough. Nevada used to be almost as pro Trump as Florida, today it is the exact opposite. Utah used to be almost as anti Trump as Pennsylvania almost, now it is much closer to states like Texas and Kansas. New York has moved up from being the 12th to the 10th most Democratic state.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26




Here's the list comprising January 2017 till January 2020:

1. D.C.: -2103


















2. Vermont: -1048
3. Hawaii: -1012

4. Massachusetts: -999


5. Maryland: -892
6. California: -875

7. Washington: -813


8. Rhode Island: -718

9. Connecticut: -680
10. New York: -671
11. Oregon: -669
12. Illinois: -660



13. New Jersey: -533

14. New Hampshire: -498
15. Minnesota: -488
16. Delaware: -453

17. Colorado: -440
18. Wisconsin: -411

19. Michigan: -382
20. New Mexico: -374

21. Maine: -312

22. Iowa: -291

23. Nevada: -207

24. Pennsylvania: -181 (the tipping point state!)

25. Virginia: -134

26. Ohio: -85

27. Arizona: -37


28. North Carolina: +38

29. Florida: +92

30. Georgia: +112
31. Utah: +121

32. Nebraska: +183
33. Indiana: +198

34. Missouri: +213
35. Montana: +222
36. Texas: +233
37. Kansas: +244

38. North Dakota: +267

39. Alaska: +313

40. South Dakota: +395
41. South Carolina: +396


42. Arkansas: +454

43. Oklahoma: +547

44. Kentucky: +562
45. Idaho: +591

46. Tennessee: +609

47. Louisiana: +684
48. Mississippi: +685



49. West Virginia: +841


50. Alabama: +919



51. Wyoming: +1057