Current 2020 map based on Morning Consult tracking

[eric82oslo]

Link to tracking website: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

The pollster Morning Consult has been tracking Trump's favorable and unfavorable numbers in every state starting in January 2017 and all the way till May 2018, a total of 17 months thus far. I have added together all the raw numbers for each state, and then ranked each state correspondingly. After 17 months, this is the 2020 map that is starting to emerge:

Results for this specific map:

Dem: 266
Rep: 235
Toss up: 37



This is the current full ranking state by state after Trump's first 17 months in office (from lowest to highest approval):

1. Hawaii: -463
2. Massachusetts: -428
3. Vermont: -422

4. Maryland: -369
5. California: -321
6. Rhode Island: -306

7. Washington: -288
8. Connecticut: -269
9. Oregon: -251
10. Illinois: -243
11. New York: -221
11. New Jersey: -221
13. Minnesota: -208

14. New Hampshire: -176
15. Colorado: -166
16. Delaware: -161
17. Wisconsin: -154
18. Michigan: -141
19. Maine: -112

20. New Mexico: -94
20. Iowa: -94
22. Pennsylvania: -41
23. Virginia: -27
24. Nevada: -14
25. Ohio: -9

26. Arizona: +43
27. North Carolina: +58
28. Georgia: +92
29. Florida: +96
30. Utah: +99

31. Missouri: +113
31. Indiana: +113
33. Nebraska: +147
34. Texas: +154
35. Kansas: +156
36. Montana: +161
37. North Dakota: +162

38. South Carolina: +205
39. South Dakota: +231
40. Alaska: +244
41. Arkansas: +263
42. Idaho: +276
43. Kentucky: +283
44. Tennessee: +287

45. Oklahoma: +320
46. Mississippi: +322
47. Louisiana: +360

48. West Virginia: +406
49. Alabama: +440

50. Wyoming: +544


Does the map above seem like a fair map come the fall of 2020?

[eric82oslo]

What's with Iowa?

Iowa started out quite positive towards Trump, but it soon started to change around May last year. I guess with the current trade war with Canada, Mexico and other close allies, Iowans aren't necessarily going to warm towards Trump anytime very soon.

21. Iowa: +9 +4 +4 +2 -6 -8 -9 -10 -11 -10 -10 -12 -10 -2 -11 -7 -7 (-94)

The entire upper midwest has quickly soured on Trump though, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois, even North Dakota and to some degree Indiana. This change has happened more abruptly than in most other regions.

[eric82oslo]

Top 5 states which have soured the most on Trump between January 2017 till May 2018:

1. Illinois: -31 pp (percentage points)
2. New Mexico: -31
3. New York: -29
4. Rhode Island: -28
5. Utah: -26

Top 10 (or bottom 10 perhaps) are rounded out with Vermont, Washington, Delaware, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Montana (last two shared).


Top 5 states which have kept the most loyal to Trump throughout this period:

1. Alabama: -6
2. Louisiana: -6
3. South Dakota: -7
4. Maryland: -8
5. West Virginia: -10

Rounding out this top 10 list: Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, Hawaii, Wyoming, Nevada (last two shared).

Hawaii however started out extremely sour on Trump already in January 2017, perhaps not so surprising having in collective memory Trump roaming the island in search of Obama's "non-existing" birth certificate.

[eric82oslo]

Link to tracking website: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

The pollster Morning Consult has been tracking Trump's favorable and unfavorable numbers in every state starting in January 2017 and all the way till May 2018, a total of 17 months thus far. I have added together all the raw numbers for each state, and then ranked each state correspondingly. After 17 months, this is the 2020 map that is starting to emerge:

Results for this specific map:

Dem: 266
Rep: 235
Toss up: 37

Another month has passed by and Morning Consult has updated their numbers adding one more month, the 18th so far, for June 2018.

Here are the new revised aggregated numbers for every state:

1. Hawaii: -486
2. Massachusetts: -453
3. Vermont: -443

4. Maryland: -391

5. California: -343
6. Rhode Island: -324
7. Washington: -310
8. Connecticut: -282
9. Oregon: -269
10. Illinois: -263
11. New York: -242
11. New Jersey: -234
13. Minnesota: -223

14. New Hampshire: -187
15. Colorado: -179
16. Delaware: -173
17. Wisconsin: -167
18. Michigan: -149

19. Maine: -113
20. New Mexico: -106
20. Iowa: -98

22. Pennsylvania: -46
23. Virginia: -31
24. Nevada: -22
25. Ohio: -12

26. Arizona: +43
27. North Carolina: +61

28. Georgia: +97
29. Utah: +99
30. Florida: +101
31. Missouri: +118
32. Indiana: +120

33. Nebraska: +152
34. Kansas: +162
35. Texas: +164
36. North Dakota: +167
37. Montana: +169

38. South Carolina: +218
39. South Dakota: +245
40. Alaska: +254
41. Arkansas: +278
42. Idaho: +290
43. Kentucky: +297
44. Tennessee: +302
45. Oklahoma: +336
46. Mississippi: +347
47. Louisiana: +383

48. West Virginia: +430

49. Alabama: +470

50. Wyoming: +568


The remarkable new shifts from June is that Utah is now less supportive of Trump than the "previous" swing state of Florida, plus Texas just barely surpassing Kansas in its pro Trump attitudes, as well as Montana becoming slightly more pro Trump than North Dakota.


And this is the new map:

Dem: 246
Rep: 224
Toss up: 68


In other words, still too close to call for a generic Democrat to claim victory over Trump this far ahead of the 2020 election, although for every month which passes things are starting to look bleaker for the incumbent.

At this point as of June 2018, Virginia is the tipping point state, while Ohio is the closest state. New as of this month (June) is that Arizona now appears closer even than Pennsylvania, which in the long run could turn out to be a significant development. If trends from the most recent months continue into the current month of July, I will have to paint Pennsylvania as pink next month and Georgia as a shade darker blue, same color as Florida has already been metamorphosed into. Imagine that there are currently 29 (+DC) more Democratic states than Florida, it's more than a tad surreal.


How I chose to shade each state:

Within 50 PP (percentage points): Toss up
50-99: 30%
100-149: 40%
150-199: 50%
200-249: 60%
250-299: 70%
300-349: 80%
350-> 90%

[eric82oslo]

I highly doubt that VA is a tossup while IA is dem-leaning...

I have no clue what's going on in Virginia - together with Florida, it's clearly one of the states where Trump's numbers are holding up the best so far. When it comes to Iowa however, they will be hardly hit by the trade war in general and the near embargo of agricultural products starting to be implemented by China more specifically, and some Iowa farmers might have started to feel that already - though it's too early to say if the Morning Consult numbers are already reflecting that reality.

[eric82oslo]

Link to tracking website: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/


And this is the new map as of June 2018:

Dem: 246
Rep: 224
Toss up: 68


In other words, still too close to call for a generic Democrat to claim victory over Trump this far ahead of the 2020 election, although for every month which passes things are starting to look bleaker for the incumbent.

At this point as of June 2018, Virginia is the tipping point state, while Ohio is the closest state.


How I chose to shade each state:

Within 50 PP (percentage points): Toss up
50-99: 30%
100-149: 40%
150-199: 50%
200-249: 60%
250-299: 70%
300-349: 80%
350-> 90%

Another month has passed by and Morning Consult has updated their numbers adding one more month, the 19th so far, for July 2018.

Here are the new revised aggregated numbers for every state:

1. Hawaii: -509

2. Massachusetts: -480
3. Vermont: -467

4. Maryland: -412

5. California: -366

6. Rhode Island: -345
7. Washington: -333

8. Connecticut: -298
9. Oregon: -289
10. Illinois: -284
11. New York: -261

11. New Jersey: -246
13. Minnesota: -237
14. New Hampshire: -201

15. Colorado: -189
16. Delaware: -188
17. Wisconsin: -182
18. Michigan: -160

19. Maine: -121
20. New Mexico: -118
21. Iowa: -104

22. Pennsylvania: -53

23. Virginia: -37 (tipping point)
24. Nevada: -29
25. Ohio: -13


26. Arizona: +43

27. North Carolina: +61
28. Utah: +98

29. Georgia: +101
30. Florida: +105
31. Missouri: +126
31. Indiana: +126

33. Nebraska: +157
34. North Dakota: +171
35. Texas: +172
35. Kansas: +172
37. Montana: +173

38. South Carolina: +231

39. South Dakota: +260
40. Alaska: +269
41. Arkansas: +292

42. Idaho: +307
43. Kentucky: +312
44. Tennessee: +319

45. Oklahoma: +351
46. Mississippi: +371

47. Louisiana: +407

48. West Virginia: +460

49. Alabama: +500

50. Wyoming: +599


New of this month is that Utah is now not only more critical to Trump than Florida, but even more than the state of Georgia. Some kind of Evan McMullin/Mitt Romney/Mia Love ticket is looking every month a little stronger for Utah.

This month's map (only slight changes from last month):

Dem: 266 (+20)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 48 (-20)

The new this month is that Pennsylvania has moved from toss up to ever so slightly lean Democratic, which means that with this current map, the Democratic ticket has already amassed 266 of the 270 EVs they'll need to win. Even better for the Democrats, 3 of the 4 remaining toss up states are leaning Democratic, while only Arizona is leaning towards Trump.

Other significant changes include Iowa going from lean (40%) to likely (50%) Democratic and that Georgia has shifted from lean to likely Republican.

Virginia remains the tipping point state, with Nevada and Pennsylvania being the next most likely options.

Trump still remains an underdog to win reelection, yet with such a close map he probably has a 45% chance to win at this point.

[eric82oslo]

What, is this map a lazy throwback to the last Republican President running for re-election? If Virginia is the tipping point state in 2020, Trump is beyond doomed. Fortunately for him, it won’t be.

Trump even has a 20% approval rating in D.C. according to this last Morning Consult poll. I would have expected him to have no more than 7-8% there honestly.

The reason for a lot of reversion to the mean (although there are many examples of the opposite too like Utah, Florida, Arizona and even Maine) could be that instead of governing like a disrupter from the center, having previously been supporting Democrats, Trump has almost without exceptions (although there are a couple like the trade wars), governed like a very conservative Republican. Also his trade wars are likely to hurt his sweet spot states the most, including many in the Midwest and the rust belt. Most countries like EU and China have specifically targeted products from Trump states, like corn from Iowa, Harley Davidsons from Wisconsin, bourbon whiskey from Kentucky and so on.

Also the top 5 and bottom 5 states when it comes to his drop in approval from his first two months in office (January-February 2017) till the last two months of the poll (June-July 2018):

1. New York: -26
2. Illinois: -25,5
3. Utah: -25
4. New Mexico: -23,5
5. Washington: -21,5
(also interesting...the toss up state of...
6. Nevada: -20,5)

46. Maryland: -6,5 (already started out strongly hating him)
47. Mississippi: -6,5
48. West Virginia: -6
49. Alabama: -5,5
50. South Dakota: -5 (might have been simply a polling blip as none of its neighbour states are showing such a small drop in support)

Of the top 7 states with the strongest drop, all but two are located in the west. Interestingly enough though, Arizona and California are not among them, although they've both dropped more than the national average as well. In other words, Trump is struggling more than ever in the west, while still keeping most of his popularity in at least half of the Southern states, with a couple of major exceptions like Kentucky and Oklahoma where he's fallen more than the average. His fall in states like Florida, Virginia and North Carolina has been close to or at the national average, although he started out very popular in Florida as we all know by now.

[eric82oslo]

How is VA a toss up in this map? Are their minds stuck in the last decade?

Virginia has never been worse than -11 in any single month, and during the last 3 months their disapproval has only ranged between -4 and -6. For the first six months of his presidency, they actually gave him a positive approval. Two months (February and May '17) they gave him a +10 approval. Virginians average approval of Trump so far this year has been -6, although for his entire 19 months in office, it's only been -2. If Virginians don't improve their views on the president in the next 2-3 months however, it will become lean Democratic just like happened with Pennsylvania this month. You might still wonder why they're still not more negative. One reason might be that almost no other state has more millionaires than Virginia, so few other states have benefited more directly on Republicans' huge tax break for the rich. Even Mark Warner was barely reelected in 2014, so maybe the state actually is reverting somewhat to the mean. Too early to say yet I guess. I don't expect Virginia to be a toss up two years from now, and perhaps not the tipping point state either. After all, it's really close between 4 states, including Ohio, when it comes to tipping point status, and another 5 states are fairly close as well.

Virginia's -6 in July was the same as for Iowa, 5 percentage points lower approval than Ohio and Utah, 6 pp lower than Arizona and North Carolina and 10 pp lower than Florida and Georgia, so it's not really as lopsided as you might think. 10% more Democratic than Florida, still sounds quite Democratic to me. Too early to freak out when there's still more than two years till election day.

The difference up to Pennsylvania is only 16 pp. Divided on 18 months of sampling, that means the average monthly difference between the two states is less than 1 pp net approval. A little bit of poor sampling could have prevented Pennsylvania from becoming the tipping point state at this point instead.

Also notice that it's not really Virginia which has moved in a Republican direction, it's rather the entire Midwest, including Ohio, which has moved in a strongly anti-Trump direction, although the shift has been even more pronounced in western states. Even Virginia's northern neighbour Maryland, has not shifted hard against Trump, in fact its among the states that have shifted the least.

[eric82oslo]

The ten states closest to being the 2020 tipping point right now, as of July 2018 and only of course if Trump remains atop the Republican ticket which after this wildest of weeks of course is highly questionable, perhaps/probably even unlikely:

1. Virginia
2. Nevada
3. Pennsylvania
4. Ohio
5. Iowa
6. Arizona
7. New Mexico
8. Maine
9. North Carolina
10. Michigan

[eric82oslo]

Approval ratings in 2018 do not, by any means, indicate 2020 electoral results.

We know, but then again, what are all you bored clowns gonna do for two years?

[eric82oslo]

Link to tracking website: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/


And this is the new map as of June 2018:

Dem: 246
Rep: 224
Toss up: 68


At this point as of June 2018, Virginia is the tipping point state, while Ohio is the closest state.


How I chose to shade each state:

Within 50 PP (percentage points): Toss up
50-99: 30%
100-149: 40%
150-199: 50%
200-249: 60%
250-299: 70%
300-349: 80%
350-> 90%

This month's map - as of July 2018 (only slight changes from last month):

Dem: 266 (+20)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 48 (-20)

A new month has passed, this time adding the 20th month - August 2018 - of approval polling for Trump. Here's the new full list:

1. Hawaii: -532
2. Massachusetts: -505

3. Vermont: -498

4. Maryland: -435

5. California: -392
6. Rhode Island: -367
7. Washington: -358

8. Connecticut: -314
9. Oregon: -313
10. Illinois: -304

11. New York: -279
12. New Jersey: -260
13. Minnesota: -254

14. New Hampshire: -214
15. Delaware: -206
16. Colorado: -201

17. Wisconsin: -193
18. Michigan: -171

19. New Mexico: -134
20. Maine: -128
21. Iowa: -112

22. Pennsylvania: -60

23. Virginia: -42 (tipping point)
24. Nevada: -33
25. Ohio: -18


26. Arizona: +41

27. North Carolina: +63

28. Utah: +102
29. Florida: +106
30. Georgia: +106
31. Indiana: +132
32. Missouri: +133

33. Nebraska: +158
34. Montana: +176
35. Texas: +177
36. North Dakota: +177
37. Kansas: +179

38. South Carolina: +243

39. South Dakota: +275
40. Alaska: +278

41. Arkansas: +309
42. Idaho: +321
43. Kentucky: +326
44. Tennessee: +338

45. Oklahoma: +360
46. Mississippi: +397

47. Louisiana: +431

48. West Virginia: +491

49. Alabama: +530

50. Wyoming: +632


The changes in ranking from last month:

*Delaware surpassed Colorado, and is now the 15th most anti-Trump/Democratic state
*New Mexico surpassed Maine, and is now the 19th most anti-Trump/Democratic state
*Florida is back ahead of or equal to Georgia, and is thus the 29th most anti-Trump/Democratic state
*Montana surpassed no less than three states - Texas, North Dakota and Kansas - and is thus the 34th most anti-Trump/Democratic state, although just barely


And here's the new map, encompassing January 2017-August 2018:

Dem: 266 (no change)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 48 (no change)

The biggest map change this month is probably Utah going from lean (30%) to likely (40%) Republican. Some states have also gone from strongly (80%) to super strongly (90%) partisan. Other than that the map remains relatively unchanged, with the same four toss up states as last month and with Virginia continuing to be the most likely tipping point state, followed closely by Nevada, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

[eric82oslo]

Trump probably already had some disapproval ratings in the mid west, but one reason why he did well, is because hillary clinton had even higher disapproval there (and i think pollings even underestimated the true extent of that, just like they overestimated clinton's performance in michigan primaries). Trump's issues also appealed more to Rust Belt voters, but i think they feel kind off disappointed or even cheated on. I think some had expected that Trump would've had a different attitude if elected as president, and others might not have seen Trump being elected as president, but issues like immigration, the wall, taking on wall street and the establishment all appeal to voters in the rust belt, while hillary clinton was really unpopular. The Hillary Clinton card disappears, and Trump turns out to be more of a generic republican anyway, with a bad communication style and not being really presidential (not being a president of all Americans, but only his voter base), and that explains why those rust belt states shift further away from Trump now.

I agree with all of this. Excellent analysis.

Btw two more months have passed, so it's time for me to put together an updated map and release the latest numbers. (I chose not to do it last month, since the changes from the previous month were almost non-existant, so I felt it was kind of a waste of time.)

PS: The fact that Trump is much more popular in Florida than in the average swing state like Pennsylvania, Virginia and Nevada bore out in these midterms, as Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson were fairly clear favourites to win, according to the most recent polling, while both seem to have lost (although by less than a percentage point) in the end. No other Democratic candidate for Senator or Governor lost in any of the other swing states as far as I can remember, not even Scott Walker's relatively obscure opponent. I'm not considering Arizona or Georgia as swing states just yet, though at least one of them might very well be come 2020 - we'll see. I'm also not including Ohio or Iowa, since Trump won both of those by an almost double digit margin in 2016.

[eric82oslo]

And here's the new map, encompassing January 2017-August 2018:

Dem: 266 (no change)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 48 (no change)

The biggest map change this month is probably Utah going from lean (30%) to likely (40%) Republican. Some states have also gone from strongly (80%) to super strongly (90%) partisan. Other than that the map remains relatively unchanged, with the same four toss up states as last month and with Virginia continuing to be the most likely tipping point state, followed closely by Nevada, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Two more months have passed, we've now up to 22 months - up until October 2018 - of approval polling for Trump. Here's the new full list:

1. Hawaii: -594
2. Massachusetts: -558
3. Vermont: -555

4. Maryland: -486

5. California: -442
6. Rhode Island: -411
7. Washington: -407

8. Oregon: -351

9. Illinois: -346
10. Connecticut: -346
11. New York: -320

12. New Jersey: -292
13. Minnesota: -285

14. New Hampshire: -241
15. Delaware: -238
16. Colorado: -226
17. Wisconsin: -217

18. Michigan: -194
19. New Mexico: -164

20. Maine: -148
21. Iowa: -130

22. Pennsylvania: -74
23. Virginia: -52 (tipping point)

24. Nevada: -47
25. Ohio: -20


26. Arizona: +40

27. North Carolina: +63
28. Utah: +95

29. Florida: +110
30. Georgia: +115
31. Indiana: +145
32. Missouri: +147

33. Nebraska: +172
34. Texas: +190
35. Kansas: +190
36. Montana: +192

37. North Dakota: +200

38. South Carolina: +272
39. Alaska: +296
40. South Dakota: +296

41. Arkansas: +336

42. Idaho: +352
43. Kentucky: +359
44. Tennessee: +377
45. Oklahoma: +394

46. Mississippi: +441

47. Louisiana: +472

48. West Virginia: +547

49. Alabama: +585

50. Wyoming: +691


The changes in ranking from last month:

*Oregon and Illinois both surpasses Connecticut (technically a draw). Connecticut thus drops in its anti-Trump ranking from 8th to 10th.
*Texas surpasses Montana for 34th place.
*Kansas surpasses both Montana and North Dakota and is now ranked 35th.
*Also Utah continues to distance itself from Florida and Georgia. Utah is not looking much better for Trump right now than North Carolina.

And here are the newest map:

Dem: 279 (+13)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 35 (-13)

Right now, only three more toss up states remain (Ohio, Arizona and Nevada), as Virginia has just eeked passed the margical 50 point limit and is thus now considered lean Democratic. Guess the majority of you will be pretty happy about that lol. That also means that whoever ends up as the Democratic nominee in 2020, right now looks like she or he will have the sufficient amount of electoral votes in the bag, since a winning candidate being able to put Virginia in the bag would end up with 279 EVs, 9 more than absolutely needed. (Or 10 more I guess, since Democrats managed to take back the house.)

PS: Nevada is right on the border to become lean Democratic now too, and probably will starting from next month onwards, which will make Trump's worries even greater.

Top 10 most important battle ground states ranked after how close they are to become the 2020 tipping point state (states like Pennsylvania & Florida will always be important of course, simply because they have so many EVs, but this ranking does not consider the weight of EVs):

1. Virginia
2. Nevada
3. Pennsylvania
4. Ohio
5. Iowa
6. Arizona
7. Maine
8. New Mexico
9. North Carolina
10. Michigan

Utah is 11th (!!), Florida currently 12th, but this is almost certain, I would think, to change now that Florida voters have granted voting rights back to 1.4-1.5 million previously convicted felons. It is said that 18-21% of the African American adult population of Florida previously didn't have the right to vote. It is estimated that perhaps as few as 20-30% of these previous felons would actually bother to vote, but even that could have a huge impact obviously in such an always hard fought state. 13th on the list is Wisconsin.

[eric82oslo]

Junk poll, there is no way Trump is less popular in swingy, competitive NH than in deep blue ME, CO and MI.

Are you sure? The two house seats in New Hampshire this year leaned far more Democratic than in either Maine, Colorado or Michigan. (Governor races are a whole 'nother ballpark of course and is hardly influenced by partisanship at all, just look at Massachussetts this year.)

[eric82oslo]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Another two months have passed, which means that we now have Trump approval numbers for every state for all of 2017 as well as all of 2018 - in total his 24 first months in office.


Here is Trump's accumulated scorecard after two years in office:

1. Hawaii: -642
2. Massachusetts: -613
3. Vermont: -611


4. Maryland: -538

5. California: -497
6. Washington: -452

7. Rhode Island: -447

8. Oregon: -393
9. Illinois: -387
10. Connecticut: -386
11. New York: -365

12. New Jersey: -323
13. Minnesota: -309

14. Delaware: -267
15. New Hampshire: -262
16. Colorado: -252

17. Wisconsin: -239
18. Michigan: -215

19. New Mexico: -199
20. Maine: -163

21. Iowa: -148

22. Pennsylvania: -85
23. Nevada: -63 (tipping point!)
24. Virginia: -59

25. Ohio: -23


26. Arizona: +30

27. North Carolina: +62

28. Utah: +104
29. Florida: +106
30. Georgia: +112

31. Indiana: +151
32. Missouri: +152
33. Nebraska: +176
34. Kansas: +188
35. Texas: +194
36. Montana: +197
37. North Dakota: +198


38. South Carolina: +277
39. Alaska: +298

40. South Dakota: +314
41. Arkansas: +346

42. Idaho: +363
43. Kentucky: +373
44. Tennessee: +397

45. Oklahoma: +408

46. Mississippi: +453
47. Louisiana: +486


48. West Virginia: +576

49. Alabama: +607


50. Wyoming: +727


All ranking changes since October:

*Washington is now more anti-Trump than Rhode Island. Only five states have given Trump a more miserable approval rating. The Starbucks filled Seattle does not fit very well into the current government philosophy.

*Delaware is now finally more anti Trump than New Hampshire, I guess to noone's really big surprise and almost everyone's expectations and gut feelings.

*Very importantly, perhaps as a result of the very immigration intensive Trump midterm campaign, Nevada has now become more critical of Trump than Virginia. It's important because for the first time in many, many months, Virginia is no longer considered the most likely tipping point state in 2020. Instead that honour now goes to Nevada, a state until recently quite supportive of Trump's agenda. That is clearly changing.

*Also somewhat importantly, but not surprisingly, Utah is no longer lean Republican, but rather considered likely Republican. The senatorial campaign of Mitt Romney might have had an influence there.


Here's the new map after 2 years of Trump:

Dem: 285 (+6)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 29 (-6)

Nevada has moved out of toss up status and into lean Dem. Ohio and Arizona are the only ones remaining as toss up.

Most importantly, Virginia is no longer considered the most likely tipping point state. Instead, Nevada is now regarded as slightly more likely to become the be all, end all state of 2020.

Here are the 26 most important battleground states of 2020, ranked after how far off they are from the current tipping point of Nevada:

1. Nevada (0)
2. Virginia (+4)
3. Pennsylvania (-22)
4. Ohio (+40)

5. Iowa (-85)
6. Arizona (+93)
7. Maine (-100)

8. North Carolina (+125)
9. New Mexico (-136)

10. Michigan (-152)
11. Utah (+167)
12. Florida (+169)
13. Georgia (+175)
14. Wisconsin (-176)
15. Colorado (-189)
16. New Hampshire (-199)

17. Delaware (-204)
18. Indiana (+214)
19. Missouri (+215)
20. Nebraska (+239)
21. Minnesota (-246)

22. Kansas (+251)
23. Texas (+257)
24. New Jersey (-260)
25. Montana (+260)
26. North Dakota (+261)

You read that right - Nebraska is currently a more likely tipping point state than Minnesota! Even more so if Amy Klobuchar ends up on the Democratic ticket lol.

There's currently little doubt though that the first tier of battleground states in 2020 are likely to consist of the quartet of Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio - three of them having a double digit EV count.

PS: From now on, I will update this chart and map every two to three months, as the changes are only minor from one month to the next. In 2020 I might update it even more seldom, perhaps every four months or if anything major changes, like the tipping point state or any state moves into or out of toss up territory.

[eric82oslo]

The average Trump approval rating in each state during his two first years in office:

1. Hawaii: -26.8%
2. Massachusetts: -25.5%
3. Vermont: -25.5%

4. Maryland: -22.4%
5. California: -20.7%

6. Washington: -18.8%
7. Rhode Island: -18.6%
8. Oregon: -16.4%
9. Illinois: -16.1%
10. Connecticut: -16.1%
11. New York: -15.2%

12. New Jersey: -13.5%
13. Minnesota: -12.9%
14. Delaware: -11.1%
15. New Hampshire: -10.9%
16. Colorado: -10.5%
17. Wisconsin: -10.0%

18. Michigan: -9.0%
19. New Mexico: -8.3%
20. Maine: -6.8%
21. Iowa: -6.2%

22. Pennsylvania: -3.5%
23. Nevada: -2.6% (tipping point)
24. Virginia: -2.5%
25. Ohio: -1.0%


26. Arizona: +1.2%
27. North Carolina: +2.6%
28. Utah: +4.3%
29. Florida: +4.4%
30. Georgia: +4.7%

31. Indiana: +6.3%
32. Missouri: +6.3%
33. Nebraska: +7.3%
34. Kansas: +7.8%
35. Texas: +8.1%
36. Montana: +8.2%
37. North Dakota: +8.2%

38. South Carolina: +11.5%
39. Alaska: +12.4%
40. South Dakota: +13.1%
41. Arkansas: +14.4%

42. Idaho: +15.1%
43. Kentucky: +15.5%
44. Tennessee: +16.5%
45. Oklahoma: +17%
46. Mississippi: +18.9%

47. Louisiana: +20.2%
48. West Virginia: +24.0%

49. Alabama: +25.3%

50. Wyoming: +30.3%


9 states within +/- 5% (close to true toss up), 21 states within +/- 10% (still battleground states at this point, though Wisconsin seems to be slipping away at this point, soon leaving only 20). The remaining 30 states + D.C. have consistenly had either double digit approval or disapproval ratings for Trump, and are thus probably too far off at this point to really be taken seriously, unless something truely fundamental will change the race, like an economic recession, a war breaking out or a major terrorist attack. Including in those 30 less or non-competitive states, we find states previously thought of as potential battlegrounds like New Hampshire, Minnesota and perhaps Colorado. However, Texas is still in the single digits, if only barely.

The six states within 3.5% together amasses an impressive 83 EVs, the nine states within 5% combine for a full and sweet 134 EVs.

[eric82oslo]

Pbrower2a, you have completely misunderstood everything about this thread and about my project. This project has NEVER been about figuring out whether Trump or Democrats are the favourites to win, as you seem so obsessed about as an extreme Democratic hack. Nothing wrong with that at all, but you pretend like you're some kind of a neutral observer (LMFAO). This project has always been about implementing the latest science in the way of statistics - something I've always cared deeply about - in order to figure out which states are more likely to end up as the crucial battleground states come 2020. That's my whole project. You've criticized me from day one for doing this, like there's something unethical about it. The truth is it's never been done or approached before, so who are you to know whether it will work or not? I am obviously as clueless as you and everyone else about the final results, just like Colombus was when he sailed towards Hispaniola and expected to find India. The one thing I know about statistics is that accumulated statistics ALWAYS - and EVERY SINGLE TIME - trumps one time statistics. According to you, only the latest numbers are important. Well, my friend, you are sadly wrong, and it just goes to show how incredibly ignorant you are when it comes to the world of statistics.

[eric82oslo]

The average of many, many, many, many, many, many polls will almost always come closer to the final result than any one single poll, even if it's the very last one released before the election. That's my whole point pbrower, and most empirical data suggests that I'm right. That's why Superdata, Gigadata, whatever they prefer to call it, has become the most lucrative and biggest business in the world over the past 4-5-6-7-8 years. The more data you are in possession of, the more detailed you can predict people's behaviour. Companies like Facebook regularily pay out billions in order to get their hands on the latest Ultradata. To claim that Big Data is not a thing, and to keep pretending that only the smallest of the tiniest data can tell you anything, is the same as publically admitting that you are a moron, or a know nothing if you prefer.

[eric82oslo]

Morning Consult has released its Trump approval numbers for January, it's 25th consecutive month. Thanks to Trump's "beautiful" shutdown, he managed to obtain his worst monthly approval in no less than 17 states! The 17 states with record high Trump disapproval and where he stands in those states at the moment:


Maryland: -30%
California: -30% (previous low: -29%)
New York: -24%
New Jersey: -20%
Colorado: -18% (previous low: -16%!)
Wisconsin: -16% (!)
Iowa: -14% (previous low: -11%!!!)
Nevada: -13% (previous low: -12%!)
Pennsylvania: -10% (!)
Arizona: -7% (!)
Florida: -4% (previous low: -3%!)
Missouri: -2% (first time ever in negative territory, previous low: 0%!)
Texas: -1% (first time ever in negative territory, previous low: +1%!!)
Nebraska: 0% (previous low: +1%)
Montana: +1%
Alaska: +1%
South Dakota: +6%

The traits these 17 states have in common are that they are either heavily latino states, agricultural states, rustbelt states or urban, populous states. Region-wise we are very much talking about the north (including Alaska and Montana), the rustbelt, the west, the northeast and the larger D.C. area.


The 26 most likely tipping point/battleground states come 2020 after Trump's 25th month in office has finished:

1. Nevada: most likely tipping point state at the moment (average Trump disapproval -3%, though -13% in January)
2. Virginia: +0.2% higher Trump approval on average, compared to Nevada
3. Pennsylvania: -0.8% less Trump approval, more Democratic on average
4. Ohio: +1.9%

5. Iowa: -3.5%
6. Arizona: +3.9%
7. Maine: -4.0%

8. North Carolina: +5.3%
9. New Mexico: -5.7% (has been very critical of Trump lately, will likely drop on the ranking during 2019 and/or 2020)
10. Michigan: -6.2%
11. Utah: +6.9% (perhaps the most volatile state during Trump's presidency together with New Hampshire - wants to like Trump since he's a Republican, but just can't seem to settle for such an amoral leader)
12. Florida: +7.1%
13. Wisconsin: -7.2%
14. Georgia: +7.4%
15. Colorado: -7.8%
16. New Hampshire: -8.2%
17. Delaware: -8.2%

18. Missouri: +9.0%
19. Indiana: +9.2%
20. Nebraska: +10.0%
21. Minnesota: -10.1%
22. Kansas: +10.6%
23. Texas: +10.7%
24. New Jersey: -10.7%
25. Montana: +10.9%
26. North Dakota: +11.1%

Remember that these numbers are all relative to Nevada, the current tipping point state, so the actual Trump averages are all either 3% worse or better, so for instance North Dakota's real average is +8.1%, while New Jersey's is -13.7%.

Either in March or April I'll update the full list again with the corresponding map. Could be interesting changes if Trump decides to plunge or dive right into another shutdown. A couple of rural, conservative states like Wyoming and Idaho seemed practically unbothered by the (first) shutdown, while many other states seemed really annoyed by the shutdown, and Trump's approval fell quite significantly in those states. The sharpest falls in Trump's state approval from December '18 till January '19 were down -10% in New Hampshire (!!), -9% in Utah (!!), -9% in South Dakota (!), -7% in Virginia (!), -7% in Nebraska, -5% in Maine, -5% in Missouri, -5% in Minnesota, -5% in Texas, -5% in North Dakota, -4% in Pennsylvania, -4% in Iowa, -4% in Wisconsin, -4% in Indiana, -4% in Washington, -4% in Tennessee, -4% in Mississippi and -4% in Vermont. Out of these 18 hardest hitted states by Trump's shutdown, a majority (up to 12 out of 18) could in fact at this point be classified as possible 2020 battlegrounds. That's not a good omen for Trump at all. The most liberal and most conservative states are more or less set at this point. The important battleground states in the middle however are still very much in flux, as proven so vividly by the dramatic and epic falls of states such as New Hampshire, Utah and Virginia in January. Food for thought.

[eric82oslo]

December 2018:

Dem: 285 (+6)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 29 (-6)

Trump's February 2019 approval rating has been released. They've also completely upgraded and renovated their site, so you can follow the change in each state from month to month through a scrolldown and a graph, quite neat. (https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/) It also let me add the Washington D.C. numbers for the first time.

Trump's accumulated scorecard after 26 months in office:


1. D.C.: -1439







2. Hawaii: -696
3. Vermont: -679
4. Massachusetts: -674

5. Maryland: -594
6. California: -557
7. Washington: -507

8. Rhode Island: -484
9. Oregon: -439
10. Connecticut: -432
11. Illinois: -431
12. New York: -411

13. New Jersey: -358
14. Minnesota: -346

15. New Hampshire: -298
16. Delaware: -294
17. Colorado: -282
18. Wisconsin: -269
19. Michigan: -245
20. New Mexico: -227

21. Maine: -187
22. Iowa: -172
23. Pennsylvania: -102

24. Nevada: -85 (tipping point!)
25. Virginia: -74
26. Ohio: -34


27. Arizona: +16
28. North Carolina: +58

29. Florida: +100
30. Utah: +100
31. Georgia: +109
32. Missouri: +155
33. Indiana: +160
34. Nebraska: +179
35. Kansas: +195
36. Texas: +196
37. Montana: +197

38. North Dakota: +210
39. South Carolina: +298

40. Alaska: +301
41. South Dakota: +325
42. Arkansas: +364
43. Idaho: +397

44. Kentucky: +404
45. Oklahoma: +425
46. Tennessee: +425
47. Mississippi: +484

48. Louisiana: +520

49. West Virginia: +622
50. Alabama: +654

51. Wyoming: +784


For the first time Pennsylvania stands at more than -100 negative points, meaning Trump is gonna have a hard time winning the state, even if it's still solidly one of the three most likely tipping point states. Also for the first time in more than a year, Florida is now ranked as a more likely Democratic pick up than Utah. In addition, take a good look at how close Trump's approval has come to fall into negative territory in Arizona during the last few months. It currently stands at only +16 there.

Other than that, only minor changes to the ranking. Trump's approval rating picked up a couple of percentage points from January in most states, though January marked his worst approval rating ever in a third of the states.

Dem: 285 (no change)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 29 (no change)


Here are the 26 most important battleground states of 2020, ranked after how far off they are from the current tipping point of Nevada:

1. Nevada (0)
2. Virginia (+11)
3. Pennsylvania (-17)

4. Ohio (+51)
5. Iowa (-87)

6. Arizona (+101)
7. Maine (-102)
8. New Mexico (-142)
9. North Carolina (+143)

10. Michigan (-160)
11. Wisconsin (-184)
12. Florida (+185)
13. Utah (+185)
14. Georgia (+194)
15. Colorado (-197)

16. Delaware (-209)
17. New Hampshire (-213)
18. Missouri (+240)
19. Indiana (+245)

20. Minnesota (-261)
21. Nebraska (+264)

22. New Jersey (-273)
23. Kansas (+280)
24. Texas (+281)
25. Montana (+282)
26. North Dakota (+295)


Notice that Wisconsin has moved up from 14th to 11th on the list, while Utah is down two from 11th till 13th. Minnesota has moved up from 21st to 20th, while New Jersey is up two from 24th to 22nd. At the same time Texas is down one further spot. Texas won't decide the election this time around either - surprise, surprise!

[eric82oslo]

I've looked at another metric, namely how many months each state has given Trump a positive, neutral and negative approval rating during the 26 months currently having been tracked by Morning Consult. This is what I found:


States by number of months with positive, neutral & negative Trump approval

1. Washington D.C.: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
2. Hawaii: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
3. Vermont: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
4. Massachusetts: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
5. Maryland: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
6. California: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)
7. Rhode Island: 0/0/26 (100% Democratic)

8. Washington: 1/0/25 (96% Democratic)
9. Oregon: 1/0/25 (96% Democratic)
10. Connecticut: 1/0/25 (96% Democratic)
11. New Hampshire: 1/0/25 (96% Democratic)
12. New Jersey: 1/1/24 (92% Democratic, 4% Trumpian)
13. Colorado: 2/0/24 (92% Democratic)
14. Illinois: 3/0/23 (88.5% Democratic)
15. Minnesota: 3/0/23 (88.5% Democratic)
16. Wisconsin: 3/0/23 (88.5% Democratic)
17. Michigan: 3/0/23 (88.5% Democratic)
18. Maine: 3/0/23 (88.5% Democratic)
19. New York: 4/0/22 (85% Democratic)
20. Delaware: 4/0/22 (85% Democratic)
21. Iowa: 4/0/22 (85% Democratic)
22. Pennsylvania: 4/1/21 (81% Democratic, 15% Trumpian)
23. New Mexico: 5/0/21 (81% Democratic)
24. Nevada: 5/1/20 (77% Democratic, 19% Trumpian) [tipping point!]
25. Virginia: 6/0/19 (73% Democratic)
26. Ohio: 6/3/17 (65% Democratic, 27% Trumpian)

27. Arizona: 9/3/14 (54% Democratic, 35% Trumpian) [toss up]


28. Utah: 14/2/10 (54% Trumpian, 38.5% Democratic) [toss up]
29. North Carolina: 14/4/8 (54% Trumpian, 31% Democratic) [toss up]

30. Florida: 18/2/6 (69% Trumpian, 27% Democratic)
31. Georgia: 20/2/4 (77% Trumpian, 15% Democratic)
32. Indiana: 24/1/1 (92% Trumpian, 4% Democratic)
33. Kansas: 24/1/1 (92% Trumpian, 4% Democratic)
34. Montana: 24/2/0 (92% Trumpian, 0% Democratic)
35. Missouri: 25/0/1 (96% Trumpian)
36. Nebraska: 25/1/0 (96% Trumpian, 0% Democratic)
37. Texas: 25/1/0 (96% Trumpian, 0% Democratic)

38. North Dakota: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
39. South Carolina: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
40. Alaska: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
41. South Dakota: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
42. Arkansas: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
43. Idaho: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
44. Kentucky: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
45. Oklahoma: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
46. Tennessee: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
47. Mississippi: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
48. Louisiana: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
49. West Virginia: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
50. Alabama: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)
51. Wyoming: 26/0/0 (100% Trumpian)


These numbers above would translate into this 2020 map:

That gives us this current 2020 projection:

Dem: 303 EVs (25 states + DC)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 203 EVs (22 states)
Toss up: 32 EVs (3 states)


If we're looking at this way of measuring states, Trump's reelection prospects are looking even more bleak than originally thought. Only Ohio and Florida are currently leaning towards one side, and could thus still change in time for 2020. All other states - including Nevada and New Mexico, though except the 3 toss up states obviously - are at least likely, though the vast majority solidly, expected to go one way or the other.

At this point, the most toss upy state is - believe it or not - Utah! Though closely followed by Arizona, then North Carolina.


PS: Next time I'll present this model, I think I'll include a one percent lead as being a toss up as well, that would change the numbers for quite a few states, making them feel more competitive (perhaps stretch it to two percent, we'll see).

[eric82oslo]

February 2019:

Dem: 285 (no change)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 29 (no change)

I still haven't done a trend analysis based on the past 26 months of state polling by Morning Consult, so I thought I might try it for the first time this month. Since it's almost impossible for me to calculate the popular vote percentage, I'll go by the tipping point state instead. In 2016 it was Wisconsin by a hair's breath, this year it's shaping up to be Nevada (although Virginia and Pennsylvania are just as likely possibilities).


How each state are expected to vote as of February 2019:

1. Washington D.C: D+55.3%
2. Hawaii: D+26.8%
3. Vermont: D+26.1%
4. Massachusetts: D+25.9%
5. Maryland: D+22.8%
6. California: D+21.4%
7. Washington: D+19.5%
8. Rhode Island: D+18.6%
9. Oregon: D+16.9%
10. Connecticut: D+16.6%
11. Illinois: D+16.6%
12. New York: D+15.8%
13. New Jersey: D+13.8%
14. Minnesota: D+13.3%
15. New Hampshire: D+11.5%
16. Delaware: D+11.3%
17. Colorado: D+10.8%
18. Wisconsin: D+10.3%
19. Michigan: D+9.4%
20. New Mexico: D+8.7%
21. Maine: D+7.2%
22. Iowa: D+6.6%
23. Pennsylvania: D+3.9%

24. Nevada: D+3.3% (current tipping point)

25. Virginia: D+2.8%
26. Ohio: D+1.3%


27. Arizona: R+0.6%
28. North Carolina: R+2.2%
29. Florida: R+3.8%
30. Utah: R+3.8%
31. Georgia: R+4.2%
32. Missouri: R+6.0%
33. Indiana: R+6.2%
34. Nebraska: R+6.9%
35. Kansas: R+7.5%
36. Texas: R+7.5%
37. Montana: R+7.6%
38. North Dakota: R+8.1%
39. South Carolina: R+11.5%
40. Alaska: R+11.6%
41. South Dakota: R+12.5%
42. Arkansas: R+14.0%
43. Idaho: R+15.3%
44. Kentucky: R+15.5%
45. Oklahoma: R+16.3%
46. Tennessee: R+16.3%
47. Mississippi: R+18.6%
48. Louisiana: R+20.0%
49. West Virginia: R+23.9%
50. Alabama: R+25.2%
51. Wyoming: R+30.2%

Wisconsin's tipping point margin in 2016 was R+0.8%, which means that with Nevada's current tipping point margin of D+3.3%, the 2020 election is so far shaping up to be D+4.1% more Democratic than the 2016 edition. Now, what we'll have to do is to compare each state's current partisan margins to their final 2016 results. That gives us this list below.


All states' current trends compared to 2016 results


North Dakota: D+27.6%
Oklahoma: D+20.1%
West Virginia: D+18.2%
Nebraska: D+18.1%
South Dakota: D+17.3%
Idaho: D+16.5%
Iowa: D+16.0%
Wyoming: D+15.6%
Utah: D+14.3%
Kentucky: D+14.3%
Kansas: D+13.1%
Arkansas: D+12.9%
Montana: D+12.8%
Indiana: D+12.7%
Missouri: D+12.6%
Minnesota: D+11.8%
New Hampshire: D+11.1%
Wisconsin: D+11.1%
Michigan: D+9.7%
Tennessee: D+9.7%
Ohio: D+9.4%
Oregon: D+5.9%
Colorado: D+5.9%
Pennsylvania: D+4.6%
Maine: D+4.2%
Washington: D+3.8%
South Carolina: D+3.8%

Predicted national trend: D+3.3%

Rhode Island: D+3.1%
Alaska: D+3.1%
Connecticut: D+3.0%
Arizona: D+2.9%
Alabama: D+2.5%
North Carolina: D+1.5%
Texas: D+1.5%
Nevada: D+0.9%
Georgia: D+0.9%
New Mexico: D+0.5%


Delaware: R+0.1%
New Jersey: R+0.2%
Vermont: R+0.3%
Louisiana: R+0.4%
Illinois: R+0.5%
Mississippi: R+0.8%
Massachusetts: R+1.3%
Virginia: R+2.5%
Florida: R+2.6%
Maryland: R+3.6%
Hawaii: R+5.4%
New York: R+6.7%
California: R+9.7%
Washington D.C: R+31.1%


That means that as of now, an impressive 37 states are already looking to be trending Democratic in the 2020 election, with another 6 or 7 states likely to flip to Democratic-trending in the next few months unless Trump's approval rating improves dramatically in no time. Now, what does this mean for the likely individual state trends relative to the nation come 2020? Let's see.


Current 2020 state TREND map

Explaining the shades:

90% shade: More than 14% off the national trend
80% shade: 12-14% of national trend
70% shade: 10-12% of national trend
60% shade: 8-10% of national trend
50% shade: 6-8% of national trend
40% shade: 4-6% of national trend
30% shade: 2-4% of national trend
Toss up: Within 2% of national trend


Some quick notes on the map. Most of the country, especially the "heartland", the agricultural great plains and most of the rust belt (the big exception being Pennsylvania), as well as the "white" Appalachian South and the "Mormon triangle", seem to be trending Democratic. Countering this trend however, is the deep south, which is either staying the same or trending Republican, as well as four of the five big, populous states (Texas being the one exception). The greater D.C. area - D.C. itself strongly so, Virginia and Maryland - seems also to be trending Republican. I think the US has 26 coastal states. Of those, only Oregon and New Hampshire seem to be trending Democratic. Most of the 2016 battleground states seem to be trending Democratic (or staying neutral). The biggest exceptions being Florida and Georgia (and Virginia if you count that one). Interesting to me is that neither of the three states with the biggest natural disasters during the Trump presidency - California (wildfires), Florida and Texas (hurricane destructions) - seem to be trending Democratic despite his blatant incompetency in the face of such disasters (which is obviously way worse even than Bush's complete incompetency reacting to Katrina, in my opinion).

[eric82oslo]

In what world is Trump only losing Virginia by 2.8% while only winning Utah by 3.8% and Oklahoma by 16.3%(!)?

My only answer to that is that Trump will for sure lose Virginia by more than 2.8%.

You do have a point though, as most states will become more partisan from this point on. However, that is not a good look when you see Minnesota is already +13 Democrat and probably only getting more Democratic.

[eric82oslo]

I have two great pieces of news in this 27th month of this installment. One, I'll just cut to it short and reveal the map which is really what all of you are waiting for anyhow.

Secondly, yet more importantly though, there's a quite fundamental way in which that map has changed substantially since last month. I'll cut through all the bullsh**t and just reveal it: Florida has gone from being likely Republican to only lean so.

EV count:

Dem: 285
Rep: 224
Toss up: 29


Here's the entire list:

1. D.C.: -1502















2. Hawaii: -725
3. Vermont: -711
4. Massachusetts: -703

5. Maryland: -621

6. California: -585

7. Washington: -534
8. Rhode Island: -504

9. Oregon: -457
10. Connecticut: -455
11. Illinois: -452

12. New York: -433

13. New Jersey: -374
14. Minnesota: -360

15. New Hampshire: -311
16. Delaware: -308

17. Colorado: -295
18. Wisconsin: -281
19. Michigan: -257

20. New Mexico: -238

21. Maine: -198
22. Iowa: -181

23. Pennsylvania: -109

24. Nevada: -95 (tipping point!)
25. Virginia: -78

26. Ohio: -39


27. Arizona: +10

28. North Carolina: +58
29. Florida: +98

30. Utah: +101
31. Georgia: +114

32. Missouri: +162
33. Indiana: +163
34. Nebraska: +184

35. Texas: +200
36. Montana: +202
37. Kansas: +203
38. North Dakota: +217


39. Alaska: +302
40. South Carolina: +310
41. South Dakota: +337

42. Arkansas: +371

43. Idaho: +411
44. Kentucky: +419
45. Oklahoma: +435
46. Tennessee: +441


47. Mississippi: +505
48. Louisiana: +538


49. West Virginia: +646

50. Alabama: +681



51. Wyoming: +811

[eric82oslo]

New month, new numbers. Not terribly much changed from last month though. With April 2019, we've reached 28 months of Morning Consult state polling. The biggest headlines making news this month is Nevada moving from lean to likely Democratic (30% to 40% confidence), while Florida remains in the lean Republican column, a positive sign for the 23 Democratic candidates running. There's also this: No less than 6 states hit their highest Trump disapproval/lowest approval ever recoded; Vermont, Maryland, New York, New Hampshire, battleground Arizona and red Alaska. If current trends continue, Ohio could go from toss up to lean Democratic in two or three more months.

No change in the EV count:

Dem: 285
Rep: 224
Toss up: 29





Here's the entire list:

1. D.C.: -1562















2. Hawaii: -759

3. Vermont: -748
4. Massachusetts: -731

5. Maryland: -651

6. California: -614

7. Washington: -561

8. Rhode Island: -526

9. Oregon: -479
10. Connecticut: -478
11. Illinois: -474
12. New York: -457

13. New Jersey: -391
14. Minnesota: -373

15. New Hampshire: -330
16. Delaware: -323
17. Colorado: -308

18. Wisconsin: -294
19. Michigan: -267
20. New Mexico: -250

21. Maine: -213

22. Iowa: -189

23. Pennsylvania: -116
24. Nevada: -102 (tipping point!)

25. Virginia: -84

26. Ohio: -43


27. Arizona: +3

28. North Carolina: +56
29. Florida: +96

30. Utah: +106
31. Georgia: +117

32. Indiana: +166
33. Missouri: +166
34. Nebraska: +188

35. Texas: +203
36. Kansas: +205
37. Montana: +205
38. North Dakota: +223


39. Alaska: +303
40. South Carolina: +320
41. South Dakota: +347

42. Arkansas: +380

43. Idaho: +428
44. Kentucky: +435
45. Oklahoma: +446

46. Tennessee: +459

47. Mississippi: +524

48. Louisiana: +558


49. West Virginia: +666

50. Alabama: +708


51. Wyoming: +839



The top 12 battleground states (potential tipping point states) as the status quo stands right now: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Maine, New Mexico, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.

I dare predict at this point, with 99.5 certainty, that one of these 12 states will be the tipping point state in the 2020 election, no matter which candidate Democrats end up with in the end.