One potential way of predicting swings could be to compare the final results of the 2016 election with current polling in each of those states on Trump's job approval. Using the net approval however can be tricky due to most states usually voting in a more partisan way than what polls in advance are predicting. Thus I thought I would compare each state instead by looking at how the ranking of states from most Democratic to most Republican has changed over the past 2 years and 7 months.
So here is the Morning Consult ranking of states based on Trump's approval during his first 31 months in office, with the changes from the 2016 presidential election in parenthesis:
1. Washington D.C. (no change)
2. Vermont (+4)
3. Hawaii (-1)
4. Massachusetts (no change)
5. Maryland (no change)
6. California (-3)
7. Washington (+2)
8. Rhode Island (+2)
9. Connecticut (+3)
10. Oregon (+4)
11. Illinois (-3)
12. New York (-5)
13. New Jersey (-2)
14. Minnesota (+6)
15. New Hampshire (+6)
16. Delaware (-3)
17. Colorado (no change)
18. Wisconsin (+6)
19. Michigan (+3)
20. New Mexico (-5)
21. Maine (-3)
22. Iowa (+9)
23. Pennsylvania (no change)
24. Nevada (-5)
25. Virginia (-9)
26. Ohio (+3)
27. Arizona (-1)
28. North Carolina (-1)
29. Florida (-4)
30. Utah (+5)
31. Georgia (-3)
32. Indiana (+5)
33. Missouri (+3)
34. Nebraska (+7)
35. Kansas (+5)
36. Texas (-6)
37. Montana (+2)
38. North Dakota (+10)
39. Alaska (-6)
40. South Carolina (-8)
41. South Dakota (+4)
42. Arkansas (+1)
43. Kentucky (+5)
44. Idaho (+3)
45. Oklahoma (+4)
46. Tennessee (-4)
47. Mississippi (-13)
48. Louisiana (-10)
49. West Virginia (+1)
50. Alabama (-6)
51. Wyoming (no change)
As we see, the biggest ranking changes have occurred in Mississippi (by far), Louisiana and North Dakota.
These ranking changes thus give us this trend map 2020:
It looks like most of the north - with a few exceptions - is rapidly trending Democratic, while almost the entire south - from Hawaii and California in the west, to Florida and Virginia in the east - is trending Republican. The northeast and larger D.C. area are perhaps the two regions with the least changes overall, with trends going all over the place. The region which is most firmly trending Democratic, is the agricultural Great Plains states around Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and Minnesota, while the region most clearly trending Republican are the Deep South states with tons of African American, which could explain the stubborn blueness of supposed purple states like Texas, Florida and Georgia too.
For color explanations:
Green: No change
30% shade: 1 place up/down on ranking
40%: 2 places
50%: 3 places
60%: 4 places
70%: 5 places
80%: 6 places
90%: 7 places or more
If these swings materialize on election day, then the Great Lakes region will have a Democratic PVI in 2020
