OH-Quinnipiac: Brown +17

[heatcharger]

Link.

Brown 51%
Renacci 34%

Good to see confirmed by the gold standard of polling.

[Xing]

At least Likely D. Honestly, I'd be surprised if Republicans invested much in this race.

[fridgeking]

Safe D.

[Gass3268]

Brown is going to drag Cordray to victory.

[ON Progressive]

I'm very, very tempted to move this to Safe D.

[swf541]

Cant believe it but this is almost safe d

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Likely D. Moving closer to Safe.

[KingSweden]

Brown is going to drag Cordray to victory.

This is quite possible.

[JG]

Badly needed good news, given the polls coming out of FL, MO and IN, and GOP primary turnout in ND this week.

What MO and IN polls?

[ON Progressive]

Badly needed good news, given the polls coming out of FL, MO and IN, and GOP primary turnout in ND this week.

What MO and IN polls?

I don't know what Beet's talking about with regards to those two. There hasn't been a serious MO poll in over a month, and that was McCaskill +4.

We literally have one poll out of Indiana, and it's a Gravis poll conducted a month ago with Braun up...1 point. Granted, part of the reason for lack of polling is because of Indiana's awful laws on this.

As for ND primary turnout Beet mentioned, that is totally meaningless. R turnout annihilated D turnout solely because there were actual (if only barely) contested R primaries, while every single statewide primary for Ds was uncontested.

[Skye]

This is a bit hard to believe.

It's still Likely D, though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Crosstabs-

Brown winning whites 47-38%

Brown gets a 55-29% approval rating, 59-22% amongst 18-34 year olds, and 58-25% amongst 65+

18-34 year-olds give Trump a 62% disapproval rating

[President Johnson]

Lean Democratic -> Likely Democratic. And even getting closer to safe Democratic.

If things go really well for Brown, he may win by the same margin and vote share than Tim Kaine.

[IceSpear]

Brown was also crushing Mandel by similar margins early on in 2012. Not to say the poll is necessarily inaccurate at the moment, but that the vast majority of the "undecideds" will end up voting Renacci. Of course when the gap inevitably narrows we will hear the concern trolls squeal "OMG HE'S ONLY UP 8, HE WAS UP 17 EARLIER, AT THIS RATE HE'LL LOSE BY 30 BY NOVEMBER!11!!"

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Brown is up, but not by this much, today I say he wins by 8 points.

[UncleSam]

Brown was also crushing Mandel by similar margins early on in 2012. Not to say the poll is necessarily inaccurate at the moment, but that the vast majority of the "undecideds" will end up voting Renacci. Of course when the gap inevitably narrows we will hear the concern trolls squeal "OMG HE'S ONLY UP 8, HE WAS UP 17 EARLIER, AT THIS RATE HE'LL LOSE BY 30 BY NOVEMBER!11!!"

This.

Brown isn’t going to win a total blowout in November, but all the signs point towards a comfortable win.

[KingSweden]

Lean Democratic -> Likely Democratic. And even getting closer to safe Democratic.

If things go really well for Brown, he may win by the same margin and vote share than Tim Kaine.

Eh. Renacci is nowhere near as bad as Stewart, in a much more GOP state

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, agree with MT Treasurer and IceSpear; Brown will easily win, but not by 15+. But he doesn’t need to—a decent sized single digits win would probably get most of the statewide downballot candidates across the finish line. Kathleen Clyde winning the SOS race would give Dems a huge shot in the arm for a future statewide race, since most of the rest of the ODP bench is relatively old.

Man, I really want Space.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Wow, Likely D.

Could feasibly make an argument even for Safe D.

[Maxwell]

Crosstabs-

Brown winning whites 47-38%

Brown gets a 55-29% approval rating, 59-22% amongst 18-34 year olds, and 58-25% amongst 65+

18-34 year-olds give Trump a 62% disapproval rating

wow yeah this is over Brown is gonna squash Renacci.

[Republican Left]

How much does he need to win in order to become Presidential material? Could he becoming a prominent player in 2020?

[NewYorkExpress]

How much does he need to win in order to become Presidential material? Could he becoming a prominent player in 2020?

He just needs to win, and hope Cordray wins as well.

The first is doable (some would even say likely), the second is plausible (some would say doable), but a tossup at best for Democrats, at this moment.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Likely Brown ====> Safe Brown