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December 14, 2019, 04:16:46 pm
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  TX-GQR Research: Cruz +6
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Author Topic: TX-GQR Research: Cruz +6  (Read 2901 times)
mds32
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« Reply #50 on: June 17, 2018, 08:41:35 pm »

Cruz is going to win by 9-12 points.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #51 on: June 17, 2018, 09:49:48 pm »

Currently here's what I think will happen:

1% chance of a Cruz 20+ point win
2% chance of a Cruz 15-19 point win
15% chance of a Cruz 10-14 point win
55% chance of a Cruz 5-9 point win
26% chance of a Cruz 0-4 point win
0.7% chance of a Beto 0-4 point win
0.2% chance of a Beto 5-9 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 10-14 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 15+ point win


FTFY
You do realize Cruz is only leading by 6, whereas Sherrod Brown, who you think is very vulnerable, is leading by 18?

'very vulnerable' is an exaggeration. I have Sherrod favored to win. Furthermore, I simply don't believe there are enough votes to elect a Democrat in Texas regardless of the environment.

This is basically my viewpoint. While I think O'Rourke will do better than any Democrat has done in a statewide election in Texas in many years, Cruz is still going to win, and probably by a margin of ~5-9 points, as this poll indicates. I consider Ohio to be Likely Democratic, probably close to Safe Democratic at this point.
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The Saint
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« Reply #52 on: June 18, 2018, 03:30:32 pm »

Wait a second, this is an internal? Now I'm more skeptical of it.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #53 on: June 18, 2018, 08:23:18 pm »
« Edited: June 18, 2018, 08:48:19 pm by Tartarus Sauce »

Currently here's what I think will happen:

1% chance of a Cruz 20+ point win
2% chance of a Cruz 15-19 point win
15% chance of a Cruz 10-14 point win
55% chance of a Cruz 5-9 point win
26% chance of a Cruz 0-4 point win
0.7% chance of a Beto 0-4 point win
0.2% chance of a Beto 5-9 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 10-14 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 15+ point win


FTFY
You do realize Cruz is only leading by 6, whereas Sherrod Brown, who you think is very vulnerable, is leading by 18?

'very vulnerable' is an exaggeration. I have Sherrod favored to win. Furthermore, I simply don't believe there are enough votes to elect a Democrat in Texas regardless of the environment.


If Alabama can send a Democrat to the Senate, then so can Texas. Don't be dense.
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UWS
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« Reply #54 on: June 18, 2018, 08:44:42 pm »

Currently here's what I think will happen:

1% chance of a Cruz 20+ point win
2% chance of a Cruz 15-19 point win
15% chance of a Cruz 10-14 point win
55% chance of a Cruz 5-9 point win
26% chance of a Cruz 0-4 point win
0.7% chance of a Beto 0-4 point win
0.2% chance of a Beto 5-9 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 10-14 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 15+ point win


FTFY
You do realize Cruz is only leading by 6, whereas Sherrod Brown, who you think is very vulnerable, is leading by 18?

'very vulnerable' is an exaggeration. I have Sherrod favored to win. Furthermore, I simply don't believe there are enough votes to elect a Democrat in Texas regardless of the environment.


If Alabama can send a Democrat to the Senate, then so can Texas. Don't be dense.


If Brown is leading so largely in Ohio and if Cruz is not polling so well in Texas, then that gives a good reason for the Democrats to focus more of their efforts on Texas than Ohio, which could give them hope in Texas.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #55 on: June 18, 2018, 09:27:12 pm »

Currently here's what I think will happen:

1% chance of a Cruz 20+ point win
2% chance of a Cruz 15-19 point win
15% chance of a Cruz 10-14 point win
55% chance of a Cruz 5-9 point win
26% chance of a Cruz 0-4 point win
0.7% chance of a Beto 0-4 point win
0.2% chance of a Beto 5-9 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 10-14 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 15+ point win


FTFY
You do realize Cruz is only leading by 6, whereas Sherrod Brown, who you think is very vulnerable, is leading by 18?

'very vulnerable' is an exaggeration. I have Sherrod favored to win. Furthermore, I simply don't believe there are enough votes to elect a Democrat in Texas regardless of the environment.


If Alabama can send a Democrat to the Senate, then so can Texas. Don't be dense.


I agree with you here. Texas could elect O'Rourke, but things would have to go really well for the Democrats for this to happen. And keep in mind that the only reason why Jones won in Alabama was because of Roy Moore's pedophilia. If Jones had faced a Generic Republican (i.e. Mo Brooks or Luther Strange), he would not have won the election. Something similar would have to happen to Ted Cruz for O'Rourke to win.
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