CA-Gov. Megathread: Newsom versus Cox
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  CA-Gov. Megathread: Newsom versus Cox
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Author Topic: CA-Gov. Megathread: Newsom versus Cox  (Read 3326 times)
Calthrina950
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« Reply #25 on: November 12, 2018, 04:13:18 PM »

With the latest vote dump, Newsom has cracked 60% of the vote share on CNN. He's also close to 5 million votes now. According to CNN, 72% are in, but that number hasn't changed since Friday or so.

That's good to hear. Prior to this, David Ige in Hawaii was the only Democratic Governor to breach 60%. Three Republicans did so last Tuesday-Charlie Baker, Asa Hutchinson, and Mark Gordon. Newsom cracking 60% makes the map more aesthetically pleasing.

Too bad Andrew Cuomo "only" got 59% in New York, although he broke Nelson Rockefeller's record from 1970 for the most votes cast (3.3 million) in any New York gubernatorial election. Tom Wolf also made it close to 58% in his election.

Gavin Newsom should also break the record for the most votes ever cast in the gubernatorial election California. And therefore the most votes ever cast in any gubernatorial election in America.

That's interesting. I've noted elsewhere how Hirono in Hawaii was the only Senatorial victor from either party to clear 70%; she ran ahead of Ige by ~8 percentage points. Barrasso, Cardin, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Romney, Sanders, Whitehouse, and Warren were the only other Senators to break 60%. Barrasso ran slightly behind Gordon in Wyoming (by about 0.14% or so). Cardin of course, ran ahead of Hogan by 8%, Gillibrand outperformed Cuomo by ~7%, Klobuchar ran ahead of Walz by ~6%, Sanders ran ahead of Scott by 12%, and Whitehouse ran ahead of Raimondo by 9%. There was no gubernatorial race in Utah this year, and Warren of course ran behind Charlie Baker by 7%. It is always interesting to compare how Senators and Governors do when they are on the same ticket. Texas, in particular, was something: Greg Abbott ran ahead of Ted Cruz by 5%, and won by 14 percentage points, while Cruz won by only 3.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #26 on: November 12, 2018, 04:23:50 PM »

With the latest vote dump, Newsom has cracked 60% of the vote share on CNN. He's also close to 5 million votes now. According to CNN, 72% are in, but that number hasn't changed since Friday or so.

That's good to hear. Prior to this, David Ige in Hawaii was the only Democratic Governor to breach 60%. Three Republicans did so last Tuesday-Charlie Baker, Asa Hutchinson, and Mark Gordon. Newsom cracking 60% makes the map more aesthetically pleasing.

Too bad Andrew Cuomo "only" got 59% in New York, although he broke Nelson Rockefeller's record from 1970 for the most votes cast (3.3 million) in any New York gubernatorial election. Tom Wolf also made it close to 58% in his election.

Gavin Newsom should also break the record for the most votes ever cast in the gubernatorial election California. And therefore the most votes ever cast in any gubernatorial election in America.

That's interesting. I've noted elsewhere how Hirono in Hawaii was the only Senatorial victor from either party to clear 70%; she ran ahead of Ige by ~8 percentage points. Barrasso, Cardin, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Romney, Sanders, Whitehouse, and Warren were the only other Senators to break 60%. Barrasso ran slightly behind Gordon in Wyoming (by about 0.14% or so). Cardin of course, ran ahead of Hogan by 8%, Gillibrand outperformed Cuomo by ~7%, Klobuchar ran ahead of Walz by ~6%, Sanders ran ahead of Scott by 12%, and Whitehouse ran ahead of Raimondo by 9%. There was no gubernatorial race in Utah this year, and Warren of course ran behind Charlie Baker by 7%. It is always interesting to compare how Senators and Governors do when they are on the same ticket. Texas, in particular, was something: Greg Abbott ran ahead of Ted Cruz by 5%, and won by 14 percentage points, while Cruz won by only 3.
Feinstein would’ve had a good shot at breaking 60% against a Republican.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #27 on: November 12, 2018, 04:42:39 PM »

With the latest vote dump, Newsom has cracked 60% of the vote share on CNN. He's also close to 5 million votes now. According to CNN, 72% are in, but that number hasn't changed since Friday or so.

That's good to hear. Prior to this, David Ige in Hawaii was the only Democratic Governor to breach 60%. Three Republicans did so last Tuesday-Charlie Baker, Asa Hutchinson, and Mark Gordon. Newsom cracking 60% makes the map more aesthetically pleasing.

Too bad Andrew Cuomo "only" got 59% in New York, although he broke Nelson Rockefeller's record from 1970 for the most votes cast (3.3 million) in any New York gubernatorial election. Tom Wolf also made it close to 58% in his election.

Gavin Newsom should also break the record for the most votes ever cast in the gubernatorial election California. And therefore the most votes ever cast in any gubernatorial election in America.

That's interesting. I've noted elsewhere how Hirono in Hawaii was the only Senatorial victor from either party to clear 70%; she ran ahead of Ige by ~8 percentage points. Barrasso, Cardin, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Romney, Sanders, Whitehouse, and Warren were the only other Senators to break 60%. Barrasso ran slightly behind Gordon in Wyoming (by about 0.14% or so). Cardin of course, ran ahead of Hogan by 8%, Gillibrand outperformed Cuomo by ~7%, Klobuchar ran ahead of Walz by ~6%, Sanders ran ahead of Scott by 12%, and Whitehouse ran ahead of Raimondo by 9%. There was no gubernatorial race in Utah this year, and Warren of course ran behind Charlie Baker by 7%. It is always interesting to compare how Senators and Governors do when they are on the same ticket. Texas, in particular, was something: Greg Abbott ran ahead of Ted Cruz by 5%, and won by 14 percentage points, while Cruz won by only 3.
Feinstein would’ve had a good shot at breaking 60% against a Republican.

She almost certainly would have broken 60%, as Democrats would have put aside their scruples with her, and united behind her, just like they did for Newsom in the gubernatorial race. Still, it's interesting to see how much she underperformed Kamala Harris, and it's surprising that De Leon did so much better than Loretta Sanchez (who is much more moderate than he is).
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2018, 08:32:09 PM »

This marks the first time in US history where San Franciscans rejected Cox.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2018, 08:32:52 PM »

This marks the first time in US history where San Franciscans rejected Cox.

Lame.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: November 12, 2018, 10:17:33 PM »

This marks the first time in US history where San Franciscans rejected Cox.

lmao
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #31 on: November 14, 2018, 02:44:34 AM »

Intersting fact: This is only the second time in CA history, or the fist time since the 1850s, that Dems won three consecutive gubernatorial elections. After Newsom is sworn in, it will also mark the longest uninterrupted time span the governorship is held by Dems.
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Canis
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« Reply #32 on: November 14, 2018, 04:21:58 AM »

in Orange county there's still 302,895 votes left to be counted and in san bernardino there's still 173,300 ballots left to be counted but as of now their loyalty to the republicans in governor elections remains unbroken
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #33 on: December 07, 2018, 03:30:24 PM »

CA Secretary of State shows no more ballots to count. Here's some tentative maps!


2018 county map




2018-2014 swing




Closest counties
1. Orange                     D+0.2
2. Riverside                  R+0.4
3. Lake                          D+1
4. Stanislaus                 R+1.6
5. Fresno                       R+1.8


Biggest R swings
1.  Lake                            R+21.6
2.  Lassen                        R+19.4
3.  Shasta                        R+18.4
4.  Amador                       R+18.2
5.  Del Norte & Sierra      R+16.6


Biggest D swings
1.  San Diego                   D+11.6
2.  Orange                        D+11.4
3.  Los Angeles                D+10.2
4.  San Bernardino           D+9.2
5.  Tulare                          D+8.8
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AudmanOut
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« Reply #34 on: December 07, 2018, 03:36:55 PM »

Rural areas trended R and Suburan areas trended ? So surprising!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: December 07, 2018, 03:49:01 PM »

Interesting that Mr. San Francisco did better in Southern California than the Bay Area.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #36 on: December 07, 2018, 03:50:20 PM »

Interesting that Mr. San Francisco did better in Southern California than the Bay Area.

Haven't Democrats maxed out there?
BTW, why is Lake county the only Dem county that trended R?
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AudmanOut
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« Reply #37 on: December 07, 2018, 04:16:48 PM »

Interesting that Mr. San Francisco did better in Southern California than the Bay Area.

Haven't Democrats maxed out there?
BTW, why is Lake county the only Dem county that trended R?
It’s more WWC. It trended to trump by double digits in 2016.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #38 on: December 07, 2018, 04:20:51 PM »

Interesting that Mr. San Francisco did better in Southern California than the Bay Area.

Haven't Democrats maxed out there?
BTW, why is Lake county the only Dem county that trended R?
It’s more WWC. It trended to trump by double digits in 2016.

I saw in Wikipedia that this county was reliably Republican up until the '90s, then it swinged hard to the Democrats, and now it's trending Republican again.
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Timothy87
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« Reply #39 on: December 09, 2018, 01:24:09 PM »
« Edited: December 09, 2018, 01:28:20 PM by Timothy87 »

CA Secretary of State shows no more ballots to count. Here's some tentative maps!


2018 county map




2018-2014 swing




Closest counties
1. Orange                     D+0.2
2. Riverside                  R+0.4
3. Lake                          D+1
4. Stanislaus                 R+1.6
5. Fresno                       R+1.8


Biggest R swings
1.  Lake                            R+21.6
2.  Lassen                        R+19.4
3.  Shasta                        R+18.4
4.  Amador                       R+18.2
5.  Del Norte & Sierra      R+16.6


Biggest D swings
1.  San Diego                   D+11.6
2.  Orange                        D+11.4
3.  Los Angeles                D+10.2
4.  San Bernardino           D+9.2
5.  Tulare                          D+8.8

I believe you posted your data right before stupid little Lake county finally was the LAST to turn in their final numbers. The republican swing came down to 19.8%, but still quite large

And for what it's worth the Dem swing in San Mateo county was 0.002% haha

P.S. The swing in Sonoma and Ventura counties was 4.97% each, so slightly under the 5% benchmark Wink
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #40 on: December 10, 2018, 01:09:49 AM »
« Edited: December 10, 2018, 02:12:28 AM by Interlocutor »


I believe you posted your data right before stupid little Lake county finally was the LAST to turn in their final numbers. The republican swing came down to 19.8%, but still quite large

And for what it's worth the Dem swing in San Mateo county was 0.002% haha

P.S. The swing in Sonoma and Ventura counties was 4.97% each, so slightly under the 5% benchmark Wink


Then it's a good thing I labeled these as "tentative" Wink

At least I got San Mateo right.



2018-2014 swing (Because decimal points matter)




Closest counties
1. Orange                     D+0.2
2. Riverside                  R+0.4
3. Stanislaus                 R+1.6
4. Fresno                       R+1.8
5. Lake                          D+2.8


Biggest R swings
1.  Lake                            R+19.8
2.  Lassen                        R+19.4
3.  Shasta                        R+18.4
4.  Amador                       R+18.2
5.  Del Norte & Sierra      R+16.6


Biggest D swings
1.  San Diego                   D+11.6
2.  Orange                        D+11.4
3.  Los Angeles                D+10.2
4.  San Bernardino           D+9.2
5.  Tulare                          D+8.8
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #41 on: December 10, 2018, 02:33:00 PM »

Thanks for that map!

Irritated about the Riverside County on the Newsom vs. Cox map. Really destroys the SoCal aesthetic.
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Timothy87
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« Reply #42 on: December 10, 2018, 05:08:45 PM »

Thanks for that map!

Irritated about the Riverside County on the Newsom vs. Cox map. Really destroys the SoCal aesthetic.

Alt viewpoint. San Bernardino is the one that destroys the aesthetic! (Not to mention Merced)
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #43 on: December 10, 2018, 08:29:19 PM »

Thanks for that map!

Irritated about the Riverside County on the Newsom vs. Cox map. Really destroys the SoCal aesthetic.

Alt viewpoint. San Bernardino is the one that destroys the aesthetic! (Not to mention Merced)

Haha

Maybe one day Kern will go Democratic so we can take advantage of that clean line of the northern border of SLO, Kern, and SB.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #44 on: December 10, 2018, 08:38:24 PM »

Santa Barbara County is once again close to the overall state margins in both the Gov and Sen Election.




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DrScholl
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« Reply #45 on: December 10, 2018, 08:46:05 PM »

Santa Barbara County mirrors the state with a liberal coast and conservative interior. The campaigns for the Isla Vista/Santa Ynez Valley supervisor seat are usually quite interesting because of the contrast in ideology.
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