CA-Gov. Megathread: Newsom versus Cox

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Newsom wins. End of thread.

I'm gonna say Cox gets 38%

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D/R combined primary map:



2018-2014 primary swing:

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Look at those SoCal swings O_o

Helps that turnout was so pitiful in 2014. Regardless, some of the swings down here are incredible


County                 '18 margin     '14 margin     18-14 swing

Los Angeles          45.96%          26.56%        +19.4%
Orange                    0.5%          18.44%        +18.9%
Riverside                2.99%          10.69%        +7.7%
San Diego             15.33%              1.8%       +17.1%
San Bernardino        1.68%          15.18%       +13.5%
Santa Barbara        21.22%            9.55%      +11.7%
Ventura                 13.29%            3.06%       +16.4%

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What's with Riverside? Even Betty Yee didn't carry it.

My home county, so I'm wondering that myself. Here's some excuses I could think of:



- Lack of exciting primaries (Except for AD-60, incumbents are pretty safe this year)

- Nonpartisan races dominated by incumbent/local republicans (Sheriff/Supervisor/DA races)

- Low turnout/votes in bluer districts. Yee won the 36th & 41st with 11000 votes each, but lost Calvert's 42nd district by 22000 votes

- General apathy (Linked with the first one)

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Combined ballot swing from the 2018 & 2010 primaries

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CA Secretary of State shows no more ballots to count. Here's some tentative maps!


2018 county map




2018-2014 swing




Closest counties
1. Orange                     D+0.2
2. Riverside                  R+0.4
3. Lake                          D+1
4. Stanislaus                 R+1.6
5. Fresno                       R+1.8


Biggest R swings
1.  Lake                            R+21.6
2.  Lassen                        R+19.4
3.  Shasta                        R+18.4
4.  Amador                       R+18.2
5.  Del Norte & Sierra      R+16.6


Biggest D swings
1.  San Diego                   D+11.6
2.  Orange                        D+11.4
3.  Los Angeles                D+10.2
4.  San Bernardino           D+9.2
5.  Tulare                          D+8.8

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I believe you posted your data right before stupid little Lake county finally was the LAST to turn in their final numbers. The republican swing came down to 19.8%, but still quite large

And for what it's worth the Dem swing in San Mateo county was 0.002% haha

P.S. The swing in Sonoma and Ventura counties was 4.97% each, so slightly under the 5% benchmark

Then it's a good thing I labeled these as "tentative"

At least I got San Mateo right.



2018-2014 swing (Because decimal points matter)




Closest counties
1. Orange                     D+0.2
2. Riverside                  R+0.4
3. Stanislaus                 R+1.6
4. Fresno                       R+1.8
5. Lake                          D+2.8


Biggest R swings
1.  Lake                            R+19.8
2.  Lassen                        R+19.4
3.  Shasta                        R+18.4
4.  Amador                       R+18.2
5.  Del Norte & Sierra      R+16.6


Biggest D swings
1.  San Diego                   D+11.6
2.  Orange                        D+11.4
3.  Los Angeles                D+10.2
4.  San Bernardino           D+9.2
5.  Tulare                          D+8.8