Germany: Dispute over immigration between CDU and CSU mounts

[President Johnson]

The dispute over immigration between the CDU and CSU mounts these days. The main issue is whether to reject certain asylum seekers at the German border. Large parts of the CDU and especially Merkel want to negotiate an agreement within the European Union, but the Bavarian CSU and Interior Minister (responsible for homeland security and not comparable to the US Interior Secretary) Horst Seehofer wants to reject asylum seekers who were already admitted to another EU country or rejected in Germany before.

The parlamentary groups of both parties today held separate crisis meetings, which is very uncommon because they form a joint caucus together. Seehofer now treatens to order the federal police to reject asylum seekers. That may happen on Monday if the CSU chairboard agrees to the plan (very likely to happen). Merkel asked for two weeks to negotiate with EU partners, but Seehofer and his allies refuse to wait that long. If he issues such an order next week, Merkel de facto has to fire him what would mean the coalition is done. If the CSU leaves, CDU+SPD fall short of a majority (two seats are missing).


Additional information: The Guardian: Merkel coalition at risk as talks on refugee policy falter


Although I'm a member of the SPD, I largely agree with Seehofer because it is just common sense.

[Tender Branson]

Merkel should just resign now.

She's so worn out by now and doesn't even have her government under control anymore.

Add this to the fact of increasing corruption, incompetence and security-related scandals such as the BAMF one or the frequent killings and rapes by immigrants that she allowed in.

Her time is up. She's just limping along for the next 4 years because she's power-hungry and glued to her seat ... and it's painful to watch.

[President Johnson]

Merkel should just resign now.

She's so worn out by now and doesn't even have her government under control anymore.

Add this to the fact of increasing corruption, incompetence and security-related scandals such as the BAMF one or the frequent killings and rapes by immigrants that she allowed in.

Her time is up. She's just limping along for the next 4 years because she's power-hungry and glued to her seat ... and it's painful to watch.

I agree, but who replaces her out of the CDU/CSU ranks? AKK? Hell, she's so boring and essentially the same type as Merkel. Spahn is an empty suit with not much of a record except for making speeches. And Uschi has shown that's incomptent. A guy I respect is Armin Laschet, but he's not much of an option since he just got in as minister-president. Seehofer himself at least would be an interesting but temporary solution until the next election in 2021. I'd also be ok with Peter Altmaier though.

[NewYorkExpress]

Merkel should just resign now.

She's so worn out by now and doesn't even have her government under control anymore.

Add this to the fact of increasing corruption, incompetence and security-related scandals such as the BAMF one or the frequent killings and rapes by immigrants that she allowed in.

Her time is up. She's just limping along for the next 4 years because she's power-hungry and glued to her seat ... and it's painful to watch.

The odds are that Merkel, or whoever replaces her, isn't going to win the most seats in the next election anyways.

I'd bet on AfD picking up a narrow plurality of seats, and ultimately being able to form a minority government.

[Famous Mortimer]

Automatically rejected failed asylum seekers and people who are already legal residents of other EU countries? That's such a completely obvious, logical position, it's insane that it even has to be debated.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Merkel should just resign now.

She's so worn out by now and doesn't even have her government under control anymore.

Add this to the fact of increasing corruption, incompetence and security-related scandals such as the BAMF one or the frequent killings and rapes by immigrants that she allowed in.

Her time is up. She's just limping along for the next 4 years because she's power-hungry and glued to her seat ... and it's painful to watch.

The odds are that Merkel, or whoever replaces her, isn't going to win the most seats in the next election anyways.

I'd bet on AfD picking up a narrow plurality of seats, and ultimately being able to form a minority government.

I, err, doubt this. More likely that the CDU simply appropriate AfD's platform next election.

[mvd10]

Merkel should just resign now.

She's so worn out by now and doesn't even have her government under control anymore.

Add this to the fact of increasing corruption, incompetence and security-related scandals such as the BAMF one or the frequent killings and rapes by immigrants that she allowed in.

Her time is up. She's just limping along for the next 4 years because she's power-hungry and glued to her seat ... and it's painful to watch.

The odds are that Merkel, or whoever replaces her, isn't going to win the most seats in the next election anyways.

I'd bet on AfD picking up a narrow plurality of seats, and ultimately being able to form a minority government.

AfD will not win a plurality. Seriously, the odds of that happening are less than 1%. There might temporarily be chaos because at this stage Merkel is the CDU. But AKK will win most people who voted for Merkel. Spahn as Kanzlerkandidat might actually win back some AfD voters. AfD will never form a government, but because they shifted the overton window and made sure Merkel's immigration policies came under increased scrutiny they basically made Chancellor Spahn (the anti-Merkel even though he's in her cabinet) or something similar possible. It's the same here in the Netherlands. Apart from a failed period in 2010-2012 Wilders never was close to power, but the rightwards shift of the centre-right parties (VVD, CDA) on immigration would be unthinkable 10 years ago and it definitely wouldn't have happened without Wilders threatening to win right-wing voters. PVV/AfD very likely won't form a government. This isn't the US where the far-right basically hijacked the establishment conservative party and won the elections, this is a multiparty system where the centre-right can ignore the far-right if they wish.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think the AfD will come to power one day, but in the long manner the Greens did. They will purge and schism and fracture to form an establishment acceptable grouping, while simultaneously the major parties will wear more and more of AfDs clothing until they have no real objections to working with them.

Crucial thing is it will take time. The party is disliked and distrusted by the average German voter, even amongst people who dislike current refugee policy.

[Famous Mortimer]

Merkel should just resign now.

She's so worn out by now and doesn't even have her government under control anymore.

Add this to the fact of increasing corruption, incompetence and security-related scandals such as the BAMF one or the frequent killings and rapes by immigrants that she allowed in.

Her time is up. She's just limping along for the next 4 years because she's power-hungry and glued to her seat ... and it's painful to watch.

The odds are that Merkel, or whoever replaces her, isn't going to win the most seats in the next election anyways.

I'd bet on AfD picking up a narrow plurality of seats, and ultimately being able to form a minority government.

This is embarrassing. Do you know how minority governments work?

[dead0man]

Automatically rejected failed asylum seekers and people who are already legal residents of other EU countries? That's such a completely obvious, logical position, it's insane that it even has to be debated.

yeah, that's weird.  What are the arguments in defense of these positions?  I can't think of any that make any sense....especially the already rejected bit.  Who, other than people who WANT TO DO HARM TO THE STATE, would be for letting people in who have already been rejected once?

[Consciously Unconscious]

Merkel should just resign now.

She's so worn out by now and doesn't even have her government under control anymore.

Add this to the fact of increasing corruption, incompetence and security-related scandals such as the BAMF one or the frequent killings and rapes by immigrants that she allowed in.

Her time is up. She's just limping along for the next 4 years because she's power-hungry and glued to her seat ... and it's painful to watch.

The odds are that Merkel, or whoever replaces her, isn't going to win the most seats in the next election anyways.

I'd bet on AfD picking up a narrow plurality of seats, and ultimately being able to form a minority government.

Germany isn't the Weimar Republic anymore; this situation is very very unlikely. 

[ingemann]

Merkel should just resign now.

She's so worn out by now and doesn't even have her government under control anymore.

Add this to the fact of increasing corruption, incompetence and security-related scandals such as the BAMF one or the frequent killings and rapes by immigrants that she allowed in.

Her time is up. She's just limping along for the next 4 years because she's power-hungry and glued to her seat ... and it's painful to watch.

The odds are that Merkel, or whoever replaces her, isn't going to win the most seats in the next election anyways.

I'd bet on AfD picking up a narrow plurality of seats, and ultimately being able to form a minority government.

Not going to happen, the plurality are theorectical possible, but honestly it won't, they will in fact not even come near. As for a government AfD will be unable to collect a majority behind any such government, which will mean they won't be able to establish a minority government.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm assuming nothing will happen and Merkel will remain Chancellor but some concession to Seehofer.

That's boring though.

What's more likely, Seehofer launching a coup within the Union and becoming Chancellor.

Or a new election in which the CSU runs independently?

The first scenario would be nice because it would get Merkel out, the second would be nice because an independent CSU could serve as a more socially acceptable AfD.

[TheSaint250]

I'd bet on AfD picking up a narrow plurality of seats, and ultimately being able to form a minority government.

what

[President Johnson]

I'm assuming nothing will happen and Merkel will remain Chancellor but some concession to Seehofer.

That's boring though.

What's more likely, Seehofer launching a coup within the Union and becoming Chancellor.

Or a new election in which the CSU runs independently?

The first scenario would be nice because it would get Merkel out, the second would be nice because an independent CSU could serve as a more socially acceptable AfD.

The SPD is NOT electing Seehofer as chancellor, neither would large parts of the CDU. If he orders the federal police to reject asylum seekers against the chancellor's will this will happen: Merkel fires Seehofer (she has the power to do so), the CSU leaves the cabinet and the Greens join the coalition to avoid new elections, which would end in a total disaster for the governing parties.

[President Johnson]

LOL, the President of the United States now gets involved:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1008696508697513985

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1008696952559734787


But the respsonse of North-Rhine Westphania Minister-President Armin Laschet (CDU) is great:

https://twitter.com/ArminLaschet/status/1008699277479174144


"So sad. Now the US President explains us the 63 point masterplan that wasn't even submitted yet"

[JonHawk]

Trump sounds like he'd be a better chancellor than Merkel by the sounds of it

[swl]

Apparently the consequence of all of this (pressure on Merkel, new Italian government) is that the EU will finally open refugee centers abroad where asylum seekers have to apply. Not sure it will solve Seehofer's problems but he will be able to say that it happened thanks to him.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Bavarian and Austrian cabinets held a joint cabinet meeting to put additional pressure on Merkel.

Both PM Söder (Bavaria) and Chancellor Kurz (Austria) said that "not even a thin piece of paper fits between them" on the topic of illegal/uncontrolled immigration and asylum seekers.

A picture of the Austrian+Bavarian cabinet members:



BTW: Strache, Hofer and Kickl were in Rome today to meet Salvini and talk with him about the upcoming EU meeting on immgiration/asylum, also to put more pressure on Merkel.

[DavidB.]

Please don't post porn on Atlas, thanks.

[swl]

German-Austrian-Italian far rights getting together, may a the "axis" would be a good name for their gathering

[DavidB.]

German-Austrian-Italian far rights getting together, may a the "axis" would be a good name for their gathering

Maybe they could also wear armbands to indicate their friendship. With a symbol that means much to them. #justgirlythings

[Tender Branson]

German-Austrian-Italian far rights getting together, may a the "axis" would be a good name for their gathering

Maybe they could also wear armbands to indicate their friendship. With a symbol that means much to them. #justgirlythings

You might be on to something:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.eu/article/austrias-sebastian-kurz-wants-axis-of-willing-against-illegal-migration

[President Johnson]

German-Austrian-Italian far rights getting together, may a the "axis" would be a good name for their gathering

Maybe they could also wear armbands to indicate their friendship. With a symbol that means much to them. #justgirlythings

You might be on to something:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.eu/article/austrias-sebastian-kurz-wants-axis-of-willing-against-illegal-migration

Well, I'm not a fan of Mr. Kurz, but the idea itsself isn't bad. It's much better to spend a smaller amount of money for decent refugee camps outside the EU were they can live in their cultural environment, rather than bringing everyone in. And it's not just crime, it's also housing (not enough space, prices are through the roof etc.) and all the bureaucracy at every front (eduction, heathcare etc.).

[Hnv1]

CDU and CSU in a prisoner dilemma. Lovely