2008: Edwards/Richardson vs Romney/McCain

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Gore is finishing his second term (16 years of Democratic rule) and John Edwards is the nominee, with the Great Recession ramping up and a disaster in Afghanistan. Edwards's infidelity comes out two weeks before the election.

What's your map for this scenario?  Here's mine:

Romney/McCain 387
Edwards/Richardson 151

I think this might be the absolute GOP ceiling in the current political alignment.

[libertpaulian]

If Romney is winning all of those states, then he's definitely winning NJ and NM.  RI and IL are possibilities too.  If Romney is having a most excellent night, then he also snags VT, in addition to the aforementioned states.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Romney is winning all of those states, then he's definitely winning NJ and NM.  RI and IL are possibilities too.  If Romney is having a most excellent night, then he also snags VT, in addition to the aforementioned states.

I gave NM to Edwards due to Bill Richardson being on the ticket, but that might not matter. That would be the closest state IMO. VT and CA are tough to crack, but they would also be close. Really there's no state other than DC that Edwards wins with anything close to comfort.

UT should probably be Romney >80%. It would be a blue bloodbath.

EDIT: There's also the fact that no one would campaign in NM at all except perhaps Richardson. A popular governor and Hispanic in a very Hispanic state. I see him just kind of owning the place to himself and the Romney campaign not even bothering.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Best Case Scenario

Romney 423 - Edwards 115

[morgankingsley]

This type of case is the only way that a republican is winning either New York or California in these days. And it would be by a narrow hair. But even that is really debatable. The only republican I can see on a normal ticket winning New York is Trump, and that is due to home state appeal, and it would have to be a landslide. California I think is too far gone

[Lord Admirale]

This type of case is the only way that a republican is winning either New York or California in these days. And it would be by a narrow hair. But even that is really debatable. The only republican I can see on a normal ticket winning New York is Trump, and that is due to home state appeal, and it would have to be a landslide. California I think is too far gone

Trump was not a good fit for New York: he pissed off minorities and suburbanites (granted Long Island liked him for some reason, but only Suffolk).

[morgankingsley]

This type of case is the only way that a republican is winning either New York or California in these days. And it would be by a narrow hair. But even that is really debatable. The only republican I can see on a normal ticket winning New York is Trump, and that is due to home state appeal, and it would have to be a landslide. California I think is too far gone

Trump was not a good fit for New York: he pissed off minorities and suburbanites (granted Long Island liked him for some reason, but only Suffolk).

I did say it would only be in the event of a landslide it would go to him. Like a 10+ point landslide. So it's hard, but not impossible in theory, but since Trump will probably not do it, I doubt anybody else would.