TX-GQR Research: Cruz +6

[Calthrina950]

Doesn't really change my view of the race.

It's still Likely R.

Yup. Just like the majority of polls, this is a Cruz lead of mid-to-high single digits. Likely R.

I agree with this. Texas is Likely Republican under my ratings.

[Calthrina950]

Clearly Cruz is as likely to win as Stabenow and Menendez.

But the difference is that those two will almost certainly win by double digits, while Cruz will be held to a single-digit margin, probably 6-9 pts. as this poll indicates.

[Calthrina950]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

[Calthrina950]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He is much weaker than Abbott, and Beto is much stronger than Valdez. Also, Texas is usually bluer (comparatively) on the federal than state level. Plus he gaffes up so often, while Beto is comparatively fleek, and Valdez has tons of scandals, but Abbott is relatively fleek.

I see. That makes sense. Abbott seems like a reasonable Governor to me, but Cruz is an unlikable charlatan and a ideological extremist. If I were a Texas voter, I would be splitting my ticket.

[Calthrina950]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He is much weaker than Abbott, and Beto is much stronger than Valdez. Also, Texas is usually bluer (comparatively) on the federal than state level. Plus he gaffes up so often, while Beto is comparatively fleek, and Valdez has tons of scandals, but Abbott is relatively fleek.

I see. That makes sense. Abbott seems like a reasonable Governor to me, but Cruz is an unlikable charlatan and a ideological extremist. If I were a Texas voter, I would be splitting my ticket.

Also O'Rourke and Abbott are relatively local guys who are mostly all about Texas, while Cruz is part of the DC Swamp, and Valdez has held several dalliances with the federal party and was doing some things that really had little to do with her much needed role of saving our dilapidated law enforcement departments and weak morale and jail infrastructure (like working on federal immigration task forces with Obama) while only partially improving conditions here locally. I think she was a decent to good sheriff, but she had the potential to do more and be much better, but a lot of those times she was just hanging out with the national party. Just a general breakdown that you could classify O'Rourke and Abbott as the Texan guys, while Cruz and Valdez kind of cared about Texas, but really had higher less local ambitions all along, and substantially more swampier.

I see. Thank you for this analysis. Now it makes sense to me as to why these races are shaping up as they are. Even though Cruz will win in the end, I do hope that this year will begin laying the foundations for a political change in Texas in the near future, at least on the federal level.

[Calthrina950]

Currently here's what I think will happen:

1% chance of a Cruz 20+ point win
2% chance of a Cruz 15-19 point win
15% chance of a Cruz 10-14 point win
55% chance of a Cruz 5-9 point win
26% chance of a Cruz 0-4 point win
0.7% chance of a Beto 0-4 point win
0.2% chance of a Beto 5-9 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 10-14 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 15+ point win

FTFY

You do realize Cruz is only leading by 6, whereas Sherrod Brown, who you think is very vulnerable, is leading by 18?

'very vulnerable' is an exaggeration. I have Sherrod favored to win. Furthermore, I simply don't believe there are enough votes to elect a Democrat in Texas regardless of the environment.

This is basically my viewpoint. While I think O'Rourke will do better than any Democrat has done in a statewide election in Texas in many years, Cruz is still going to win, and probably by a margin of ~5-9 points, as this poll indicates. I consider Ohio to be Likely Democratic, probably close to Safe Democratic at this point.

[Calthrina950]

Currently here's what I think will happen:

1% chance of a Cruz 20+ point win
2% chance of a Cruz 15-19 point win
15% chance of a Cruz 10-14 point win
55% chance of a Cruz 5-9 point win
26% chance of a Cruz 0-4 point win
0.7% chance of a Beto 0-4 point win
0.2% chance of a Beto 5-9 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 10-14 point win
<0.1% chance of a Beto 15+ point win

FTFY

You do realize Cruz is only leading by 6, whereas Sherrod Brown, who you think is very vulnerable, is leading by 18?

'very vulnerable' is an exaggeration. I have Sherrod favored to win. Furthermore, I simply don't believe there are enough votes to elect a Democrat in Texas regardless of the environment.

If Alabama can send a Democrat to the Senate, then so can Texas. Don't be dense.

I agree with you here. Texas could elect O'Rourke, but things would have to go really well for the Democrats for this to happen. And keep in mind that the only reason why Jones won in Alabama was because of Roy Moore's pedophilia. If Jones had faced a Generic Republican (i.e. Mo Brooks or Luther Strange), he would not have won the election. Something similar would have to happen to Ted Cruz for O'Rourke to win.