Redistricting with 2020 Population Estimates (and 2016/2018 Political Data) (user search)
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  Redistricting with 2020 Population Estimates (and 2016/2018 Political Data) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Redistricting with 2020 Population Estimates (and 2016/2018 Political Data)  (Read 5618 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« on: June 17, 2018, 03:29:23 PM »
Nice work. Can you please do this for more states?
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2018, 06:14:01 PM »
I would like to see Iowa in particular, because there is a relatively high chance in Iowa compared to other states that someone could put together what ends up being the real map (or at least extremely close to the real map) using these estimates.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2018, 08:05:09 PM »
There is a misplaced precinct in that map in Dallas County, Iowa between Districts 3 and 4.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2018, 09:29:08 PM »
Does anyone have a chart of state by state predicted populations for 2020 for excel?
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2018, 06:33:56 PM »
Dallas County, Iowa has had some major population growth.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2018, 12:28:20 PM »
Quote from: muon2 on June 24, 2018, 11:46:31 AM
Quote from: Solid4096 on June 23, 2018, 06:33:56 PM
Dallas County, Iowa has had some major population growth.

Of course it has. Dallas county has been averaging 3.9% growth per year so far this decade. That's why I don't use the current estimate, I forecast a projection to 2020 based on that rate of growth. For example the 7/1/17 estimate is 87,235 but I use a 2020 population of 96,896.

The question here is whether the rate of population growth in Dallas county will be faster or slower over the next 3 years than it has been over the previous 7. Are you suggesting that the growth rate will be significantly higher in the last years of this decade than it currently is?

I was just noting how surprising it is that the County has grown so much. It has almost caught up to Story County in population based on these 2020 estimates, even as Story County has also been growing.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2018, 03:27:13 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2018, 03:35:09 PM by Solid4096 »
I think Texas would add more than 3 Democratic Packs, because they will probably target PVI values of R+10, and after the 2020 elections, 3 Packs will be insufficient to make everything else that high. I think most likely is that they will draw 4 or 5 Packs.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,750


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2018, 07:22:58 AM »
https://drive.google.com/file/d/147QKnQZqHFZAqKQoVyY88IBf4IPY8haR/view

I made my own Iowa population estimates.
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