Senate trend map

[Politician]

How much each race's margin changes from 2012.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You got the direction largely right, but if your colors are there to indicate the trend's strength, they are way exaggerated on either side. You're predicting big democratic landslides in AZ, WI and even TX while assuming Nelson is done for, which makes no sense.

Here's my attempt. I'm sure it will be way off in some places.

[UncleSam]

I kinda doubt Michigan trends left. Stabenaw won by 20 in 2012 and while winning by more than that isn’t out of the question for her, it does seem like a ceiling kind of number. Teens seems a lot more likely, and I would even argue single digits is more likely than 20+, though not by a ton.

[Politician]

I kinda doubt Michigan trends left. Stabenaw won by 20 in 2012 and while winning by more than that isn’t out of the question for her, it does seem like a ceiling kind of number. Teens seems a lot more likely, and I would even argue single digits is more likely than 20+, though not by a ton.

You're right, and John James is a decent candidate as well. I might change that one, actually.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

30%: 0-5% trend
60%: 5-10% trend
90%: 10%+ trend

I'm counting De Leon as an independent.

Edit: Oof yea I meant swing haha.

[Xing]

I assume we mean swing, not trend.

>30% = 2% swing or less
>40% = 2-5% swing
>60% = 5-10% swing
>90% = 10% swing or more

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why can't people actually use the swing/trend color scheme actually used by Dave?

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Why can't people actually use the swing/trend color scheme actually used by Dave?

You can't tell me what to do mom.

[IceSpear]

Why can't people actually use the swing/trend color scheme actually used by Dave?

Here you go. This is swing, not trend. I couldn't get >20% by using the electoral college map, so >30% represents a <5 point swing, and so on.

[IceSpear]

A lot of you guys are vastly underestimating Hawaii's swing. Hirono won by a relatively underwhelming margin (by the standards of a Hawaii Democrat) in 2012 because she was running against a popular former governor. She's going to romp by Inouye-esque margins this time.

Maryland is also unlikely to swing D, as Cardin's margin was inflated by an independent who drew disporportionately from the Republican.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A lot of you guys are vastly underestimating Hawaii's swing. Hirono won by a relatively underwhelming margin (by the standards of a Hawaii Democrat) in 2012 because she was running against a popular former governor. She's going to romp by Inouye-esque margins this time.

Good point. Updated to reflect that.

Also, do you really think Stewart will hold Kaine to a margin in the low 10s? Because if I get your scale right, that's what you are implying.

[IceSpear]

A lot of you guys are vastly underestimating Hawaii's swing. Hirono won by a relatively underwhelming margin (by the standards of a Hawaii Democrat) in 2012 because she was running against a popular former governor. She's going to romp by Inouye-esque margins this time.

Good point. Updated to reflect that.

Also, do you really think Stewart will hold Kaine to a margin in the low 10s? Because if I get your scale right, that's what you are implying.

He won by 6 in 2012 and I have him shaded in the 5-10% swing, so he could win by anywhere from 11-16, which fits in pretty well with my expectations.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A lot of you guys are vastly underestimating Hawaii's swing. Hirono won by a relatively underwhelming margin (by the standards of a Hawaii Democrat) in 2012 because she was running against a popular former governor. She's going to romp by Inouye-esque margins this time.

Good point. Updated to reflect that.

Also, do you really think Stewart will hold Kaine to a margin in the low 10s? Because if I get your scale right, that's what you are implying.

He won by 6 in 2012 and I have him shaded in the 5-10% swing, so he could win by anywhere from 11-16, which fits in pretty well with my expectations.

Which is exactly what I said (unless you want to be technical and argue that it's not the low 10s because it extends to 16 ).

Anyway, I really want to hope Kaine wins by at least 20 points. Stewart is f**king nuts even by modern GOP standards.

[IceSpear]

A lot of you guys are vastly underestimating Hawaii's swing. Hirono won by a relatively underwhelming margin (by the standards of a Hawaii Democrat) in 2012 because she was running against a popular former governor. She's going to romp by Inouye-esque margins this time.

Good point. Updated to reflect that.

Also, do you really think Stewart will hold Kaine to a margin in the low 10s? Because if I get your scale right, that's what you are implying.

He won by 6 in 2012 and I have him shaded in the 5-10% swing, so he could win by anywhere from 11-16, which fits in pretty well with my expectations.

Which is exactly what I said (unless you want to be technical and argue that it's not the low 10s because it extends to 16 ).

Anyway, I really want to hope Kaine wins by at least 20 points. Stewart is f**king nuts even by modern GOP standards.

I was getting technical. Low teens would be 11-13, mid teens 14-16, and high teens 17-19, right?

Stewart will likely do worse than Gillespie but it's hard for me to see him doing massively worse. Northam already completely romped in NoVa and I think that might be close to the Dem ceiling there for the time being. He also won places like Virginia Beach and Chesterfield. Of course, there's much more room for Stewart to fall in those two, but I don't think it would be anywhere near enough room for him to lose by 20+ points, especially since the rural areas of the state love him.

Of course, I also thought Roy Moore and Rick Saccone were inevitable, so maybe take my opinion with a grain of salt, LOL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I'm hoping that even some of the voters who are riled up by very transparent dog-whistling will have qualms about overt White supremacism. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see.